0.55 core, 0.70 distribution in Q4... That is what i am estimating.
Really alkkov? Maybe you should post some supporting evidence? The rate sensitivity is pretty low at MITT, like 2% risk on 100 bp. And don't just post Q3 results because that doesn't tell us much. MITT did rebalancing and had no buy back in place thus the larger NAV drop. Also I spoke with IR and they are working on possibly incorporating some sort of buy back plan. So keep an eye out for a possible PR.
MITT still has the best value in terms of total risk/reward. If you think about it.. the rate risk sensitivity is the lowest, except for TWO, which has a much lower ROE. The most diversified and balanced portfolio for today's uncertain economic and interest rate outlook appears to be MITT, it also represents the best value on a price to book level.
Gary had to correct him on numerous occasions. It just didn't work out. That is what I was told anyways. The latest I have heard is that they will not be replacing him. Gary will assume control of both agency and non agency.
No, Anton because despite higher future returns via spread income... economic returns are likely to be positive for mreits going forward.. taper is mostly priced in and the extension risk is very little at this point. Basically, in short, rates will go up but slowly, assuming the economy continues to improve. Reinvesting while rates slowly go up will yield higher returns on the spread.
yes, i'm still in. Not going to be selling anytime soon. Agency only mreits have too much rate risk. MITT has the perfect balance right now, even MTGE is too much agency right now. The portfolio composition at mitt just looks nice as well. Diversified and prepared to really take advantage of higher rates when others are not...
Why not? take advantage of this.
if people only knew how much future earnings would improve due to wider spreads... they would not be trading these mreits down to 80c on the dollar. Earnings of $0.90 to $1.25/quarter range for MITT once taper is fully priced in and asset spreads are higher.
i bought 25,000 shares of MITT today. I think core earnings go up from here, and non agencies definitely appreciated a lot since quarter end. MITT is positioned well for operation taper.
I like how non agency has been doing really well.. i also like MITT's IOs. Just the overall portfolio composition is very nice @ MITT. From a risk/reward point of view - things definitely look good.
AP reported that the 204K was based on 5 weeks of employer survey collection instead of the standard four weeks, because of the gov shut down. Assuming the hiring each week is about constant, the 204K figure corrects to 163K, and yes, there is a bump up as retailers hire temps for holiday shopping. AP also reported that the bulk of hiring was for low wage jobs.
Well.. that works... Thanks for the cheap shares.
"Aikman : I know, I'm happy to get Kain but isn't MTGE better diversified into non-agency than AGNC? 1 day ago Packrat1987 : AGNC is purely agency, MTGE is hybrid (non-agency and agency). Agency mbs might seem scary because of rate exposure, but... 10 minutes ago Packrat1987 : remember Gary can manage that exposure and he is on the defensive right now. Credit risk is much more difficult to manage. Remember 2007. 10 minutes ago Packrat1987 : Gary doesn't manage the non agencies for MTGE, a guy named JEFF does. 9 minutes ago
Packrat1987: higher agency mbs prices and wider spreads equal higher dividends later when rates stabilize a new level. if rates go up 100 bp from here.. 6 minutes ago Packrat1987: Then most extension risk will be priced in. Short term rate increases will unlikely have a dramatic effect later down the road. 5.5% to 6.5% 5 minutes ago
Packrat1987: is the 30 yr normal.. see back in 2007 when the economy was hot and 06... you can see 6% or up 150 bp from here - fed funds was 4%ish. Seconds ago Packrat1987: So dividends will likely go back to $1.40ish or more until short term fed funds start going up.. then they will get squeezed again unless... Seconds ago•!Report Abuse Packrat1987: leverage goes up.. and they keep taking leverage up to offset narrower spreads." -Seeking alpha stock talks.
agnc is not invested in illiquid hard to value assets leveraged 10 or more to 1. they are invested in very liquid assets, mark to market daily. they actively manage the portfolio daily. its not the same at all. agnc isnt as scary either because you can buy protection using put options for time durations as short as 1 week or as far as leaps. when the stock starts to plummet just go for the put options and buy them for safety if you are worried. look, agnc is not taking on lots of risk right now. they are likely to move into MSRs like mtge. just a matter of finding the right company to service and hold the MSRs.
AGNC book likely down to $24.89 on that move from $25.27. Like 1.5% decline. WMC book probably down 4 to 5%, in case you follow that company.. oddly enough, the investors in WMC had no clue despite learning that WMC management had made a directional bet on MBS and was long TBA as well on 9.1x leverage. Big mistake.