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Universal Display Corp. Message Board

investmenttankerblogspot 137 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2015 11:40 AM Member since: Sep 5, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Poor price action based on its beta

    by secureconnection Aug 26, 2015 5:26 PM
    investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 27, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    Oled's story is about Alpha not beta. A sophisticated investor seeks alpha not beta.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    IGNORE whatposdis and serfbum1

    by qtmmnutcase Aug 18, 2015 1:05 PM
    investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 19, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    correction to earlier post... interactive broker shares avail to borrow proxy apparently updates around 11 am... and typically after market close it reverts back to some number of shares avail to borrow lower (lately its been sticking at 1.4m) ...today at ~11am the shares avail to borrow shows 5.3m (down from 5.6m) so essentially only 300 thousand shares have been borrowed to short (apparently into a rather thin market). Not a bunch really but I it is helpful to know that some if not much of the selling may be coming from borrowed shares rather than longs reducing holdings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    IGNORE whatposdis and serfbum1

    by qtmmnutcase Aug 18, 2015 1:05 PM
    investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 19, 2015 12:33 AM Flag

    I would also point out that a moderated forum with just as much valuable information and more exists if you google it. Sort of like Silicon valley but for investors...hint hint. Since its moderated they do well to police out the miscreants and riff raff.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    IGNORE whatposdis and serfbum1

    by qtmmnutcase Aug 18, 2015 1:05 PM
    investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 18, 2015 7:48 PM Flag

    I've seen the return of one particular poster who reminds me too much of a specific miscreant (their anti-posts overlap with known targets (MVIS, OLED, NFLX) of the miscreants and their choice of poster name overlaps with the false premise of the short and distort gang's use of so called investigative journalism. This may well mean the return of the borrow, short, and distort camp. I will have to review the interactive broker proxy tomorrow during the market for shares available to borrow. That said this particular move in front of LG's surge in oled capex technology diffusion feels more like a last hurrah to try to exit the last few million shares short as best they can. Not sure they will dip in to borrow more but rather make as much noise as they can to cover the remaining short positions. Imagine a basketball game where you are making the free throw and the other team makes all the noise to try to throw you off your game. LG is running the oled show now and UDC has essentially taken the host loss off the table of future reports. This is essentially the last "at pitch" inning for the shorts so I suppose we'll expect them to throw everything and the kitchen sink at us.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LG OLED Expansion by 2018= 8.5 billion dollars

    by qtmmnutcase Aug 17, 2015 6:53 AM
    investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 17, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    would any of the oled capex gurus care to comment on their paju plant status? on track? ahead?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Expecting a Dorsheimer hit piece

    by fusionary1 Aug 11, 2015 8:21 PM
    investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 12, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    well the IB proxy data rebounded to 5.5... so I don't know what the temporary visit to 1.4m was all about ...data fluke maybe. anyway we don't really have borrowing data to support a diabolical star alignment again. (yet anyway). That said he may still be trying to work off some remaining short positions for clients. Now would be a good time to close up the short shop completely. Looking to see further reduction in net shorting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 12, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    technically they admitted their own problems...their internal politics of old guard lcd managers prevented the rise of oled so they began to address this by re-arranging their firm. Inflexibility to cannibalizing one product to a newer product has often spilled doom for firms keeping the spot of king of the hill.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 12, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    If LG can ramp the diffusion from led to oled fast enough they can catch SMD unprepared and take market share. Its baffling to see SMD lose oled leadership...I think they got hoodwinked by the paint lipstick on pig marketers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 11, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    is this the same as " Organic Vapor Jet Printing Using Micronozzle Arrays" that we saw published from Mich. in 2013?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 10, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    Note 4 is underrated IMHO. Love the note (and its sd card slot and stylus). Maybe when NOTE 5 comes out things will change a bit.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Host:Emitter =10-20:1

    by tj612806 Aug 10, 2015 4:17 AM
    investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 10, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    Considering that Cheil sells host for under cost... I'd say getting out of the host business at 10-20:1 is a pretty darn good strategy. Imagine losing money on every 20 ounces of host for every ounce of emitter. STUPID. Mgmt did well to pull the plug. We only wish they had written it off sooner than later. To the extent that SMD sells host at below cost to other oem's (should they do so in the future) they ought to be brought up on WTO anti-dumping charges and pay significant penalties to UDC in court. Well I know selling final goods at below cost is a violation, I'm not sure if selling materials that go into the final product at below cost is... and I think you can get away with it if you dump in your own country (as long as your own countries anti-trust laws permit it).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Guidance remains the same...

    by eclipse20251 Aug 10, 2015 10:42 AM
    investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 10, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    it was already called at 40 AH on the eve of the write off report ...and that call still stands as far as I can tell. Darn good call so far. IMHO, the overall oled news is just too darn good to ignore. Focusing on the past is like driving by looking through a rear view mirror.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 10, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    well said, along with other posters pointing out that SMD paid 350 million for the Novaled host business well above what they've paid UDC to date for host. I have to say though that at the time SMD may have anticipated a huge uptick in oled production with oled tv expansions and that they may have thought they were going to pay UDC a LOT more for host material going forward as it turns out UDC also thought they should be anticipating huge green host sales for SMD's host expansion and both ended up overpaying for the host business. A typical "Winner's curse" in the auction world for SMD. So while UDC may have botched the green host supply chain management at least in the late post 5 ton rumor timeframe, SMD botched the entire shift to large displays (in the short run) by not taking the same filtered approach (WOLED) that LG did. SMD has ceded the leadership in large displays to LG by quite some margin now and may well end up seeing LG run away with the OLED leadership for years...and now that 350 million for the host business looks like much too much too soon anyway. To make matters even more strange is that SMD under-charges internal one division for the oled host (essentially under cost) shifting the losses to the host division to make the profit per phone look better... perhaps I'm wrong on the last point but I seem to recall some strange statements in conference calls about how the competitive host was being sold below cost and that UDC can't compete with that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LG revenue

    by maymiami2004 Aug 6, 2015 4:35 PM
    investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 9, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    if nobody could make an effective host, should UDC have just given that formula away? Seems most likely the error was later in their product history where they didn't think to require futures contracts to reduce risk.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 7, 2015 6:09 PM Flag

    Nov will bring us another year out.... keep that in mind.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Must be LG that stopped buying Green Host

    by tj612806 Aug 7, 2015 4:00 PM
    investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 7, 2015 4:32 PM Flag

    Did LG ever buy any green host?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Motley Fool Article

    by gainesix Aug 7, 2015 2:23 PM
    investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 7, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    We've appreciated Steve's coverage for years now. I just hope oled reaches the viral marketing stage at Fool someday soon. You know the one they create a teaser video about and tempt you to subscribe to find out the symbol.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ugh, I Just have to rant on multiple topics

    by madamemimsy Aug 7, 2015 12:41 PM
    investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 7, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    are you sure the pricing pressure wasn't just volume based pricing discounts built into the long term contract? Volume breaks that were not visible to investors until they kicked in...
    We're subject to the swings until the oled tv ramp hits the stock screen with consistently large numbers year after year... my assumption is that after LG doubles oled tv production for a number of years that they will have hit their highest volume discount and that the relationship between capacity growth/output and oled revenues becomes more stable. The tic/toc of capacity growth and volume discounts increases the uncertainty while LG is moving up through the volume discounts. Once we get past those it should be much clearer sailing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ugh, I Just have to rant on multiple topics

    by madamemimsy Aug 7, 2015 12:41 PM
    investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 7, 2015 2:10 PM Flag

    2) they have a contract until 2017 so no monkey business with forcing SMD to do anything.
    1) be careful on the requiring something that UDC doesn't have a monopoly on with something they do... UDC could trigger the wrath of anti-trust regulators if they require a pairing of host purchasing with emitter. I'm not even sure it would matter if UDC could demonstrate that their host was better than others hosts and had to be paired. Think something along the lines of MSFT being sued for forcing IE into the windows OS and blocking Netscape (my memory may not serve accurately on this example anymore). UDC has a monopoly on emitters and many of their actions could overstep anti-trust regs so they have well paid lawyers to help them navigate those waters. Whereas you and I would stick it to SMD, the lawyers may well inform them that they can't or they trigger various anti-trust clauses or WTO regulations. Monopoly regulations are typically more restrictive on business practices than on those businesses don't hold monopoly power.
    One answer may have been don't produce the host ahead of contracts but what if they were thinking if we don't have the host ready we won't be able to sell the emitters and we've promised to be able to deliver both within X timeframe of an order. It sounds like the host business was a lot like farming you have to plant the seeds well before you know what the price of the harvest output will be. Apparently they didn't require a futures contract with SMD for the host material they were producing. So not having a just in time inventory model or a futures contract to reduce the risk of the host business was the Achilles heel. While they may have hired a great lawyer... they may have missed on hiring a financial engineer that could required a futures contract deal for the host sales for them to start building an inventory of host materials. I would hope they would think about their financial technique that led to this write off a lot more in the future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • investmenttankerblogspot investmenttankerblogspot Aug 7, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    and need I point out that the vast majority of the oled tv product reviews are extremely positive. Once oled mass production hits 80% yield on 4k oled tv there is pent up demand for oled tv that will explode at the right price points. This begins late 2015 and goes into full swing 2016 and beyond. Best everyone just go into their hyper sleep chambers for a few quarters and wake up to the bloom of LG oled tv at Best Buy at attractive sales prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

OLED
37.53-0.32(-0.85%)Aug 28 4:00 PMEDT