"the end users will only castrate their handset designers *if* Intel offers a genuine compelling experience and that will only come with better specs."
I disagree (surprise). This is true of Apple with the iPhone. But will someone who owns a Motorola Android phone only buy Motorola phones? Same with Samsung? One of the reasons why Android is growing is because the phones are often cheaper. As ARM has moved into quad core phones to me this signifies that they are running out of ideas. Does the average consumer really understand and appreciate the benefits of 4 cores in a phone? I'm not talking about the 13 year old boy playing Call of Duty on his phone, I'm talking adults.
Take a look at the top selling apps on the Play Store and the iTunes store. Do any of these apps really benefit all that much more from a quad core processor. Then take a look at the average consumer, they aren't so in love with the latest smart phones that they are ready to sign up for a two year contract. The pressure is on the carriers to offer services for less. Cheaper phones and cheaper plans is where I feel the industry is heading. I do think consumer will be willing to go generic private label on their smartphone if they can get unlimited phone/text/4G data for under $50 a month, going month to month after a year.
What you actually mean is to have one ISA that runs everything and that's a fair comment, but it goes the other way as well: why not go all ARM (in Apple's case)?
I think if Steve Jobs was alive today this would be his plan. When their stock is down $300 a share in a year stockholders are furious. The era of bold moves from Apple are over. The iPad Pro will be the open door for Intel with more to follow. Intel and Apple have a good working relationship as can been seen with Thuderbolt. Apple and Samsung, not so much. Perhaps they will have better luck with the Taiwanese? Speaking of TSMC, how are those 28nm yields?
You're going to own that comment going forward, and I won't let you forget you said it.
As I mentioned in another post you know nothing about American pride and even less about Intel, the market, or what manufactures want. I think you are the same cry baby who was mad about what Intel did to AMD. Did you lose your job at AMD, is this is what your rants are about?
I know that rebate and advertising programs are too complicated for you to comprehend so I'll break it down into terms you understand.
The ARMH stock is positioned as the next Google, Apple, or whatever company that exploded. It's being sold to people too stupid to do their due diligence. It's an $8 stock with a $40 premium. The "PC era is over" story has been proven false. But ARMH has it's well crafted talking points and 20 years from now it will still sell at a premium to people still too stupid to do their due diligence. Stupid people with money are easy to find.
ARMH has had a lead in the mobile space. Over the past couple of years instead of expanding the lead as Intel catches up ARM has been floundering. Problems with 28nm production, gate first vs last debate, big/little may or may not really work. Their solution? Quad core smart phones.
As Warren East, the former CEO of ARMH said was that he welcomed Intel into his market because it was good competition. But then he realized what it really meant and quit before he had to be held accountable.
Intel is going to run through the market with the best transistors in the world while ARM flounders. Then they are going to throw money around. Lots of it, sums that your little mind can't grasp. It will go into promotions and advertising campaigns. Some will make you think that Intel is so hated that they can never get a meeting with the large phone manufactures. Nice try. ARM suppliers have screwed up way too many times and the industry is seeking alternatives. The doors will fly right open for Intel.
You know nothing about American pride, and even less about Intel and what's about to transpire.
5% huh? That's pretty good considering that two years ago you were saying how X86 would never be in a phone. Android is perhaps most processor ambivalent. Both Apple and Microsoft have the dream of one OS from PC to phone. Intel can make that happen.
Intel will have a ton of capacity coming on in 2014. All it takes is some success with first tier handset manufactures to move numbers. But if that fails they have the cell phone service providers to go after directly. They can source Taiwanese jobbers to make private label phones for the big four carriers at half the price. Mention Intel in the ad and half of it i paid for.
5%? Far too low. Guys like you think in specs, and ARMH talks in press releases. Intel throws money around on the street. Tier one suppliers can choose to ignore Intel if they wish, and get castrated at the client level. It will at the very least put downward pricing pressure on the rest of the industry. Thus my only question is which route does Intel choose to go? Tier one phone supplier or jobber/private label?
Intel, the PC microprocessor giant, grabbed just 0.2 percent revenue share in the smartphone applications processor market in 2012. Intel's upcoming Clover Trail+ dual-core x86 Atom chip could help in 2013."
That number will increase ten fold in 3 years. With an improving economy ARM can both lose market share to Intel and further grow it's business Unless, of course, you feel that the pie will shrink in the future. I don't!
Nice PR double speak. Like I've said many times before the concept of Windows RT was conceived years ago when the "PC era is dead" idea was more believable. In that time we saw WebOS come and go, and the Playbook do nothing, More importantly we saw Apple who made 85% of its margins from ARM based devices store away more cash than the net worth of 1/3 of the countries on the planet. The stock soared to over $700 only to watch it fall well into the $300 price range in the same year.
The real problem with Windows RT is that it's four years too late to the party. Had it been around during the time of the iPad introduction it would have stood a change. Did Apple have a head start? No, Microsoft had a tablet back in 2000. Not only that but they had a 15 year working history with Windows Mobile. Microsoft's relationship with ARM dates back to the mid 90s. I was using Windows Mobile devices in the late 90's.
With the rich history of code Microsoft would be silly to abandon Windows RT (Mobile). Synch, the in car entertainment system is based on Windows Mobile. There may be some embedded apps with ARM processors that Microsoft has it's eye on in the future that can help it make back the money it has lost on RT. But to be very clear, ARM added nothing to Microsoft's bottom line. The outstanding quarter it's seeing is due mainly to sales of computers with Intel processors (AMD and XBox withstanding). This gives proof that the PC era isn't over by a long shot. Windows Phone and RT are on the books in the meantime. Microsoft is currently rethinking the future. Windows 8 was meant to be one interface from server to phone. Nobody can better deliver on this than Intel, and Microsoft is slowly realizing it.
i did, Steve Heller was talking about it on MF. It makes perfect sense, running Bay Trail. The overall fudd from ARM fans is that there is a lot of competition out there, and Intel will have a hard time standing out . The competition out there is between other ARM SoCs. Intel will be the first real competition ARM has.
The iPad Pro with an Intel Bay Trail processor can run OS/X. Tell me that's not appealing? Apple will love it because it will bridge their huge iPad market to their much smaller OS/X market and hopefully open the door to computer sales.
Of the many, many options out there from ARM, some with arguably better specs than an Atom quad core, which one can do this in non-emulation mode? That's why if you're betting against Intel, sooner or later time will run out on you.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Just curious, do you own any Windows RT devices? If you don't you shouldn't feel too bad. Nobody else owns any Windows RT devices either.
Here's the new talking point, Moore's Law will fail in 2030. Yes, 17 years from now there can be a problem than Intel won't be able to address in the next decade. #$%$? Somehow an analyst out there pulled this little fecal mater pellet out his read end and is somehow relating it back to some kind of advantage for ARM. Come on ARM fans, tell us all how this works. Seriously, I don't get it. Is this some half brained attempt to create uncertainty about Intel? If so this isn't just grasping at straws, it's grasping at the empty air where the straws used to be hoping to hold onto some residual molecules.
Yikes! Things are much worse than I thought for TSMC. Looks like Nenni needs to start making plans for selling used cars sooner than later.
Hey ARM fans, what do you have to go up against Haswell in a step up processor in June?
His qualifications make him suitable for advertising sales or janitorial supply sales in his local area. Career moves he'll have to contemplate as the fabless model is forced to cut fat in order to compete.
This was Microsoft's version of being like Steve Jobs era Apple. See a vision, execute on it, damn the torpedoes. Now they are questioning every decision they made. The only question now is how much more money will they want to lose on RT?
I always felt an interesting move Intel could do is to more or less drop the prices of 22nm and 14nm SoC's down to a point that it would be cost prohibitive for ARM to pay for the 20nm nodes. Intel could pick up market share while keeping ARM at bay. Then it could resume more normalized margins when ARM isn't a serious factor in a few years. Some variation of this idea probably is the strategy for taking over the high end phone and tablet market. I think the way that they'll get by with doing this is with a serious rebate program where sales are counted in one quarter and the rebates paid the following quarter. With growing sales quarter over quarter the rebates paid out will get diluted.
I enjoy Wallis's contributions as well. He's a wealth of valuable information.
I disagree however with the valuation of ARMH. It seems that for every hour of R&D they do they add three hours of spin and hype to the market. They have enough talking points that they release over and over again to people who are more or less clueless investors. It's not simply good enough to invest in large established companies, everybody has to look for the rising star that nobody's really heard of in the real world. Do people know ARM? Go ask any teenager who has a phone about what processor is inside and they'll probably say "I donnu, Intel?" The unknowing have more dollars than sense to put into the market. ARM is going to run up, then drop back, then run up and drop back and run up over and over again. It's a Yo-Yo stock that can be influenced by hype and ignorance. And those two things aren't in short supply.
I'm looking forward to seeing Intel cross the $30 threshold. Honestly, it probably would be there now if it wasn't for Windows 8. Also having a press friendly CEO who speak in sound bites would be more helpful. But I do foresee an improving world economy just in time for Intel's new 14nm FABs. The newer technology means newer possibilities for phones and tablets.
American Tower. It wouldn't surprise me if they are doing a song and dance to get the stock up then having the executives sell some of their shares and using the proceeds to fund the company. The only thing that is really good about what they do is that they own a lot of real estate. The bad news is that they have a declining client base. Unless of course some retro phase of pagers suddenly comes back into style.