2014 is the building year for Intel. This is the year they get their ducks in a row. I agree, I think BK has got his hands firmly on the wheel of the ship now. But just the same, he told us that this year would be fairly flat. They are really getting to turn on the pain in 2015. In other words, you ain't seen nothing yet!
A couple of years ago when one of your many aliases was telling us all that nobody was going to buy Intel because ARM would be so firmly established did you expect to see this coming? Intel can bulldoze their way into a market and there is very little ARM can do about it. They are going after significant chunks of the market, leaving ARM to play musical chairs with the left over capacity. What's the first to fall, UMC? GloFo? We'll find out.
A couple of years from now when the manufactures are addicted to the rebates it will be at a much lower rate. Intel will get it's price. 2014 will be a distant memory.
For around the same price as an Apple iPad Air you can have a moderate, but nicely equipped PC. A 286 PC was $3000 back in the 80's, and that was in i 1980's dollars. The iPad has always been around $500 for their latest technology. Thus your story is probably more applicable to Apple than Intel.
2014 isn't going to be a super exciting year in tech for ARM. The out of order processing is exciting in it's own respect at 28nm. They are able to milk the 28nm cow for at least another year. But to keep going forward in node development will require money TSMC doesn't have and Samsung may have but has to weigh against other capital improvements for best ROI.
The other issue is that the demands for faster and better ARM processors just may not be as large as they think. ARM's CEO said that his focus is on cheaper ARM products for 3rd world countries. Do you think the third world wants 20nm planar or would they be happy with a 40nm phone that works for under $75? There will be a lot of money to be made and ARMH's bottom line will continue to improve as they sell more processors in large quantities. But the more they delay having cutting edge technology the more they rely on their old technology and the status quo until the day comes where they simply can't catch up to Intel.
The chat boards and bloggers are full of people who think that they know more than Intel. They claim that Intel has already lost the race so time to get out. Check out Intel's track record. It's full of beating the competitors to the same to newer and better technology. ARM won a round with the Apple A7. Cherish these memories, the day is coming when no ARM processor will outpace Intel. It may not be this year, maybe not even next but that day is coming. When it does, Intel will never lose the lead.
The GPU is the big money market for TSMC and NVidia. How many people can afford and would want a $500 t0 $1000 video card world wide? Could it e more than 50K? If TSMC can't go after this very low hanging fruit then 40 million iPhones are out of the question.
The BS articles they pay for are causing less and less damage all the time. It may be beyond their control.
The people who are most excited about this are journalist who love their iPads. We'll see how it does a year from now. And we'll see if it has any impact on the iPad losing market share to Android tablets that don't have this option. Nothing is helping Apple stop the bleeding.
Facebook will always be around. But trends in tech do come and go, such as AOL and zip drives. I think people will still use Facebook, but spend less time with it in the future. I see splinter of ages into various platforms. Google + is a very good platform, but it's a bit complicated. If your hobby is 1960's era Lionel trains you can find others who are into it faster on there than Facebook.
Office for iPad? I don't get it. Other than a Powerpoint presentation what's the use? The iPad still costs too much. There are many other Android devices with better bang for the buck. The only person who believes that corporations are rubbing their hands together waiting for Office for iPad is Crazy Ed. Office for iPad, joins the line of other endeavors like ARM/64 designed to give credibility and relevance to a product that is rapidly becoming the Cadillac in a price sensitive market. If Office for iPad was such a good idea, why did they have to wait this long to release it?
The idea of a vacation is not to write anything. But you're right. I think it's wise to bring along a laptop in case you need to get things worked on. My Samsung takes a USB keyboard with an adapter. That may be a better solution, bring a small keyboard
Excellent analysis! We were figuring a few years back that ARM would have problems at 20nm. Years from now when people ask me about ARM I will tell them that the indication that something was wrong was when I was watching stock footage of ARM (from a few weeks ago) and there was a crudely made sign that said "CPU Development Department" and a bunch of grad student looking guys not dressed all that well were mulling around circuit boards in a dingy looking building I knew this was too good to last.
ARMH has done very well, very bright people, great ideas, the right thing at the right time. What happens over the next couple of years with the ARM ecosystem is stuff that business schools will chew on for the next twenty years. They won't fade away but it will be clear their trajectory to the moon will come back down to earth.
My wife is out for a run right now with a friend. She may stop and talk to people along the way, but the one thing I can tell you for certain is that it's 9:01 AM West Coast time, and I've been up for four hours now and still no coffee! She likes to have fresh, hot coffee waiting for her when she gets home. If there is a device that would clamp onto the heal of her shoe or somewhere on her clothing that would allow the coffee pot to go off when she is within five minutes of home you'd bet she'd own it. Better yet, if she stops off at Starbucks it would cancel her request to make coffee.
You folks may think we're too connected and dependent on technology. I don't think we are anywhere near saturation. Just look how excited about apps people get. Now imagine if the apps had the power to control real things in your life like the lighting in your home.
I read the article by Rocco Pendola this morning, and he's convinced that wearables have no future. If they remotely do have a future, they won't come from Intel.
Consumers have such a profound lust for electronic consumer gadgets that currently isn't being met. The iPad proved that people will buy something and try to think of a use for it. But sooner or later the batteries get old and the technology just gets old which means that it's time for a replacement. How exciting is buying the next tablet, or smartphones when the novelty has worn off?
Consumers need to spend hard earned money on gadget and gizmos to provide a distraction in their lives. Something to admire, discuss, and figure out how it works. The IoT isn't one product or idea, and it's far larger than wearables.
Rocco Pendola should stick to writing about commodities.
The newest ARMH CEO was talking about this issue the other day, and why ARMH had no big announcements at the mobile conference. The big sales opportunity was in ultra cheap phones that are selling in third world countries. They are replacing feature phones. It's a nice model, ARMH gets paid and the foundries fight it out for each order against other foundries.
How will they be pushing the high end phones when they admit that this isn't where the growth is? How can they push new nodes if their isn't a client base to support it?
Oh come on now, Daniel Nenni promised us that 20nm was coming out faster than anticipated. Certainly this is some huge misunderstanding that Daniel will get down to the bottom of fairly quickly.
I've heard many people theorize that Apple really hates Intel and can't wait to get rid of them as a supplier. Intel has been a supplier for Apple since 2006, together they have worked on Thunderbolt and Thunderbolt 2. The newest version is one of the few solutions that can handle the throughput needed for 4K video editing. Tim Cook also seemed thrilled to announce the new Macbook Air's with Haswell processors.
Fab 42 is now empty, the machines that were supposed to fill it have been cancelled. If Apple were to give the green light for 10nm joint project processing how long would it take to fill the factory with equipment, validate it, and start the tape out process? A year or two? Perhaps with the iPhone 6s that would be a reality, but for now I don't see it. Which does beg the question, could Intel fill at least part of a huge new fab without word getting out on the streets?
"*ARM is going to be using 28nm for a long, long time" Part of the dynamic of the ARM economic model is that there are always consumers demanding high performance processors from ARM and are willing to pay the price. What most of us failed to see was that there would be a day of consumer indifference toward tablets and smartphones where their overall cash outlay was of primary concern. Foundries like TSMC now have to fight it's war on two battlegrounds. In order to drive the 20nm node they have to fight for business against Intel who will be pushing 14nm in x86 and fabbing 14nm ARM for non-competitors. Intel's first customer came at the expense of TSMC, more to follow. On the other end of the market they have to fight Mediatek. and GloFo for 28nm business. Expect pricing based on capacity. Those with the least amount of business will drop the price lower and lower to secure orders. It looks serious that Mediatek is out to secure orders against TSMC.
The one thing that Ashraf could do to help Daniel Nenni is explain some basic financial concepts. He keeps referring to crowd sourcing in the wrong context. As long as he's at it he can talk to him about the law of supply and demand, inferior goods, and the law of diminishing returns.