So you really think that Anchor market will not achieve a high penetration unless the REDUCE-IT study comes out positive? If so, do you think Marine indication alone is enough to command a high premium to the stock price?
AMRN bulls should ask VVUS how their go it alone launch has gone so far. They're in a similar battle of discounting and coupons. There's going to be a lot of myths out there to debunk that Vascepa is not just your standard fish oil.
To all the bulls that taught the LDL raising ability of Lovaza.... keep in mind that current guidelines suggest statin therapy to bring patients to LDL goals before being concerned about triglycerides. Once a patient is maximized to their LDL goal and the statin has had a chance to also lower the triglycerides, a triglyceride lowering agent can be considered. Fibrates remain a standard of care due to their effectiveness and now their costs. Tricor is one of the best selling fibrates to date and has now become available generically. Vascepa will have to compete with this and soon generic Lovaza.
In a trial of Lovaza with simvastatin, patients with high triglycerides were first treated with simvastatin and optimized to their LDL targets before initiating Lovaza. After initiation of Lovaza triglycerides were decreased by ~ 30%, Apo-B ~6% and LDL DECREASED by 0.7% or 3 points from 91 to 88. This scenario follows much of the real world. Statins are the mainstay of therapy and the trial involving simvastatin shows apo-b was reduced and LDL really wasn't moved. Most studies suggest that LDL 100 may start the build of plaques within arteries. Lovaza did not move the LDL to dangerous levels at all which is the general theme I feel AMRN bulls try to suggest.
Did the FDA change its mind about the NDA?..Did'nt the company just file for the ANCHOR 35 million patient indication..
The drop to pre ANCHOR levels is ridiculous..I simply had to buy when the PPS hit $7.52...
The prinicipal argument hoisted against AMRN is skepticism that doctors are going prescribe (actually suggest) patients take fish oil instead of putting up money for the good stuff..Included in this are weak arguments that patients can receive the same benefits from fish oil as they do from Vascepa..Weak arguments because this is simply not true. The fact the company is not featuring a full court press on the sales results in the first couple of weeks is being used as a proof the drug will be a long term failure..None of these arguments will hold water..
A problem AMRN faces, and one that is seldom stated, is that Vascepa, because it is a fish oil derivative, is not very sexy in the biotech world filled with miracle cancer cures DNDN and fancy diagnostic electronic devices like NEOP (or whatever they call it now)...Well sexy or not Vascepa will make money and plenty of it..The share price at present allows for plenty of skepticism and then some..
AMRN's valuation is not difficult if you know how many patients they will service. The drug is administered daily in known quanity and its profits are determined in the same way you would the profits of a beverage company..Figure costs of goods and services including financing, subtract these from revenues and you have profits..At the present PPS an estimate based on drug industry averages...indicates AMRN would only have to be treating 400K patients out of a total cohort of 40 million potential patients..To reach its current valuation. This would be a conversion of 1%..This is way beyond skepticism..
Vascepa simply put addresses a potential market that is so vast that the market has trouble getting around it. The pathophys is complex and well understood by very few investors..IMHO the rationale is very good and very important...but as an investment it does have to be that good, because the indication is so enormous...
How can you extrapolate weak sales for Vascepa based on sales numbers from ONE month. If you're so pessimistic about this triglyceride therapy then just move on! You seem to doubt that Vascepa has anything to offer to patients.
Glad the akanz bozo is off the Boards--maybe you could join him!