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Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

invbiotech 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 2, 2015 3:39 PM Member since: Feb 28, 2000
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  • invbiotech invbiotech Oct 2, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    This is a very important finding. Suggests that combination of Rindo + Avastin will have synergistic effect in vIII positive GBM and is consistent with the robust efficacy reported in ReACT trial, where R+A showed significant survival, PFS, RR and steroid reduction effects.

    Based on this report, CLDX should re-open channel of communication with FDA and ask them to give accelerated approval for Rindo+Avastin in recurrent/relapsed vIII GBM, as there is a clear mechanistic explanation for the superior efficacy of R+A combo in ReACT.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New Varli Trial

    by fludyspnea Sep 17, 2015 12:37 AM
    invbiotech invbiotech Sep 17, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    Keler let it slip in the last cc that they are seeing positive results with Varli but CLDX is restricted in what information they can share (is this related to collaborators and the competitive issues they contend with(?)...).

    I think it's encouraging that CLDX is increasing the number of collaborative trials with Varli, and this is consistent with the need to synergize checkpoint inhibitors which are effective in a limited percentage of patients (although when pts respond, they respond in a big way).

    IMIMO Varli is underappreciated by investors at this point but as the trial results come out the picture will become clearer and the substantial value of Varli will be evident.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Favorites into YE15e: Gilead (big cap); Medivation, BioMarin Pharmaceutical (midcap); Prothena (small cap). Gilead is currently trading near our downside scenario, and we think upside comes from beating numbers, while significant optionality can be derived from pipeline and cash deployment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • invbiotech invbiotech Sep 4, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    Not sure why you're so negative:

    - LGND has 120 partnered programs
    - LGND partners are investing $1 Billion+/ year to move LGND's drugs to market
    - earnings projected to grow 45%/yr for the next 5 years
    - MK-8931 has the potential to be the biggest blockbuster drug ever, bigger than Lipitor

    So what if Wall Street and retail investors do not yet recognize these prospects...we do... and it will pay off in spades for us!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Seekingalpha article, very positive re prospect for LGND.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by tina_astoria Aug 24, 2015 1:04 PM
    invbiotech invbiotech Aug 24, 2015 1:26 PM Flag

    Good pick-up Tina. Not only the "near-launch asset", but also "AMCP dossier". This is one of the most critical documents that a biotech provides to payers and providers regarding an FDA approved, marketed(!) drug or medical device:

    "AMCP/Global Value dossier is the single source document which communicates clinical, safety, economic and quality of life value proposition of medical products to payers and providers. Due to several recent market events, AMCP/global value dossier has evolved as a powerful tool to present cost and comparative effectiveness data for medical products."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Maybe CLDX Management has been reading YMB. LOL

    by beachpo Aug 14, 2015 8:20 AM
    invbiotech invbiotech Aug 14, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    It's only the Chairman of the Board and the CEO…what do they know?...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • invbiotech invbiotech Aug 11, 2015 9:03 AM Flag

    Completely agree with this- it is clearly stated in the PR that CLDX is working with CBER and progress has been made on CMC and CDR, but not completed (and CLDX cannot submit an application until these are completed): "Under the RINTEGA program's recently awarded Breakthrough Therapy Designation, the Company is actively engaged with the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) to complete all of the required activities associated with the ability to apply for licensure and considerable progress is being made, particularly in the areas of chemistry manufacturing and controls (CMC) and companion diagnostics readiness."

    I think an associated aspect is resource allocation in terms of which processes to push aggressively. Rintega in the recurrent setting will be a relatively minor revenue generator for CLDX. It is twice mentioned in the cc that CLDX is seeing very promising results with the Varli+Nivo combo, and Varli has the potential to be one of the biggest revenue generating drugs ever. So they are not diverting resources (ie personnel and funds) to push RIntega in a minor indication and slow down Varli. A second reason may be that CLDX's internal statistical modeling based on event rate is showing a high probability of success in ACTIV and an approval in newly diagnosed GBM cancels out recurrent GBM. So again it comes back to resource allocation and where they can get more bang for the buck.

    CLDX will get a haircut this morning, but I think those who sell at this point will regret it...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Repost about Vari

    by raysfrom98 Jul 22, 2015 2:11 PM
    invbiotech invbiotech Jul 23, 2015 2:42 PM Flag


    I'm actually being very conservative. Take a look at ALXN, estimated revenue for '15 is $2.7B, market cap is $46B. I'm using ALXN because it has a targeted drug, no competition and it is marketing on its own- very similar to the position that CLDX has with Varli (CLDX owns the IP on cd27/70, no competition, and CLDX is building out its own marketing force- for Rintega and Glemba now, and for Varli in the future). The fact that investors don't see right now where CLDX is heading doesn't mean that CLDX will stay forever at current valuation. After all, not that long ago CLDX was under $5 a share, now it is 5x over that, and in a couple of years it will be 5x current pps. Successful biotechs like CLDX increase in valuation with time- exponentially at certain critical phases like the upcoming Rintega approval- and that needs to be taken into account when investing in CLDX.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • invbiotech invbiotech Jul 22, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    Revenue estimates for Varli range from $5 to $8 Billion/yr, multiplied by 8 gives the conservative side of $40 Billion market cap valuation. Varli already has 3 partners, 8 indications in trials:

    "Varlilumab, also known as CD-1127, is an antibody that has proven to stimulate the immune system in multiple ways by targeting the antigen CD27. Varlilumab then works as an agonist to shut down certain proteins that prevent effective cancer treatment while also allowing a therapeutic drug to reach its intended area of treatment. Given the pathway that Varlilumab creates, there is widespread belief that it can be combined with other effective drugs to improve a patient's survival outlook. Lastly, CD27 is found on most, if not many different types of cancer.

    Therein lies the market potential for Varlilumab; it can be used in conjunction with other drugs to treat many diseases. Analysts have estimated that peak revenue for Varlilumab could range from $5 to $8 billion, far more than anything else in Celldex's pipeline. The reason that Celldex's valuation does not accurately reflect the market potential of Varlilumab is because it still has ways to go before being FDA approved; Celldex hasn't even found a maximum tolerated dose for the drug yet.

    Despite this fact, Celldex has partnered with Bristol-Myers (NYSE:BMY), Oncothyreon (NASDAQ:ONTY) and Roche for investigational studies, and has produced quite meaningful data itself in early studies. In November 2013, Varlilumab led to significant tumor shrinkage in three out of eight patients, while all achieved a stable disease with minimum side effects. Most recently, Celldex announced ongoing biologic activity and promising signs of clinical activity in advanced, treatment-refractory patient populations at ASCO last year. Currently, Celldex is testing Varlilumab on blood cancers and solid tumors, but with its partnerships over the last year, Varlilumab is certain to find itself in several large studies in the coming year."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • invbiotech invbiotech Jul 21, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    mbb, read below, this collaboration with BMY will add $40 Billion in market cap to CLDX in a couple of years as the VArli results roll out.

    Bristol-Myers Squibb and Celldex Therapeutics Announce Clinical Trial Collaboration to Evaluate the Combination of Investigational Immunotherapies Nivolumab and Varlilumab

    Wednesday, May 14, 2014 8:00 am EDT

    NEW YORK & HAMPTON, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY) and Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLDX) announced today that they have entered into a clinical trial collaboration to evaluate the safety, tolerability and preliminary efficacy of nivolumab, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s investigational PD-1 immune checkpoint inhibitor, and varlilumab, Celldex’s CD27 targeting investigational antibody in a Phase 1/2 study. Multiple tumor types will be explored in the study, which could potentially include non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), metastatic melanoma, ovarian, colorectal (CRC) and squamous cell head and neck cancers.

    Nivolumab and varlilumab are part of a new class of cancer treatments known as immunotherapies that are designed to harness the body’s own immune system to fight cancer through separate yet complementary mechanisms of action that result in T-cell mediated destruction of cancer cells. Preclinical data suggest the combination of these two mechanisms may enhance anti-tumor immune response compared to either agent alone.

    “As leaders in immuno-oncology, Bristol-Myers Squibb is advancing the science of how immunotherapy can harness the body’s immune system to fight multiple types of cancers,” said Michael Giordano, senior vice president, Oncology and Immunosciences Development."The clinical collaboration with Celldex and the opportunity to explore the potential benefits of combination treatment with nivolumab and varlilumab adds to our robust clinical development program focused on delivering the promise of long-term survival benefits to a broader patient population.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Bristol-Meyers Squibb Co. stopped a clinical trial of its drug Opdivo six months early after the therapy kept kidney-cancer patients alive longer compared with those taking a standard treatment.
    In the late-stage study of 821 patients who had been previously treated for advanced renal cell carcinoma, Opdivo met the primary goal of improved survival, Bristol-Myers said Monday in a statement. The trial compared Opdivo with Novartis AG’s Afinitor, which had $1.58 billion in sales last year.
    The results mark the first time an immuno-oncology drug, which harnesses the immune system, has shown the ability to help patients live longer, Bristol-Myers said.
    Bristol-Myers has turned to cancer drugs for growth, with sales of Opdivo projected to reach $6.2 billion by 2020, or more than one-quarter of total revenue, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In February, the New York-based drugmaker agreed to buy Flexus Biosciences Inc. and Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc. in deals valued at $1.6 billion to boost its oncology pipeline.
    Renal cell carcinoma, the most common form of kidney cancer, kills more than 100,000 a year, Bristol-Myers said. There aren’t many options to treat those patients, and the five-year survival rate for people with advanced kidney cancer is 12 percent, the company said.
    Bristol-Meyers shares rose 1 percent to $70 at 9:40 a.m. in New York. Shares are up 42 percent over the last 12 months. The New York City-based company reports second-quarter earnings Thursday.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • One such company that might be well-positioned for future earnings growth is Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (LGND). This firm, which is in the biotechnology space, saw EPS growth of 57.1% last year, and is looking great for this year too.

    In fact, the current growth estimate for this year calls for earnings-per-share growth of over 100%. Furthermore, the long-term growth rate is currently an impressive 30%, suggesting pretty good prospects for the long haul.

    And if this wasn’t enough, the stock has actually seen estimates rise over the past month for the current fiscal year by about 18%. Thanks to this rise in earnings estimates, LGND has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) which further underscores the potential for outperformance in this company.

    So if you are looking for a fast growing stock that is still seeing plenty of opportunities on the horizon, make sure to consider LGND. Not only does it have double digit earnings growth prospect, but its impressive Zacks Rank suggests that analysts believe better days are ahead for LGND as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Shares of Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLDX) appreciated by 2.22% during the past week but lost 1.78% on a 4-week basis. The shares have outperformed the S&P 500 by 2.23% in the past week but underperformed the index by 0.95% in the last 4 weeks.

    For this week, the average consensus of the company shares are rated as a Strong Buy. Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. has dropped 12.85% during the last 3-month period . Year-to-Date the stock performance stands at 36.38%. The company shares have rallied 72.85% in the past 52 Weeks. On March 19, 2015 The shares registered one year high of $32.82 and one year low was seen on July 17, 2014 at $11.93. The 50-day moving average is $25.99 and the 200 day moving average is recorded at $24.85. S&P 500 has rallied 5.03% during the last 52-weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Forbes Article

    by yingand_yang Jul 8, 2015 5:15 PM
    invbiotech invbiotech Jul 9, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    LGND pps $110 by the time the Forbes article in print!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

89.45+4.99(+5.91%)Oct 2 4:00 PMEDT