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The Coca-Cola Company Message Board

instantwinbutton 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 28, 2014 9:22 AM Member since: Jul 20, 2012
  • Reply to

    The end of Q2

    by hatedahft Jul 1, 2014 9:33 AM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jul 1, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    I see no reason that the stock couldn't move to $24, a slight premium to book value over the next 3 months. Earnings report should give a lift - along with analyst upgrades. This used to trade dollars per share above book. Also.. think about it this way.. as they build out the MSR platform... interest rate risk will drop because the MSR hedges a lot of rate risk.. So NAV vol drops but the returns stay high from the dividend income. Should be a winning situation for getting the stock back above book.

  • Reply to

    The end of Q2

    by hatedahft Jul 1, 2014 9:33 AM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jul 1, 2014 5:51 PM Flag

    Well you have non-agencies and agencies both up pretty good in Q2. And... non-agencies up more than agencies.. so... Book actually might be closer to $23 since spreads narrowed and non-agency is up so much. I am long 21,500 shares and 215 sept $20 call options @ 0.50/share cost.

  • Reply to

    MTGE & AGNC

    by hatedahft Jun 17, 2014 7:54 PM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jun 26, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    owen, that was 23,000 shares of CHMI

  • This is another situation of a rising NAV.. 10 year could drop below 2% in the coming months. GDP -2.9%.. wow. huge drop in Q1. OK. so... Agency mbs up. bonds up. NAV up.

  • Reply to

    MTGE & AGNC

    by hatedahft Jun 17, 2014 7:54 PM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jun 25, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    Not bad actually. I am long 8 contracts on the 10 year treasury futures and long 21,500 shares of MTGE. I think yields go to 1.6% on the 10 year. So a complete move back to the old levels. Go figure. BIG CIRCLE.. Now it's a game of who is overhedged LOL.

  • Reply to

    MTGE & AGNC

    by hatedahft Jun 17, 2014 7:54 PM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jun 24, 2014 8:31 PM Flag

    i'll never forget Q2 2013, when Grant (CYS) lost his #$%$ by 20% NAV hit vs MTGE's 6% NAV hit.

  • Reply to

    MTGE & AGNC

    by hatedahft Jun 17, 2014 7:54 PM
    instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jun 24, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    well hatedahft, MTGE could be at an even bigger discount to book. Non-agency is outperforming agency mbs lately.. so.. maybe $22.40 to $22.80 book on MTGE not including dividend. MTGE should be able to push it's book value up... back to it's historic highs in the 24's.. especially if rates are still stuck in low vol mode and non-agency continues to do well. Yet the P/B is still really weak. Not much sense in that. When do we get back to trading at a multiple of book? 1.05x to 1.20x range. Alkkov, I don't think MTGE will run with more fed-funds risk. Being a hybrid gives you a larger spread, and i bet they keep on all the same swaps but just add MSR to give it less rate risk overall. Sure, limits the upside if rates move lower, but i think they are more focused on generating positive carry with a stable book value.

KO
42.05+0.26(+0.62%)Sep 19 4:03 PMEDT

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