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Myriad Genetics Inc. Message Board

into_something_good 83 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Jul 9, 1999
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  • into_something_good into_something_good 18 hours ago Flag

    A deadline of 9/29 has been set for pretrial filings in Myriad vs. Ambry concerning the requested preliminary injunction denied by the Federal Circuit Court in SLC last year. Arguments will be heard 10/6. I don't know if these arguments will be to overturn the decision or if they merely concern ancillary matters.

    Also, the number of patent pirates have been reduced to 5 by my count: Ambry, Invitae, GeneDx, Counsyl, and DGX. Genome Liberty and Pathway Genomics, as well as GenebyGene earlier, have backed off.

    DGX is awaiting a S. CA court decision on the validity of Myriad patents not considered by the Supreme Court. There are 2 problems with this tactic: 1. another judge could reverse the S. CA court and 2. the licensed patents of 3 other research entities are probably not being considered (only 4 of the 11 patents brought against GeneDx belong to Myriad, the other 7 are licensed by Myriad).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Media buzz.

    by into_something_good Sep 18, 2014 8:14 AM
    into_something_good into_something_good 20 hours ago Flag

    I may have a computer problem, but my Yahoo! charts show a clear 1 week uptrend and a clear 30 day uptrend and a clear 1 yr. uptrend. I have no idea what "evidence" you need to demonstrate an uptrend.

    In addition, the gross margin on Prolaris is only 48%. The CMS funding would almost certainly be lower than the current market rate, and may, in fact, lead to a loss for every CMS funded test, at least until economies of scale kick in due to the increased market size. Hence, CMS funding could clearly be a negative for the bottom line, rather than the positive you foresee. Most recipients of Medicare also have "medi-gap" coverage, hence no co-payment under Obamacare. The longer CMS holds off, the better, IMHO.

    You are certainly entitled to your opinions. It would be nice if you would concede that others on this board are also entitled to their opinions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • into_something_good by into_something_good Sep 18, 2014 8:14 AM Flag

    There is currently a considerable amount of bullish media buzz, which should translate in continuing the uptrend, especially now that the Fed meeting is behind us. If we can get through resistance at 40, and the even firmer resistance at 42.50, then it's "To the moon, Alice!!!!!".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • into_something_good into_something_good Sep 14, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    In view of the article by Dr. King in the current issue of JAMA advocating universal gene testing for women, I predict that the outcome will make the bounce due to the Angelina Jolie publicity bounce look like a mole hill compared to the huge mountain of revenue that can result from Dr. King's advocacy.

    The Angela Jolie publicity led to a relatively small population of women who empowered themselves to seek testing. The JAMA article will encourage doctors with integrity to seek testing for the ultimate best interests of their patients. Further, this call for universal testing may lead to the AMA to reverse their sexist attitude to oppose allowing women to be informed of the condition of their own bodies so that they may decide what is best, in consultation with their doctors. Knowledge is power: knowledge of their status will allow the vast majority of women, as Dr. King argues, to go about their lives with knowledge of their negative status, while giving those testing positive time to consider various treatment alternatives.

    There are over 50M women in the U.S. between the ages of 30 and 55, with only about 1M having been tested to date. If only 75% are ultimately tested, and Myriad can ramp up capacity, the potential testing of 37.5M, at 500K/mo. revenue ramps up to about $1B/mo. in the Women's Health division alone, compared to less than $1B/yr. for the entire company at the present time. Given that there is no co-pay for the tests under Obamacare, there is no sane reason to oppose getting tested.

    With this q. ending 9/30/14, there will be little or no effect until the Dec. q., which will be reported in Feb./15.
    A sizable ramp up could force the analysts to wake up and smell the profits, as opposed to their current ignorant concern for the competition of the 7 patent pirates.

    JMHO, of course. Be sure to do your own DD.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • into_something_good into_something_good Sep 10, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    This was reported in the Science section (p. D3) of yesterday's NY Times. The researcher, Mary-Claire King, came up with the connection between mutant BRCA1 and cancer: she discovered the gene, not the test for it. She proposed that screening should include "all women 30- or older for cancer-causing genetic mutations" with no exceptions such as for family history. She also said "you only needed to be tested once, and the vast majority of women will not have a mutation and can go about their life." and "women who do learn they have a mutation that's comparable to Angelina Jolie's and confers very high risk can begin to think about what that means". She also argued: "Why should women be protected from information that will empower them and allow them to control their lives? We don't need that kind of protection".

    A common recommendation is to have the ovaries removed by age 40 because ovarian cancer is difficult to diagnose early and, also, removing the ovaries may reduce the risk of breast cancer.

    Universal testing of women is coming, IMHO. That's over 1M women in the U.S. alone turning 30 each and every year.

    The article also describes how she came up with her discovery.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • into_something_good into_something_good Sep 7, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    Each country has its own patent law. This could be a precursor for similar rulings in Canada and Europe, which are key countries because they have single payer health insurance systems, which similar to Medicare, except that the whole population qualifies.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • into_something_good by into_something_good Sep 4, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    Zacks bought a position during the 2nd q., with MYGN trading in the 35-42.50 range.

    I expect they will probably be posting positive reports in the months ahead in order to boost their position, and will probably add to their position with any weakness below their entry point.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Will history ryyme?

    by into_something_good Sep 4, 2014 9:14 AM
    into_something_good into_something_good Sep 4, 2014 9:16 AM Flag

    Excuse the typo: rhyme. The line comes from Mark Twain: "History does not repeat but it rhymes".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • into_something_good by into_something_good Sep 4, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    According to Zacks, UTHR won a patent infringement case that resulted in the shares rising 28.5% on the news, touching a new 52 week high. A win in any one of the MYGN cases, an extremely likely probability, could result in a similar move, if not even a greater move for MYGN shares, considering the huge short position overhang.

    JMHO, of course. Be sure to do your own DD and beware the nonsensical rants of the totally unethical short sellers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    predictive value of myrisk emerging!

    by newtwo99 Sep 3, 2014 11:43 PM
    into_something_good into_something_good Sep 4, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    This is great news and should impact the 8% of the market taken by the patent pirates. Any doctor prescribing the inferior tests of the "competition" will probably open themselves to malpractice charges.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    S&P Raises Fair Value 8/30 to $48.10

    by into_something_good Sep 3, 2014 8:45 AM
    into_something_good into_something_good Sep 3, 2014 8:49 AM Flag

    That should have read $12.66 above yesterday's close.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • into_something_good by into_something_good Sep 3, 2014 8:45 AM Flag

    This is up from 47.80 on 8/23 (after ER) and up from 46.40 on 8/3 (before ER) and
    $12.56 above yesterday's close.

    This is the first time fair value has been estimated to be above $48.00.

    The future looks bright according to S&P!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • into_something_good into_something_good Sep 1, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    I didn't suggest that MYGN was "an investment strategy against ILMN" but was merely reporting First Trust actions. ILMN still remains F.T.'s #6 investment, and GILD remains at #12, both well above MYGN at #21, which is barely ahead of CSCO holdings at #22. What stood out for me was their strong presence in Tech. (19%) and Healthcare (15.3%), well above 3rd place Financials (11.6%).

    520K shares is not too significant over 3 months, about 1/4 of the 2M share buyback, but may bold well for the future. As of 6/30/14, F.T.'s total was 2.846M, which could easily double or triple in the months ahead. The past is history: what matters for investors is the future.

    I don't believe there was any need to shoot the messenger in this case.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • First Trust bought 519,217 shares during the 2nd q. to add 22% to their total holdings of MYGN. They have $24.5B under management, about 10 times the current market value of the company. They sold 9.2% of ILMN among others to make this investment. This makes a lot of sense, since ILMN sells the hardware to make the services of MYGN possible. Eventually the market will become saturated with the hardware, sending ILMN skidding as a consequence. Other medical sector high flyers they sold include GILD ( reduced by 25.97% of holdings) and ITMN ( reduced by 37.3% of holdings). First Trust is fairly heavy into health care at 15.32% of holdings, 2nd only to tech. at 19%.

    Note that the additions to MYGN in the 2nd q. was in the range of about 35-42.50, about double the low of 20.02 at the end of Dec/13.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Analizing the Analysts

    by into_something_good Aug 27, 2014 9:51 AM
    into_something_good into_something_good Aug 30, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    My point was the challengers didn't do their DD because they thought it wasn't necessary. They thought the 2 patents before the Supreme Court were the only patents at issue. There is a distinct difference between being reckless and being ignorant, IMHO. The challengers were ignorant, and consequently they will pay. They weren't acting (in their opinion) out of being reckless. If you believe there are no patents other than the invalidated patents you wrongly believe you are home free. This is a trivial point, so I won't mind if you think I contradicted myself. It seems to make sense that they should have gotten a 2nd opinion from a patent attorney, but they were certain they did not need a 2nd opinion. My guess, as I said in my first post on this subject, is that they were duped by the hype of the press.

    The patent claims at issue specify methods of achieving the desired results of the tests. I don't find anything subtle in these claims.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Analizing the Analysts

    by into_something_good Aug 27, 2014 9:51 AM
    into_something_good into_something_good Aug 29, 2014 2:53 PM Flag

    I don't know where I contradicted myself. On what basis do you say "most medical tests don't have good patent protection". Do you know of any cases where the patents for medical tests were found wanting?

    Perhaps the Kodak in-house patent attorneys were insane. They obviously thought they had a better than 50-50 chance of prevailing. The Polaroid settlement was hugely expensive for Kodak, and may have played a large part in their ultimate bankruptcy.

    In any case, the looming cases put Myriad with patents vs. 7 pirates with no patents. My money is on Myriad.
    It won't be as lucrative as Apple vs. Samsung or Kodak vs. Polaroid, but it will be meaningful, IMHO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Analizing the Analysts

    by into_something_good Aug 27, 2014 9:51 AM
    into_something_good into_something_good Aug 29, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    I'm not as cynical as you seem to be. I don't believe any company recklessly infringes patents unless they are very confident they would win any possible law suit. In the Kodak case, a small army of patent attorneys analyzed the Polaroid patents and concluded there was no problem. The Kodak product was very mundane, with a hand crank to deliver the exposed film packet as opposed to Polaroid's fully automated motorized version. The court ruled that Kodak infringed; I don't know if it was the camera patents or the film packet patents that caused Kodak to lose.

    The Myriad competitors failed to do any DD, IMHO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • into_something_good by into_something_good Aug 27, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    Because there was a rush by 7 firms to enter the gene testing field in competition with Myriad following the Supreme Court decision, I assume that the major analysts (RBC, BAC/ML, CS, Morningstar) wrongly deduced that these firms had done their homework with respect to all Myriad patents before announcing their entry into competition. My guess is that the 7 firms failed to do their DD because they were duped by the excessive publicity in the press. The analysts are not versed in patent law and consequently can't be faulted for not doing their own DD, and got caught up in the group think. The GeneDx case illustrates the overwhelming strength of the patent moat around Myriad. Not only is the moat filled with the alligators of the MYGN portfolio of patents, but also the alligators of the licensed patents of several other research firms, including Human Genome Sciences Inc., Oncormed, etc.

    Naturally, the logic of the short sellers was in lock step with the analysts. You almost have to sympathize with such ignorance. Unfortunately, we have to wait for the court cases to be settled before the analysts and short sellers change their tune. There will, however, be continual raising of target prices/fair value for the shares as the future profit picture becomes clear with q. by q. increases. I think it is safe to say, based on the last q., that the A. Jolie bubble has finally ceased to be a big factor although, like the echo of the Big Bang, there will continue to be a residual effect.

    JMHO, of course. Be sure to do your own DD and beware of the rants of the shorts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • into_something_good into_something_good Aug 27, 2014 8:22 AM Flag

    This was good for a laugh. Clearly the author doesn't know what he is talking about.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    USPTO should back off!! imho!

    by newtwo99 Aug 27, 2014 12:18 AM
    into_something_good into_something_good Aug 27, 2014 8:21 AM Flag

    I would not be too concerned about this. The original patent law as passed by the1st congress in 1791 clearly stated "products of nature" and "natural phenomenon" were not patentable. In the past few years, mistakes were made, which I attribute to the huge increase in Examiners in the biotech and other fields that were insufficiently trained for their jobs. They focused too much on 35 USC 102 and 103 (dealing with "prior art") rather than 35 USC 100 and 101 which more broadly define what is patentable. I expect they will get back to basics, after these discussions with the public. The Examiners lately would look at the claims of the application and if they couldn't find prior art (apparently their sole focus) they would allow the claims. Method claims are patentable; products of nature (even if flawed or defective) are not.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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