I hope that you are right. I do believe that logically there will be a settlement very soon, but the stock may have also risen a lot for the shorts last hurrah. Those shorts with any sense, just covered and will call it a day, but other shorts probably covered and will short one last time and then pressure the stock down again, unless something comes immediately down the pike in terms of a settlement or decision. They pull this stuff all of the time and meanwhile their butts are covered, because even if they short again it won't be quite as costly for them than if they were shorted at a lower level. Meanwhile these big money shorts have made a fortune by manipulating the stock up and down, so even if they short again at $5 and they can't get covered until $7, they have already made much more than they will be losing on this last round.
Traders like RIM, whom many of the longs here love to hate have also made a fortune by going long and then short on the stock. Lots of traders have made a lot of money this way, it doesn't mean they hate Avanir or think that Avanir is going to crash and burn. They just do well with market timing. It is an art. The market manipulators are really crooks, but traders are not, they are just doing their best to make a buck by dealing with the stock market in the best way they know how, just like the rest of us.
Didn't mean to get going with something so long here. I just hope that it is all over and a settlement will be announced soon.
My take on it is that both longs and shorts know that at this point a decision is imminent and obviously the longs have more confidence that the decision will go their way or mostly their way. I think the shorts realize that it would be a huge gamble not to cover at this point, because even if Avanir doesn't get a complete win it is very unlikely that things will go badly enough to crush the stock, the way the shorts are hoping. Even if it were to look pretty iffy to both parties and they decided to settle for 2020 just in case, Avanir is set up to do great. Neudexta sales have gained traction and are increasing fast, there is Optinose, a European partnership or something along that line coming up soon and many other things all positive for Avanir. The only thing that can really knock Avanir off of it's course would be a complete loss. I believe that both parties will probably actually settle at this point and that Avanir will get at least 2021 or later. It would be in both parties best interest to settle and get this thing done.
At first I thought that Ray meant a 10% hit against how much the share price would ultimately increase of it was a clear win with either no appeal or a clear win on an appeal also, because a 10% hit on the current share price is of course ridiculous considering all of the positive events coming up for Avanir in the near future (European partnership, Optinose, increase sales of Neudexta in this country, Dex Quin, and just too many different things to mention, LOL). Ray does have it in his head that SSRIs are safer and more effective than Nuedexta and no matter how much evidence is presented to the contrary the will not be shaken from that belief. I think that he is some kind of medical professional who has been using SSRIs for patients with PBA like symptoms for years and that he is one of those people who is just not open to the idea that there is something better out there. We all know people like that. He otherwise seems like a decent and intelligent person, but with his inability to consider that it is a second rate, less safe and effective drug than the SSRIs that he thinks are so wonderful for treating these symptoms it is understandable that it skews his view of things. Well, that is my humble opinion anyway.
Thanks so much places. I do check the board, particularly any postings by you and also some of the others. Unfortunately this board is filled with so much stupidity, name calling and that sort of thing by some of the other posters that important things can get lost in the shuffle.
Places can I wasn't aware that there was a 2/25 order by Judge Stark. I saw references to the judges order on the message board yesterday, but I didn't realize that it was something that was just issued, although that makes sense. Just what did that order say?
I meant to say if we were a bunch or robots with the same opinions.
Ray, don't bother getting into this silly name calling stuff. It is beneath you. Of course at one time I thought that it was beneath Winkles, also, but I have to admit that I rarely read those ignorant name calling posts no matter who writes them. I guess it is pretty hard to ignore though, when people say such nasty things, but the kind of stuff being said about you and Rim is ridiculous beyond words. I probably disagree with your point of view, as far as Avanir goes more than half of the time, but we were all a bunch of robots with the same opinions, the world would be a boring place. Have a nice night Ray and ignore the "noise".
It is not gone, but can now only be read by PRO subscribers, whereas before it was up to be read by anyone who cared to look. I suspect that most of the big money short interest people have covered by now and want Avanir to go up so that they can short it again or they have switched to a long position on Avanir. Until the decision comes out Avanir will remain quite volatile, I believe.
I have an overwhelming feeling that a decision is imminent at this point, either this week or early next week. I have a feeling that whatever the decision is exactly, it will cause the stock to rise quite a bit when it is announced, but that may just be wishful thinking. In any case I am setting things up so that if and when a positive decision is announced, I can buy some more right away. Many of us here have been with Avanir a long time and I shudder to think of the disappointment if the decision is a loss. I wish that I really had a crystal ball, LOL.
I've been kind of thinking that myself lately. It is interesting how some people claim that Avanir is a slam dunk to win and others claim Avanir is a slam dunk to loose. I suspect there is no slam dunk here.
At this point we aren't going to get any additional large investors, until a decision is known by them, that doesn't mean that when actual earnings come in or any other good catalyst that the price won't rise or that existing large investors won't add, but not today methinks. Well, let's hope the judge just makes his decision soon.
Your take here seems pretty correct. I wish that decision would come out soon. With this good earnings news and PPS rising a little the shorts are probably planning an attack article at this very moment. I am thinking some very twisted negative "news" article written by a short or someone working for them will probably come out in the next couple of days. If that decision on the patent issue would just come out it would put a stop to all of this nonsense. Either she crashes or she flies. Let's hope she flies.
What I am trying to say is that your reasoning, if you call it that, is way too simplistic, but then you are a paid basher anyway and probably don't make much money at it, so I am sure that it is not worth your time or effort to become better informed on the subject of OPK, Dr. Frost or on investing in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly start-ups.
You are too late to scare out the faint hearted and under informed investor in OPK. Those people have long since flown the coup. The other investors may leave their money with OPK or even buy more at these prices.
On the other hand even those who are faint hearted my find a better investment and move their money, but at this late date, your post is hardly a compelling reason for a person to base their investment decisions on.
I think we will really see the old OPK going up, up, up, when some of the catalysts start happening. They have 3 drugs in stage 3. When are some of those results due. It seems to me that at least one was in the first quarter of this year, but I can't remember for sure. It would be nice if either you or one of the other posters would post a reminder about this. I know that I would appreciate it.
They may dump if the judgement goes againesst Avanir, but they won't dump any shares until this court case is settled. If they were going to dump before that they would have done so already. Even if the verdict were to go against Avanir they wouldn't dump all at once and furthermore if they are still in at this point in time, they will probably hold most of their shares until any appeal has gone through the courts also. The big thing is that if Avanir wins this thing their shares will go sky high. They have so many positives going for them that the only thing besides manipulation by the shorts that is holding down the share price is this court case. The truth is no matter how good or bad people think Avanir's case is, the verdict lies with the judge. Additionally patent law and it's ramifications is no simple and straight forward thing, from what I can tell.