Don't know nothing means I know everything.
Thank you for the compliment.
There are no data even remotely to suggest that Roce will work in Tagrisso resistant patients since they are both in the same class of drugs. Also, why would anyone physician treat pre-Tagrisso patients with Roce when Tagrisso response data is better? Nice try to put a positive spin on lousy Roce data.
Billygoat: Actually your comment received the most thumbs down. You are better off being Joe Rogan
Clovis witholding key clinical information from investors is a joke. Clovis released the information only after pressure from the FDA. The overall Response Rate was shockingly low and Clovis kept it to themselves. Now with new clinical information out, the analysts are justified in lowering their target price since the fundamentals of cash flow, cost of cash, and future income have changed for Clovis. If you don't understand these basic principles, than you are not an investors but a gambler. PS. Las Vegas is not built on odds favoring gamblers.
Third line indication for ROCI is the death of ROCI since very very few patients survive to receive third line therapy. I agree with you that big companies want a pipeline and may takeover Clovis but nowhere near the $100 mark. Even with a 20% premium (which is very generous) it's about $32-35 at this point.
Clovis already admitted to the FDA the interim analysis of lower than expected Response Rate when FDA (the fool you claim) asked for more data. Clovis will not be $100 anytime soon. Get over it
(1) Clovis will not be trading near the $100 mark anytime soon. Overall survival rate was revealed to be in the 20% range(far lower than expected) and half of that compared to Tagrisso (Astra Zeneca's product). This revelation came during the FDA inquiry for more data. Even if approved, cannot compete with Tagrisso
(2) Because clinical information was with held from investors, there may be a merit for the law suites. Defending against law suites (even if you are in the right) costs money, hence faster cash burn rate and another 10% drop in value
(3) Now that FDA have requested more data, this can only mean (1) anticipated approval in march 2016 is scrapped and most likely if at all in 4th quarter 2016 or FDA may not approve at all since preliminary data shows Rociletinib inferior to Tagrisso. Without any anticipated income from Rociletinib, cash flow is going to be a problem
(4) Only hope really for Clovis is Rucaparib which is looking for an indication for recurrent ovarian cancer. Currently is in Phase II/III which is still within a decent time frame. Other products are too little too late to save Clovis.
What lies ahead? Immediate comes to my mind is dilution (you have to raise cash somehow especially with a burn rate of $160M loss per year- see 2014 income statement). Given that Goldman Sachs has downgraded Clovis to a target in the $20's, issuing more stocks at these prices is sailing against the wind. But Clovis may just have to do that. another possibility is a take over, but under the current condition and at these prices don't look for a big jump since Clovis have very little leverage at this point.
Final analysis- If you bought in the $100's I pray you did not buy on margins since prices will not rebound at this level for several years. Currently Clovis is a falling sword. Wait until the dust settles before jumping in.
Good luck trading
(1) IMGN has no inside ownership. This gives you an idea of how much management believes in their own company
(2) IMGN lives off of royalty which is pennies on the dollar compared to having their own product to sell rather than partnerships
(3) IMGN sold off its most lucarative revenue Kadcyla stream to put all their eggs into developing one product which has some obstacles to over come before reaching the market, meanwhile IMGN is flleecing investors to stay alive (Don't be surprised if IMGN down the road issue more shares causing dilution)
(4) As each day goes by, targeted therapy (which is what IMGN does) becomes more irrelvant as immunotherapy takes over the market
Play IMGN for the roller coaster ride but I don't see putting my retirement money on this stock.
Pros: Decent pipeline, Decent partnerships, dynamic oncology sector
Cons: Lousy financials, low insider ownership, one commercialized product
Bottom line: FDA approves 20% upside, FDA rejects look out below