price to book discount is too large to short. 7 percent mortgage rates mean nav falls to current stock price. also stock pays huge dividend from income earned.
Look, you need to get away from this TBT. It costs you management fees and everything. Go short the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures.
oh yeah,. and stock buybacks and future SPOs will add to NAV so they can grow NAV despite moves higher in rates or at least do a good job protecting it.
rates are not rising forever. 30 yr mortgage rate is 4.55 percent. if we go up 200 basis points in rates then we will be where we were when fed funds was 4 percent. long rates are going to trade range bound for a very long time then slowly rise back to historical norms after 1.5 yrs ahead of short rates assuming no recession happens. US economy bubble crashes every 5 yrs... just a bubble economy nothing more. inflation basically nonexistent.
It's OK, MAGIC, AGNC is great now. Hated at $19 and less, but LOVED above $19.25 and climbing.
Yes AGNC is all messed up. Probably the best opportunity to buy in a long time.
lol. BTW that was suppose to be a 12 months from now price target.
yep it's pretty #$%$ up. AGNC's nav is only down about 1.5 to 2% right now from Q3 levels yet the stock got blown up this quarter. They priced in a move to 6.5% mortgage rates and no rebalances LOL.
heres an idea.., liquidate agnc and give investors back $25 a share. $24.50 to $24.90 base book + q3 income.
if goldman says something it must right. where were they when the stock was trading at $25-$36? at the same time, GS's share position in AGNC has moved up hundreds of %. go figure. liquid assets here.. they deserve a liquid mark north of $24.
if you add the dividend income in not yet declared, book is about 0.55 to 0.65 a share higher than even that.