I held a position in HP until today. I bought it cheap and watched it pick up over 40% in the past couple of years I got out not because it was a bad stock. I just feel it's grown fast over the past couple of months and anything but an upside surprise won't move the stock. I'm calling it to be flat to a slight miss. HP may drop as much as ten percent in the near term.
The impact on Intel on a miss will occur for the last two days of this week. But, next week I think it will be long forgotten, unless it's a blood bath. So far HP's reorganization has gone well But they can make this past quarter look like anything they want. They can show PC growth, or they can sandbag it.
Even if HP is inline with estimates I still see about a 5% drop due to a fast run up on the stock in the short term. The impact on Intel won't be that great. If HP has a blow out quarter (which I doubt) Intel may fly past $35.
Keep your eyes on HP over the next couple of days. One thing that got me a bit worried was a recent upgrade on HP. The big boys may want out right about now.
Where ARM needs to be right now in order to take on Intel at the 14nm level is to have 28nm be the defacto tried and true technology that has been out in high volumes for years. 20nm needs to be roughly where 28nm really is right now, in general high production, and easy to obtain.
ARM is about to do battle with Intel not at the 20nm level but with 28nm. 14nm will steal business from those needing higher performance in the near term which in a very real way helps fund the ARM 20nm production.
The real question is going to be as a designer do you want stay the course with ARM or switch to Intel? How soon will it be before you can really get your hands on ARM 20nm? When will ARM 16nm really come out? At what price? What are Intel's plans? Will you be fighting Intel with a very expensive ARM 20nm when Intel is flooding the market with 14nm? Could your competitors get a lead on your designs and offer similar technology for much less?
Should be interesting to see Intel's design wins over the next year.
Hyper hread this it's 24 cores. Fun for a desktop but killer in a server. Soon enough it will be at 14nm. This is why Intel is hard to beat in servers.
This is the same management that told the industry in no uncertain terms that this year would be flat. When they made this statement the stock was somewhere in the 24 to 26 range. So the increase is icing on the cake of what should be a pretty dismal year. The dividends come out of retained earnings. When you look at the weighted average cost of capital retained earnings tend to be the most expensive money you can get your hands on. However when you pay it out it simply means that you have no better use for the money. Intel is eating cash like there is tomorrow. It's one of the rare companies that can do this. Its on a race for market domination. To do this it's going to need every penny it can get it's hands on. By next year we'll see who is at 14nm finfet and who is talking about 16nm finfet. By this point the industry will be forever changed.
As for me, though I don't own ARMH I am happy about this. I'll take this win even on a technicality. The reason why is because if ARMH were to lose steam now it really cannot be fully attributed to Intel as of yet. The entire narrative would be lessening demand in the tech industry and Intel would suffer as a result.. The short term narrative could pull down Intel's stock price at a time that it's experiencing new highs. Strange how bad news for AMD didn't affect Intel but ARMH just possibly could.
Yawn. Okay, so you want us all to believe that there is some psychotic pr1ck who comes on this board and pushes mainly Wallis Weaver around day after day. You and Wallis Weaver, day after day. Focus on you and Wallis Weaver day after day. Posts by you and Wallis Weaver day after day. Most people don't have time for this. Except someone who is an accountant and finds it funny to host multiple personalities day after day. I can call you at home if you'd like to discuss this further.
Here's a topic that doesn't involve a personality on this board. ARMH was up huge after hours but this is what was also reported.
ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH) was maintained as Neutral but saw its price target cut in overseas coverage at Citigroup. When you translate the U.K. to U.S. prices, it implies upside of just under 3% now, rather than almost 15% upside previously.
I don't care what industry we're talking about, when an industry has a finite amount of demand for capacity and more capacity gets added it's going to have huge ramifications. When Intel continues to add capacity next year things will only get worse for ARM Fabs.
John Kerry in charge of forigen policy is about as bad as Eric Holder as Attorney General. There was no serious Republican candidate during the last election, but one out of the peanut gallery nearly beat Obama.
Next election it will be a centrist right versus centrist left, not centrist left versus the extreme right.
We have Obama and John Kerry in charge of international affairs with Joe Biden as backup. Eric Holder is handling things state side. The Middle East is being taken over by extremists, Hammas is out of control and making the Palestinians pay, women and children are migrating to Texas/Arizona at alarming rates And now Russia is shooting down commercial aircraft full of civilians. What could possibly go wrong?
Every second term President gets thrown under the bus. In Obama's case, the critics have a lot of ammo.
Are you counting on something grand like the A8 being made by TSMC on 20nm planar? Because without something like this I don't get how TSMC gets enough volume to really get the yields in line. You cannot get any of us to believe that TSMC has the yield issues worked out up front. Other than graphics cards and iPhones I just don't know who will pay the premiums for this technology.
I am in at much lower rates. I've made money in the dividends for years. Unless Intel did an ARMH run up to $54 in a very short period of time where I felt confident that it wouldn't hold I would sell the stock. Otherwise this is a nice long position to hold.
You never know, a few design wins, and a a few nice articles and this stock can go into orbit without the ability to stick. You can sell, wait and then buy back your position with more shares added. Right now this run up is with merit and I don't see a major crash coming anytime soon. Thus I just smile and hold on.
The predictions last week was $32 a share. Seemed like it would take a while to work up there. Now that we're nearly half way there the question becomes where to from here?
I don't Covello is as stupid as people on here say he is. He's instead a manipulator. When you send your kids to the local state college for a degree in finance chances are very likely that they will never be the big league financial analyst to work a position like Covello. As bright as Ashraf is and as much as he's got going on he may not achieve this level either.
In the real world if you're a sales rep for a large drug company and you're seen having lunch with your direct competitor who covers the same territory you can both end up in jail for collusion. When it comes to the SEC they aren't for whatever reason as hard core about the cozy relationships between the folks at different financial houses. They all know of each other and many of them have good relationships with their direct competitors.
When you want to execute a large purchase on Intel there are plenty of analysts who are rating Intel as a "buy" at a price target of $32 to $36. What happens if you're the guy who bought Intel at $24 and rode it to $26, then bought it again when it went back down to $24? Intel was a fairly safe range play. Then as you sold at $28 you decided to short some stock because you knew that a few of your buddies at the other firms were going to do a downgrade on Intel. But as you did this Intel raises guidance and suddenly you're screwed? You can always point to Mr. Covello and plead the case that Intel is overbought. as your company has to cover.
Covello is a professional #$%$, you accomplice in crime should you need him.
I get not liking a corporation. One of my friends is after Monsanto and posts night and day about that company. But at least she doesn't go on chat boards and pick fights with random strangers who are investors. It's one thing to feel powerful, but he/she just resorts to name calling.
i think I hurt him/her when I mentioned that his/her talking point of Intel being at the same stock price range for ten years is no longer true. There were about five talking points at one point, now there are less. Still plenty of insults. Oh well.