cgc: "it also appears, based on reporting in the Chinese press, that M3 reservations are being taken in China based on the representation that Tesla will have no tariff added to the price "
The conversion rate in China is going to be minuscule. I wonder what percent of the "approaching 400K" reservations are from China. Cut those by 95% and you have a starting point to estimate a credible reservation total. Take that total and cut it by X% for attrition and then cut that total by y% for ever $2,500 over $35K that the car actually ends up costing on average.
rusty "we need to know the validity of the model 3 deposits."
cgc: "hte question of the legitimacy of the M3 deposits needs to be more fully addressed. Moreover, it was reported today that an executive of Tesla's China operation said that the second largest % of M3 reservations were booked in China
I would not at all be "
Because this is TSLA and accounting and operational errors are common, I am willing to be there was "an inadvertent error " which caused Tesla deposits in China to require 1,000 renminbi. That would be about $154 USD.
jmcv: "I don't think Tesla can play the Chinese government like they can the US fed and states"
Obama was looking right at Elon Musk when he said "you didn't build that"
In that narrow context, the comment makes sense.
perhaps the elected assembly members of the CO state government could be of help too in crafting an incentive package for buyers of EVs
donro: "Tesla is negotiating with three cities "
I can certainly see TSLA attempt that in china. But do you think the Chinese state officials would be as excited as US officials were to tout cleantech manufacturing jobs? Especially since TSLA is US based and china has some national champions to nurture?
Regardless, the 'need plant in china' is an awesome pretext to raise capital in the US.
For three years and counting, investor enthusiasm for Tesla Motors Inc. has repeatedly overshadowed, well, everything. Profits? Mostly irrelevant. Dwindling cash levels? No problem. Production issues? They won’t happen again, of course.
Tesla’s stock has surged more than 500% since 2013 behind a visionary, albeit unconventional, leader in Elon Musk and a cultlike investor following. But on this supposed long-term road to success, Tesla bulls face a harsh short-term reality.
td: "didn't they significantly increase their holdings in Q3 and Q4?"
2015 Bailey Gifford Share Holdings
Interestingly, while we won't know Q1 holdings for most investors until 45 days following the quarter, a few file early. Bank of Montreal added 4.5M or about shares in Q1 (with offsetting puts on about 240,000 shares). Four funds (state street, Norges bank, Oppenheimer Funds and Frankling Resources) )report selling their entire stake in q1 -- 2.8M shares total across all four.
coach: "There is no reason whatsoever to have the CEO of a company stand at the end of a production line to assure quality."
jmcv: "Show the video of hours of tech inspections. Otherwise, what he says and what is actually being done may not match up."
Put the two together and what do you have? Elon grooming the market for below expectation deliveries for Q2
jmcv: I am beginning to think you are a real trouble maker. First you looked at the volumes in the Panasonic contract, then you showed that the economics of the Hawaii co-op SCTY deal were poor and now you're exposing a patently ridiculous price increase on a product on which we have received few disclosures since the last hype-pump cycle.
td: "wonder how it's possible that we have better questions than these analysts."
I believe it's because the analysts are getting paid (in some cases very well) not to ask tough questions. They are getting paid to position the stock as a growth story so that the analyst's employer can participate in lucrative transactions by the issuer.
on the last call, there were some journalists (as opposed to solely analysts) who seemed like they were dipping their toes into the shallow end of skepticism. Perhaps they will return and go a bit deeper.
I do know you have several journalists following you on SA, so hopefully the piece will get them thinking about the issues you raise
bd: "since he has 30 to 60 days before they get charged to his credit card"
to clarify: a customer placing a deposit (or 20 deposits) would see the charges on their statement immediately. TSLA would get the money within a day or two.
The customer would not have to actually come up with the money until their next credit card payment due date. So if a customer requested from Tesla and received promptly a refund before that month's statement closed, then the next bill would reflect both the deposit and the refund, and no balance would be due