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Winnebago Industries, Inc. Message Board

investordilemma 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 22, 2014 1:36 PM Member since: Apr 18, 2007
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  • investordilemma investordilemma Aug 22, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    Certainly pricing in a lot of growth. Really well run business but I agree the valuation is nose bleed territory. LOCO is a down right bargain in comparison. Food is decent at loco too but it doesn't have the assembly line efficiency that I have experienced at cmg. Given the choice between the two, I would pick loco for the food. loco also has more upside.

  • Reply to

    "extended administrative review"

    by investordilemma Jul 2, 2014 1:09 PM
    investordilemma investordilemma Aug 6, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    Lots of questions regarding this topic during the Q&A and CEO seems to have a difficult time answering the questions. I think this remains the single biggest elephant in the room. We won't know that the issue is going away until there is a significant sales increase for more than one quarter. IMO longs will have to be patient for much longer than they hope. I continue to hold 200 shares but I will not buy any more until they show they can sell the systems at a pace greater than 10/q. With the way the markets are acting, I won't be surprised if this goes back to the IPO price before the correction is over.

  • Reply to

    should be good for next Q based on ISRG results

    by namam75 Jul 23, 2014 9:24 AM
    investordilemma investordilemma Jul 28, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    What happens at ISRG cannot be used to model MZOR. Installed based and applications are completely different. The only thing in common is that the hospital CFO has control over the limited capital budget. If money is spent on Da Vinci, then there is less for other fancy stuff. Yikes, this thing may head below 12 the way it is acting before earnings conference.

  • Reply to

    The Sun Always Shines After a Storm

    by roberug2003 Jul 2, 2014 1:17 PM
    investordilemma investordilemma Jul 7, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    It only took a few days to get to my "low 15's" which is a more rapid rate of descent than I would have guessed. So now I am not sure where this will bottom. We are now lower than the lows seen last November and assuming this takes a month or so to stabilize, then we will see prices near 13. I doubt we revisit the record lows below 12 unless the market crashes.

  • Reply to

    The Sun Always Shines After a Storm

    by roberug2003 Jul 2, 2014 1:17 PM
    investordilemma investordilemma Jul 7, 2014 1:42 AM Flag

    I didn't just plug 10 systems sales per quarter out of the air. That is what Intuitive had to do for a year before their valuation took off ten years ago. The utilization on average is 100 procedures per year annualized. That is twice a week. If it is being used for simpler procedures, the average would be twice if not higher utilization. There is lot of work for the company to do. As I posted before, pay attention to sales and utilization trends as the most accurate indicator of whether the system is successful.

  • Reply to

    The Sun Always Shines After a Storm

    by roberug2003 Jul 2, 2014 1:17 PM
    investordilemma investordilemma Jul 3, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    What's your definition of success? The score card I look at is sales and utilization. Like somebody else posted, this company and system has been around a while and there are sill very few systems out there. I would get excited if sales hit 10 per quarter and growing. This is no where close to that.

  • Reply to

    WideMoat article at SA

    by f4uf4u Jun 27, 2014 1:58 PM
    investordilemma investordilemma Jul 3, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    I think that is a reasonable strategy in liquid stocks. This one is not. Looking at the March breakdown from the 20's to the teens, it took 50 days to find a bottom and volume spike if you can call it that wasn't an indicator. The volume is thin here and spikes in the past haven't given any clues on direction. The Moat here is mainly FDA 510k. IP barrier is thin. The IP moat here is no where as deep as that at ISRG. Being first to market is important and will build a moat. However, at 4 systems per quarter, that moat building is non-existent.

  • Reply to

    The Sun Always Shines After a Storm

    by roberug2003 Jul 2, 2014 1:17 PM
    investordilemma investordilemma Jul 2, 2014 2:42 PM Flag

    You can say the same thing for buying in that there is no reason to buy given the sales results. This will at least go down to the low 15's if not lower. It is hard to tell whether this product will ever succeed.

  • investordilemma by investordilemma Jul 2, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    That must be the fashionable excuse for unimpressive sales for ALL capital equipment purchases. Overall hospital budgets is estimated to go down 15-20% over next few years from the cost squeezing effect of ACA. "Extended administrative reviews" will be here for a while and I hope the next excuse would be more creative. Something like our sales force decided to take an extended sabbatical I am only long a few shares so I am glad my patience won't be too extended.

  • Reply to

    Institutions always win

    by y0da7119 Jun 19, 2014 12:32 PM
    investordilemma investordilemma Jun 23, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    July open interest represents only 130,000 shares or so. I doubt there is enough volume for institutional trading. It is just not liquid enough. It is probably just retail hedging with calls and puts. I sell covered calls too. I don't expect much excitement until MLC is out and beta test finished with good feedback. Even then long sales cycle means 2015 before we see higher growth if everything works as advertised.

  • Reporter liked the machine but did complain about having to replace the clogged extruder a couple of times and the company had to sent replacement extruders each time.

    Who knows why this is going up or down? All I know is that company will have eps run rate of around $3 by year end. I was willing to pay $90 for organic growth of 30% for the next few years. Low barrier to entry makes me cautious. I sold covered calls today.

  • Reply to

    YELP customer reviews

    by investordilemma Jun 13, 2014 2:14 PM
    investordilemma investordilemma Jun 16, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    Howard Stern would do much better on his own rather than tying his brand to a sinking ship. He could start a bidding war with outlets such as Swell radio and Pandora.

  • investordilemma by investordilemma Jun 13, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    Very critical comments for the most part about high cost and having a hard time canceling automatic payments. Close to 1 star on average. How is this going to have a chance against iTunes, Spotify and Pandora? Howard Stern talk show?

  • Reply to

    MLC shipment

    by greggjohn Jun 10, 2014 2:03 PM
    investordilemma investordilemma Jun 13, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    In the GS discussion, CEO said it will be sort of a beta test installation to make sure everything works. He did not give the timing on the length of the beta test period before they go full throttle on the MLC. I think the MLC will really help with market penetration.

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