I can tell by the way you write that you are an engineer. I am willing to bet you either have an EE degree or have been associated in the field for a very long time. I love how engineers have a cause and effect relationship with design and market share. The best design doesn't always win. They don't.
" if the CPU benchmark scores are legitimate," If you're suspect of the results why should I trust them?
"ARM is talking about $75 phones with LTE this year..."
Is this a business plan or simply a talking point for ARM? To me it sounds like a talking point. Here's what a business plan sounds like.
"Mr. AT&T. Yes you've noticed the recent influx of Chinese made smartphones in the market. Consumers don't know how good they are or where to go if there is a problem. We have sourced these five jobbers in China to make phones. We have sourced the raw materials down to the injection molding with your logo on it and ours a well. You can offer them in these colors and styles. We'll make the injection molds for you. In fact we'll change them for you slightly a few times a year so your customers will have a hard time finding cases online. They will have to buy them from you and you can sell an accessory pack as well to bring in even more margins. We will audit the phones for our own quality control. If one dies within 18 months we'll credit you for a replacement. Consumers can buy the phone with confidence knowing that it will last. Since it's your phone you'll never have to update Android if you choose not to. But if you do want to push out an update it will be your call how you would like to do it. The phone will have the Intel logo on the outside so they can buy with confidence. In the ads for the phone if you mention Intel we will pay for half the ad. "
Will Qualcom, Nvidia, Microtek or any other supplier be so bold? No, they are in bed with A&B tier handset suppliers. Will they help pay for ads?
Oh, the old "Scale and volume" enlargement. We've heard this for years. Intel grabbed 46 million tablets from ARM last year. Market share on phones will be even easier. When the smartphone market goes generic people won't really care what's inside. Thanks for ignoring servers. Who anointed Intel an over 90% marketshare in that space? Certainly not IBM! Taking market share is something Intel has a long history of doing very well.
I thought about your question and here's the best way to answer it. Where ARM blew it happened over a year ago. The iPhone had current technology, but not always the latest technology. That changed in the 5s when it went to 28nm 64 bit. The largest smartphone manufacturer now has the most current processor in their phone. This ensured that other manufactures who also want current technology will be six months to a year behind Apple in the latest nodes. I am seeing a lot of different specs about where Intel 14nm will land against Apple's A8. For argument sake we'll say it's behind, but not far behind in benchmarks.
I believe what you said is correct a year or two ago. Intel will be pushed out of the A and B tier handset manufactures. The C-tier manufactures ( C for Chinese) are going to be private label for for carriers made with a few different SoC's or SiPs from Intel. But Intel will design an array of phones based on a few different SiPs or SoCs. and source everything and pay for the injection molds. ARM will do the same thing as well. Intel of course can help support the carriers with paying for advertising. Carrier specific generic phones featuring Intel Inside.
This is the C-tier handset manufactures eating the market share away from ARM by offering premium cell phone technology at the $200 price point. The fight will be with ARM at 20nm. How will ARM 28nm do against 14nm from Intel? Demand for 28nm and older nodes will die off as orders fall off. This concept is called 'Inferior technology." Intel did it with servers and will do it with phones. It's not top down, it's bottom up market penetration.
ARM isn't dead at 20nm. But they will start to face real competition from Intel starting now going into full pain mode within a year. The fabs that can afford to push 20nm aren't the ones to worry, for now. The backlog will occur at 28nm and older. They will be fighting for fewer and fewer orders over the next year or two. You'll start to see some of them close. As Intel predicted eventually there will be two titans. Intel and ? Samsung? TSMC? Stay tuned.
He's doing what is called a "solid." Some institutions need to buy in on Intel. They got a slight discount. This downgrade will be forgotten in a couple of days.
Every few months somebody buys big into Intel and the stock goes up a little, down a little but basically remains flat. They get frustrated and dump it, but first they need to come on here and vent about what a POS it is and why we're all bag holders.
It's a stock that pays a good dividend, and in the case of those of us who bought in at much lower share prices it pays a fantastic dividend. Looking down the road the stock is poised to do well long term. I think the news today will freak out a few major investors and the stock may sell off over the next. As long as analysts aren't lining up to downgrade the stock it should bounce back and be around $37 and change later on this quarter. IF the market drops this quarter than of course Intel will be affected.
Today I am gong to, as my hip-hop DJ's say "Kick and old school jam." Back in the day (about five years ago) Paul Otellini, then CEO of Intel was in the hot seat. It had become clear that Intel missed the boat in smartphones as sales skyrocketed and the Intel stock remained stationary. At an investors meeting he made an interesting announcement. For every 622 ARM based smart devices sold they needed one additional Intel server. The profitability on the one server was greater than the 622 smartphones. Keep in mind that this was a time before the $59 smartphones at Walmart.
When it comes to mobile devices it's a race to the bottom. ARM has made no secret that they want to expand sales into 3rd world countries. These are very price sensitive markets. With most of the planet living on $10 a day or less this means that price is the limiting factor.
As the mobile craze further reaches into new markets this means more server sales for Intel. The other push for servers is the Internet of Things (IoT). Cameras that come off your wrist and fly away, snap a blurry picture and return may not be in our future. But things like controllers for sprinkler systems that create custom watering routines for grass based on stats gathered by weather forecasts and amount of shade at different times of the year the area receives would be beneficial. Most of the work would be done on the back end my Intel servers. There are many practical examples that are useful but perhaps not as sexy as smart baby monitors and sports watches.
Back in 2008 I wondered what the next era would be all about. Would it be a software driven era or a hardware driven era. I bet on hardware. Looks like it was a good bet.
The ARM processor is basically strong enough and good enough to have powered RT devices. They could have powered many interesting and innovative Windows RT laptops. Most of the failure of RT should be pointed at Microsoft and not ARMH. It was mostly based on a new ecosystem, the Windows Metro Apps was based on Microsoft's version of the iTunes store model.. Had this really taken off to the point where consumers didn't care that the ARM processors couldn't run legacy Windows programs RT would have been a success. When Microsoft made the decision to include ARM during the era of the first iOS devices it seemed like a good decision. Now that Intel has power and performance covered on all fronts RT really isn't needed.
The other half of the equation is if you believe ARM has enough capacity to satisfy demand for its products today. If we're talking nodes of 28nm and larger then yes I do think that this is the case. When Intel brings in extra capacity, especially pointed toward the newer smaller nodes this somewhat impacts demand for the newer nodes from ARM (20nm and smaller). More importantly the extra capacity means that older nodes for ARM (28nm and larger) need to fight harder for the remaining orders. We've seen this before, older technology fighting to stay alive with too many competitors with fewer and fewer orders. You know how this story ends.
If you bought Intel thinking it's going to go to 80 next month then get out now It doesn't work that way. If you hold onto the stock it will pay a dividend and over time it will move up to a healthy new level. If you have a small position just hold onto it and forget you own it. Check back in a year and it will most likely surprise you.
Obama has been keeping quiet for the most part and his approval ratings are going up. But time and time again he's proven to be a huge self-righteous blowhard that has to weigh in on key issues. Enjoy the temporary rise. He'll get nothing done with Republican house and senate as long as his definition of compromise is "Do as I say, it's the right thing to do." If you think the economy is so great then why don't you try to refinance your house, and let us all know how easy it is to do. You can thank your Democratic idols Dodd and Frank for that one. Obama has been president for six years and still the Democrats blame Bush for everything wrong with the world and praise Obama the slightest positive change. Obama was pitched as the guy who would unite America, but he'll go down in the history books as the most divisive president we've ever had.
A little competition won't hurt anybody. ARM won't get the benefit of having a decade to perfect it's technology in expensive consumer gadgets before mounting a stand against Intel. They are posing a challenge on day one. Intel knows how to respond to server competition.
That is an amazing price. It's in store only and it's for a Windows 8 tablet. If you get one you'll struggle for space with the OS taking over. My advice is to to spend an additional $50 and get the latest Memo 7 also with the same processor. It's from Asus. Instead of the TN panel that this has it has an IPS panel and has Android KitKat. What you would find is it's more efficient with the small amount of internal hard drive space and RAM that these devices offer. Microsoft really needs to figure out how to scale back Windows 8.1 to work with these smaller spaces. But you can put in extra storage for not a lot of money. You can also hook up an external keyboard, mouse and monitor and use this as a full Windows machine. It's really a cute little device! Not super fast, but not like the Atoms of yesteryear.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I know it would seem like I would come down on Apple like a ton of bricks, but what can they do? With gossip bloggers spending months posting article after article about "leaked photos" of the newest iPhone Apple has no privacy. It's a victim of it's own success.
When Google released the first Nexus they more or less gave it to their employees and let them photograph it , use it and write about it. I suggest Apple do the same thing. There are no more secrets, the photos are leaked before it even gets off the factory floor.
I got to talk to a gal today in my neighborhood. I know of her growing up, she was brilliant beyond belief. Breezed through the IB program in her high school, college was fairly easy for her and now she works at Intel. She's used to dealing with complex abstract thoughts day in and day out
I don't want to mention what she does because Intel doesn't look too kindly on people who discuss their work outside the office. All I can say is that it has to do with servers. When you hear someone as smart as she is talking about the struggles of dealing with large scale servers it makes me think that Intel is so deep and so far beyond the competition in this market that there is little chance that the competition can catch up in any meaningful way.
I am not saying that it is impossible for the competition to take on an Intel. IBM could bring back the PowerPC and spend billions of dollars to catch up with marketshare. They have the power do do this, just not the will. Apple could do it as well though it would take them years to even catch up. A Samsung? Anybody else wouldn't have the resources to go up against Intel. They are diving the gap between them and the competition even further.
Looks like Intel has figured it out.
"ntel Corp is close to announcing an investment in Chinese-government affiliated mobile chipmakers Spreadtrum Communications and RDA Microelectronics, its latest move to catch up in a smartphone chip industry led by Qualcomm Inc, according to two sources with knowledge of the plan.
It was unclear how much Intel is paying or what portion of the companies the U.S. chipmaker is buying. The acquisition could be made through Tsinghua Unigroup, a government-affiliated private equity firm controlled by Tsinghua University in Beijing, one of the sources said. Tsinghua Unigroup owns Spreadtrum and RDA.
Intel, which has struggled to gain traction in the smartphone and tablet market, recently has sought to partner with mobile chipmakers in the hope they can help it gain the market dominance it has enjoyed with personal computers."
How soon before anybody else but Apple will get the TSMC 20nm? A year? Maybe more. This was good move on Apple's part, to cut off a good source of supply at 20nm by taking up production at the largest FAB.
I don't hear anybody in the real world raving about the performance of the iPhone 6 and how they need to dump all other iPhones. The benchmark results are mixed, from their own internal findings that are echoed by Nenni that they got better performance out of the die shrink than anticipated To other benchmarks that rate it at a whopping 5% better.
But I do love that you have an article touting that TSMC is gong to get Finfet. Not only a week ago Daniel Nenni was online promoting the fact that the bubblegum numbers that were thrown out in the industry of superior performance on 20nm planar proves that Finfet doesn't bring anything to the party. And this week you're celebrating Finfet. So, what is it? Is Finfet worthwhile or not?
I am not seeing dramatic improvements in performance and consumers are #$%$ about battery life. Could it be that the A8 isn't scaling?