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Christopher & Banks Corporation Message Board

investor_cpa 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 3, 2014 7:46 AM Member since: Feb 1, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Be Careful

    by p_ruscitti Mar 28, 2014 10:23 AM
    investor_cpa investor_cpa Apr 3, 2014 7:46 AM Flag

    When evaluating a business, you have to understand valuation in the context of future growth potential. Let me paint you a picture that is not going to predict what the stock valuation will be 1 month, 6 months, or even a year from now. What I do know, is that 5 years from now this stock will be higher. William Marth is a HUGE asset to this company. Check out his history at TEVA...he has proven track record of growth. He is a veteran in the generic pharmaceutical industry and he brings that to AMRI which has very little business in this segment. His 5 year growth plan is to achieve $1.3 BILLION in sales at a higher profit margin than current margins....we are now only $265 million in revenue. If we were to price the stock conservatively at 2X sales, that would $2.6 Billion in market cap. My money says he can deliver (Check out his stock purchases too - he is aligning his interest with investors - always a good thing). A $2.6 Billion market cap would mean a 4 - 5 bagger in 5 years (or $83 per share!) Wait and see...While I agree the stock has had a huge run in the past 6 months and could correct short-term, you don't want to miss out long-term on this one. I have a significant position in this stock and my original purchases were at $3. Buy, hold, and forget for 5 years....I am confident you won't be disappointed.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyout

    by investor_cpa Nov 21, 2013 7:06 AM
    investor_cpa investor_cpa Mar 25, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    We are now another 4 months out since my original posting. It does not take this long to sign a deal. Warren Buffet gets a deal done with a handshake and this has been going on for months.

    I have a lot of respect for Greg Tunney, but the Company is hiding something. I have done work in due diligence situtations and it should not take more than a few days to conduct that. If each party has hired an advisor, I would say give them a month to do a thorough study and make a decision. My guess is the deal is going to fall through because it should have been closed months ago and they are stalling. I wonder if they are trying to do a merger with another company or something more complicated.....exploring some add'l options.

    On the up side, the company's financial performance is improving....so it is possible the stock may not correct as much I thought it would a few months ago. Without an offer on the table, I would peg fair value some where around $15 - $16 per share. I would consider establishing a position again if it dropped to this level.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Un impressed results.

    by moneyartistpro Feb 20, 2014 10:13 PM
    investor_cpa investor_cpa Feb 21, 2014 5:48 PM Flag

    Yes, I agree this is not an exciting stock, but I believe the smart money is buying now and I am confident this Company is in the midst of a significant turnaround and has the right management for the job. It is one of my largest holdings. The Street just upgraded to a Buy yesterday on the improvement in same store sales - This is significant.improvement. Look at the balance sheet and how they have improved in last 10 years. They had over $538 million in debt in 2003 and today they are down to $173 million, plus bought back a significant amount of stock. In addition, the Company has bought back over 10% of the outstanding shares of stock since 2009 - over 14 million shares at a average cost of $5.21 - $70+ million! This has created value for the shareholders. I am quite confident that you will be able to say 5 years from now (Wait and see they will be paying a dividend by then because of the significant cash flow) you will be glad for buying at this bargain price. I recently ate at one of their franchised restaurants and the service and food were outstanding. Menu and service have definitely improved. I didn't take management's word for it....but witnessed it myself. The proof is in the numbers. This is a bargain at today's prices and eventually Wall Street will catch on....my numbers tell me this stock is headed north. It is only a matter of time. Be there.

    Investor_CPA

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I am not at all impressed with management for this business. Last quarter they talked about chassis procurement being the reason for poor performance and that it would be deferred to this quarter. Yes, sales came through for the 4th quarter, but profits are far from a blow-out and were about 1/2 of what they should have been.

    Yes, paying down the debt and increase in backlog has been positive and gross margin improvements are encouraging, but what about earnings? Appears they are taking out bonuses for poor performance. The way things keep going there will be other one-time adjustments we don't know about like divestment charges, severance, incentives to enrich management, etc. I am sick and tired of all the excuses. What bothers me most is they aren't willing to answer the tough questions on the conference call. I don't trust management. I am unloading all of my shares and taking the profit I was able to realize. Good luck long....I may be wrong, but I think the stock is overvalued at current levels.

    Investor CPA

  • Reply to

    Letter from the Chairman - Thoughts?

    by valueforgoodtk Dec 16, 2013 9:22 PM
    investor_cpa investor_cpa Dec 20, 2013 2:44 PM Flag

    It is pretty evident to me that Nick Caporella (who is age 77 and just happens to be the majority owner) is trying to sell the company. I doubt he is going to work forever...likely looking forward to finally retiring. I expect a sale of the Company in the next 12 months or sooner in the mid 20's, perhaps a little higher. He is trolling for buyers among Coke, Pepsi, Dr. Pepper, and perhaps others. Wait and see...maybe he'll give us a Christmas gift yet...My hope is that the sale occurs after end of Feb 2014 as I need long-term capital gain treatment. I am a relatively new shareholder on this train. The ride has been great so far.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyout

    by investor_cpa Nov 21, 2013 7:06 AM
    investor_cpa investor_cpa Dec 13, 2013 6:34 PM Flag

    I held my position for 5 years and had added to it about 2 years ago. Greg Tunney is an excellent CEO, but I can tell you a decision to say "yes" or "no" should not take 3 months to determine if in shareholders' best interest and still no sign of any decision being made. They refused to discuss on conference call. I wonder if there is an acquisition in the works. There is much more here than meets the eye...that I am sure of. It will get interesting once the fireworks get started. I suspect they will turn down the offer which is the reason I sold. Stock will drop to $16 or less if that happens as business is clearly weakening. The only thing keeping the stock where it is...is the offer on the table.

  • investor_cpa by investor_cpa Nov 21, 2013 7:06 AM Flag

    Any thoughts when we will hear the Board's decision on the $20 buyout offer? I am thinking management will reject it. Buyout at $20 appears to be fair, though, especially given last quarter's weak results (and it appears next quarter will be the same thing). Just don't understand why they haven't announced their decision yet....How long does it take to evaluate the offer? It's been on the table for quite some time. I sold my entire position in anticipation of a rejected offer as upside is limited...I view downside with certainly much more risk.

    If the Board rejects the offer, expect the stock to lcorrect 20% or more. Business is weakening....I think Greg Tunney is a great CEO, but am disappointed they still have not closed a new acquisition since Baggalini. If offer is rejected and stock drops significantly, I may reestablish a position.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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