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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

investormdpart2 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 8, 2015 7:17 PM Member since: Mar 11, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Additional coverage initiation

    by beverlyhistory1 Aug 7, 2015 12:29 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Aug 8, 2015 7:17 PM Flag

    The CLDN cardiovascular target was not as far downstream so we will have to see if that makes a difference. The proof will be in the data. Opthalmic conditions are so complex with gene therapy and I also don't expect to see good data from Spark in their lead ophthalmic program. Clearly there is still large pharma interest in the AAV space since Biogen just did a deal with AGTC that was a bit similar to the UniQure deal.

    The best company with the most advanced vector optimization n the AAV space. Let's see how the hemophilia data looks. That will determine the direction of UniQure's stock for a long time to come.

    I don't really directly compare BLUE and QURE scientifically as they are very different types of gene therapy, but if QURE looks good in hemophilia it's going to move much higher. BLUE is a comp for valuation comparisons.

  • Reply to

    Additional coverage initiation

    by beverlyhistory1 Aug 7, 2015 12:29 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Aug 7, 2015 8:48 PM Flag

    BMS still has to buy another 5% in QURE before the end of the year at a 10% premium to market. I hope they wait until we go back up. However, there is also always the possibility that BMS will try to take QURE out. The price is so low right now. The structure of the deal with BMS opened the door to BMS eventually owning a fairly huge piece of QURE. They could zoom in and make an offer now. The price is so low that $40 may get it done. My issue with this is that the stock is worth so much more later. QURE definitely has BLUE type potential.

  • investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Aug 7, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    The only point I can make is that FBIOX has a larger holding in groups like ACAD than IBB and ACAD is getting killed.

    To me FBIOX looks like a good value. Groups like GILD and CELG released incredible earnings and they drive this sector. The more speculative names are selling off hard. Groups like BLUE and ACAD are fairly significant in the FBIOX portfolio and I think this is why FBIOX is getting hit harder than IBB.

  • Reply to

    Going to lose 4% today maybe a little more

    by ralphemerson387 Aug 6, 2015 3:43 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Aug 7, 2015 11:39 AM Flag

    Having said this, FBIOX is exposed to some high flyers like Acadia that are still speculative since nothing is approved. That's one of the reasons we're being hit harder than IBB. I played FBIOX specifically because I did want exposure to groups like Acadia without taking the risk of actually owning them so I have to man up and digest this hit. I believe in the big biotechs. The smaller groups clearly still have a lot to prove.

  • Reply to

    Going to lose 4% today maybe a little more

    by ralphemerson387 Aug 6, 2015 3:43 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Aug 6, 2015 5:58 PM Flag

    Yes, close enough to have a similar day but there are some key differences. I like the exposure that FBIOX has to some of the smaller emerging companies. Both have it but FBIOX is heavier in some of the names I like.

  • Reply to

    Going to lose 4% today maybe a little more

    by ralphemerson387 Aug 6, 2015 3:43 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Aug 6, 2015 4:02 PM Flag

    I took this opportunity to enter today. Biotech isn't in a bubble when groups like Gilead post such strong earnings. Also, some companies will drop 90% but you're unlikely to find those companies highly represented in the FBIOX portfolio.

  • Reply to

    CTIC longs

    by investormdpart2 Aug 5, 2015 5:14 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Aug 6, 2015 1:56 PM Flag

    I have to say that this is my thinking as well. We shall see.

  • Reply to

    CTIC longs

    by investormdpart2 Aug 5, 2015 5:14 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Aug 6, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    I personally like Baxalta as pacritinib is core to their strategy. I can see many ways for the CTI shareholders to win. I don't see many ways to lose with Shire at the table.

    Scenarios:
    1. Baxalta isn't bought and continues to push pacritinib ahead - definitely good for CTIC shareholders.

    2. Baxalta is bought and Shire becomes our partner - this is also probably good for CTIC shareholders. Either Shire advances the program (which would be similar to Baxalta advancing it or they return right to CTIC which is another big win since clinical trials are essentially done and the program is relatively close to
    market.

    3. Shire becomes our partner but puts the program on the shelf. I don't see that they can do this or would want to do this. I say they would either advance it aggressively or give it back. Both are wins for CTIC.

    4. Baxalta buys CTIC. To me this makes sense for so many reasons. First, CTIC is cheap and Baxalta has to recognize this if they believe they own revenue projections for pacritinib. Also, one would think the mgmt of Baxalta is made up of business people who would take out a partner if that partner was important and the program was cheap. Finally, Baxalta needs to make clear why moving forward with Shire doesn't make sense. One way to do this is to start buying things as well.

    I don't see any obvious clouds on the horizon for CTIC and I do see a potential buyout. All my opinion of course.

  • Reply to

    CTIC longs

    by investormdpart2 Aug 5, 2015 5:14 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Aug 5, 2015 11:12 PM Flag

    I think Bianco benefits if we benefit. However, he may very well want to keep the price down so it's easier to sell CTI. This is all purely speculation on my part of course. I'm being a bit of a conspiracy theorists here so take what I'm saying with a grain of salt. My point is simply that it may be easier to sell CTI if the price doesn't rise too much. Bianco will make out great on a deal even at $3.50/share. Having said this, if he doesn't sell it then without a doubt he will want to the price to rise. There is no incentive for him to keep the price down longterm. The only motivation would be to sell the company.

    Again, purely speculation on my part. Also, I'm not actually sure that any insider is doing anything illegal. Maybe the stock really just won't go up and no one is manipulating it. Alternatively, maybe powers beyond CTI are keeping it low and are acquiring shares at the same time as they anticipate a rise.

    I don't know much about Bianco. What I do know is that this team has done a great job advancing pacritinib. What I don't understand is how the price is this low. Thats the reason for my speculation. I'm trying to figure out how a price can stay this low even when there is a drug this good...and we're in a red hot bio market.

    I hate to single mgmt out because I have seen so many situations where it really wasn't mgmt playing the games. In this case it very well may not be. I just can't figure out why the price won't move and one thing I know is that this company will be much easier to sell for say $3.50 than $5.00. It's not hard to get a 2x on a company like this....especially at this valuation.

    Now I may be in the minority saying this but I personally would take a $3.50 exit. I have investor fatigue to some extent. I know the value of pacritinab but I would take $3.50. Maybe not smart but I would like an exit. I think over $5 is much more fair, but I'm not sure we will see it.

    All just my opinion.

  • Reply to

    easy to short.....no support

    by blankwillie Jul 27, 2015 11:55 AM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Aug 5, 2015 9:09 PM Flag

    Also, BMS is obligated to buy another large bolus of QURE stock before year end at a 10% premium to market. It's conceivable that QURE could be taken out by BMS at some stage, but I don't see it just now. However, the price is low and M&A fever is running extremely hot.

  • investormdpart2 by investormdpart2 Aug 5, 2015 5:14 PM Flag

    CTIC Longs...I wanted to share a post I wrote earlier. Thoughts?

    I agree that Bianco could be manipulating the price to make for a sweetheart deal with Baxalta. His comp plan pays him very well in an M&A deal..even a bad one! However, now he has some real pressure (if he was doing this) because Shire is knocking on the door of Baxalta. If that discussion gains momentum it would back-burner any potential deal with CTI. If I'm Bianco I'm trying to sell CTI to Baxalta right now. Maybe I'm even willing to take $3.50-$4.00 to get a deal done because Bianco knows that Shire may or may not be a supportive partner should they end up buying Baxalta. I think Shire would be supportive of the program, but you can never tell with these groups that aggressively grow via M&A.

    If Bianco is keeping the price low then it's low enough now that a $3.50 deal could probably buy the whole company. Not many shareholders would fight for more. No one likes this management team or believes they know how to get the price up.

    For Baxalta it's a win-win-win. They gets all rights to pacritinib, they do away with CTI's management team so decision making is easier and they can use the full ownership of CTI's assets as a bargaining tool in future negotiations with groups like Shire (or others). They need to argue that Baxalta is worth more than the value that Shire proposed and one way would be to fully own pacritinib and CTI's assets.

    There is an x-factor here....Bianco owns a decent amount of shares but an activist investor could move in here if they wanted to. His comp plan again protects him, but these things can always be challenged legally. This is especially the case if it can be shown that he breached fiduciary responsibilities. The bottom line is that CTI should be trading much higher. If there is a conspiracy here then I expect Bianco to get a deal done very soon.

    We obviously all make more money if a deal doesn't happen right now and the story actually matur

  • Reply to

    todays 's 8K

    by lenny_b_good Jun 10, 2015 9:46 AM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Aug 5, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    Hi Sanjeev, I meant to respond to your post sooner. I agree that Bianco could be manipulating the price to make for a sweetheart deal with Baxalta. His comp plan pays him very well in an M&A deal..even a bad one! However, now he has some real pressure (if he was doing this) because Shire is knocking on the door of Baxalta. If that discussion gains momentum it would back-burner any potential deal with CTI. If I'm Bianco I'm trying to sell CTI to Baxalta right now. Maybe I'm even willing to take $3.50-$4.00 to get a deal done because Bianco knows that Shire may or may not be a supportive partner should they end up buying Baxalta. I think Shire would be supportive of the program, but you can never tell with these groups that aggressively grow via M&A.

    If Bianco is keeping the price low then it's low enough now that a $3.50 deal could probably buy the whole company. Not many shareholders would fight for more. No one likes this management team or believes they know how to get the price up.

    For Baxalta it's a win-win-win. They gets all rights to pacritinib, they do away with CTI's management team so decision making is easier and they can use the full ownership of CTI's assets as a bargaining tool in future negotiations with groups like Shire (or others). They need to argue that Baxalta is worth more than the value that Shire proposed and one way would be to fully own pacritinib and CTI's assets.

    There is an x-factor here....Bianco owns a decent amount of shares but an activist investor could move in here if they wanted to. His comp plan again protects him, but these things can always be challenged legally. This is especially the case if it can be shown that he breached fiduciary responsibilities. The bottom line is that CTI should be trading much higher. If there is a conspiracy here then I expect Bianco to get a deal done very soon.

    We obviously all make more money if a deal doesn't happen right now and the story actually matures.

  • investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Aug 5, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    Absolutely agree.

  • Reply to

    Express Scripts

    by investormdpart2 Jul 29, 2015 2:22 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Jul 29, 2015 10:40 PM Flag

    I agree. I worry because these payers stifle innovation. However, no one can say existing therapies are adequate so they will have to pay.

  • investormdpart2 by investormdpart2 Jul 29, 2015 2:31 PM Flag

    Comments by Express Scripts today about Regeneron's and Amgen's drug for cholesterol are putting pressure on the stocks as price controls are likely coming.

    http://news.yahoo.com/express-scripts-says-costly-cholesterol-drugs-could-wreak-153248982--finance.html

  • investormdpart2 by investormdpart2 Jul 29, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    What do you all make of the statement from Express Scripts. The same happened with Gilead. There will be pricing pressure/competition between the groups bringing these treatments to market

    http://news.yahoo.com/express-scripts-says-costly-cholesterol-drugs-could-wreak-153248982--finance.html

  • Reply to

    Alzheimer's Drug

    by gizmo_puppy95 Jul 24, 2015 3:07 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Jul 24, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    The endpoint was meaningless. Also, look at DHEA....it works through the same mechanism and was tried in Alzheimer's. Failed big time.

  • investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Jul 23, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    It just supports that Baxalta/CTI are actively advancing pacritinib into other indications as promised. I don't know when this will translate into a significant price movement as it looks like the powers that be are holding this in place. The trading range is pretty consistent.

  • Pacritinib Before Transplant for Myeloproliferative Neoplasms (MPN)
    This study is currently recruiting participants. (see Contacts and Locations)
    Verified July 2015 by M.D. Anderson Cancer Center

  • Reply to

    todays 's 8K

    by lenny_b_good Jun 10, 2015 9:46 AM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Jun 10, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    That posted before I was ready. My point #4 is that Baxalta has publicly stated that they believe that pacritinib could generate in excess of $6B in revenue. If this number is correct then CTIC is an extremely undervalued stock right now. It's so undervalued that Baxalta would have every single justification to acquire them as soon as possible. Having said this, Baxalta is currently listing on the NYSE and the stock will start to trade in early July. As such, i don't anticipate any huge corporate moves for the next few months. However, CTI has to be firmly in their sites if they are putting numbers of $6B+ in front of analysts. Pacritinib is core to Baxalta's strategy. That has to be making INCY investors (especially the biggest of them) very nervous.

NBIX
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