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The Coca-Cola Company Message Board

instantwinbutton 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 12, 2014 12:39 PM Member since: Jul 20, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Look how easy it is...

    by alkkov Jul 10, 2014 5:52 PM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jul 12, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    Eww.. Sidelines is a bummer. And alkkov is not on the sidelines. He is making too much bank to go to the sidelines lol. He writes covered calls against positions and uses other hedging to protect when appropriate. I am not on the sidelines either. I am hedged up because i went short 4 10 year treasury futures with the 10 year yield at 2.51%. I actively trade within the bond market with a close eye on fed policy. All you need to know is that we are in the lower portion of the rate range and it's likely rates will rise over the remainder of the year and into the first quarter of next year as they try to get ahead of the curve (fed rate hikes will threaten the bond market). Strong jobs data suggests we are definitely on track for the fed to start raising rates in Q1 2015 or Q2 2015.

  • Reply to

    The end of Q2

    by hatedahft Jul 1, 2014 9:33 AM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jul 3, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    well 32% of the portfolio equity is in non-agency which has done really really well in Q2.

  • Reply to

    The end of Q2

    by hatedahft Jul 1, 2014 9:33 AM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jul 1, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    I see no reason that the stock couldn't move to $24, a slight premium to book value over the next 3 months. Earnings report should give a lift - along with analyst upgrades. This used to trade dollars per share above book. Also.. think about it this way.. as they build out the MSR platform... interest rate risk will drop because the MSR hedges a lot of rate risk.. So NAV vol drops but the returns stay high from the dividend income. Should be a winning situation for getting the stock back above book.

  • Reply to

    The end of Q2

    by hatedahft Jul 1, 2014 9:33 AM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jul 1, 2014 5:51 PM Flag

    Well you have non-agencies and agencies both up pretty good in Q2. And... non-agencies up more than agencies.. so... Book actually might be closer to $23 since spreads narrowed and non-agency is up so much. I am long 21,500 shares and 215 sept $20 call options @ 0.50/share cost.

  • Reply to

    MTGE & AGNC

    by hatedahft Jun 17, 2014 7:54 PM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jun 26, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    owen, that was 23,000 shares of CHMI

  • This is another situation of a rising NAV.. 10 year could drop below 2% in the coming months. GDP -2.9%.. wow. huge drop in Q1. OK. so... Agency mbs up. bonds up. NAV up.

  • Reply to

    MTGE & AGNC

    by hatedahft Jun 17, 2014 7:54 PM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jun 25, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    Not bad actually. I am long 8 contracts on the 10 year treasury futures and long 21,500 shares of MTGE. I think yields go to 1.6% on the 10 year. So a complete move back to the old levels. Go figure. BIG CIRCLE.. Now it's a game of who is overhedged LOL.

  • Reply to

    MTGE & AGNC

    by hatedahft Jun 17, 2014 7:54 PM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jun 24, 2014 8:31 PM Flag

    i'll never forget Q2 2013, when Grant (CYS) lost his #$%$ by 20% NAV hit vs MTGE's 6% NAV hit.

  • Reply to

    MTGE & AGNC

    by hatedahft Jun 17, 2014 7:54 PM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jun 24, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    well hatedahft, MTGE could be at an even bigger discount to book. Non-agency is outperforming agency mbs lately.. so.. maybe $22.40 to $22.80 book on MTGE not including dividend. MTGE should be able to push it's book value up... back to it's historic highs in the 24's.. especially if rates are still stuck in low vol mode and non-agency continues to do well. Yet the P/B is still really weak. Not much sense in that. When do we get back to trading at a multiple of book? 1.05x to 1.20x range. Alkkov, I don't think MTGE will run with more fed-funds risk. Being a hybrid gives you a larger spread, and i bet they keep on all the same swaps but just add MSR to give it less rate risk overall. Sure, limits the upside if rates move lower, but i think they are more focused on generating positive carry with a stable book value.

  • Reply to

    MTGE & AGNC

    by hatedahft Jun 17, 2014 7:54 PM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jun 17, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    You would think that the spread between MTGE and AGNC would shrink.. because you can sell AGNC and buy more shares of MTGE to get a higher yield while having less rate risk.

  • Reply to

    WOW...

    by sanemann Jun 13, 2014 12:11 PM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jun 13, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    oh lol. when i saw the headline named "WOW" i thought you were going to write about how you saved all this money by switching to geico so now you can buy more shares of agnc every month. This board has always been here for entertainment only. check out seeking alphas website and look up agnc there.

  • backing up the truck.

  • instantwinbutton by instantwinbutton May 29, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    2.40% on the 10 year treasury bond yield. WOW. lol. Yields have crashed down and problem is.. the economy is not all that weak. Job growth was really good last month and I feel that the negative GDP print was already priced in. So I went short 10 year treasury futures today. 4 contracts. This is a more long term short position and based on my belief that rates will go up over the next 12 months as the market shifts it's view to fed funds. Fed funds is likely to see increases in 2015 and 2016. Low rates like 2.40 on the 10 year bond will be a thing of the past. It's like the calm before the storm. lol. Sell AGNC here or buy long dated puts at an OOM strike because now is the best opportunity to hedge up or SELL and buy cheaper.

  • instantwinbutton instantwinbutton May 29, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    2.42 of the 10 year bond yield. I think this is the place to get short on rates. I like WMC here and I like being short the 10 year treasury bond futures. I went short the futures at 125'237 sell average, 4 contracts.

  • Reply to

    long 30,900 shares at 13.97

    by instantwinbutton May 11, 2014 2:14 PM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton May 12, 2014 8:20 PM Flag

    Reasons for $12? the company still has negative duration of 0.5 yrs. rates moving up again today so book should be higher than $15.

  • Reply to

    Had to sell

    by bobcc21 May 12, 2014 11:04 AM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton May 12, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    you'll be back when it drops to mid to low 9s... i bet... not a bad deal if the price comes down.

  • instantwinbutton by instantwinbutton May 11, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    a little early maybe but the value is clearly there. about 50% of my portfolio is in WMC. i think wmc is good for a long term investment because the book declines are out of the way... rate volatility is down... portfolio has a slight negative duration. cost of funds is fully hedged. The management expense is lowered. The portfolio is shifting to a higher concentration of non-agency assets which have a lot of upside potential.

    Age: 27
    ex-model/actor
    trader since jan 2008.

  • instantwinbutton by instantwinbutton May 7, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    Large discount to NAV. Book value growth to accelerate due to a lower distribution level. $10.25 PT

  • instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Apr 24, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    CYS is not a non-agency REIT. And you forgot RSO - which is a non-agency REIT. WMC and MTGE are hybrids... WMC has 50% of their portfolio in non-agency now. RSO is my favorite.

  • They can't go directly into non-agency that fast. So more agencies and the did offering right after paying dividend so no dilution to current earnings. So basically you have even a higher NIM and a NIM that has been averaged UP. So 0.67 to 0.80 dividend run rate. Went long 29,000 shares today

KO
41.97-0.29(-0.69%)Jul 11 4:00 PMEDT

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