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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

investormdpart2 153 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Mar 11, 2009
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  • Reply to

    good comments from TheStreetGutter

    by eatonshorts Apr 30, 2015 8:36 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 6 hours ago Flag

    Thanks for sharing. I don't think there is any question about the potential value of BLUE. However, I don't think CLDN in any way diminishes the upside for QURE. I didn't see any safety issues in the CLDN trial and there wasn't an indication that AAV didn't function correctly. I would say the issue was with CLDN's gene target or poor execution at some level. Both lenti and AAV are likely to play a large role in the future of gene therapy IMO.

  • Reply to

    CLDN Trials Failed--

    by golongin2008 Apr 26, 2015 10:12 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 26, 2015 10:40 PM Flag

    Very hard to know. QURE pulled back a lot already from recent highs and part of the reason may have been the potential competition from CLDN. The gene therapies are different, but it's obviously much better for QURE if CLDN isn't a competitor. Also, BMS bought just under 5% of the company at $33.84 so that provides some support.

    At the same time, gene therapy companies in general could take a hit just because they've gone up so much. However, UniQure seems very fairly valued to me as they were undervalued for a long time.

    Ultimately, this isn't bad news for UniQure. It might be bad news for the gene therapy sector but that's not clear. In the long term, it obviously benefits QURE to not have CLDN as a competitor and market leader.

    Like you said, it's really hard to predict whether this goes up or down. It just as easily could rally since QURE is now the definite dominant player in the cardio gene therapy space.

  • investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 23, 2015 9:26 PM Flag

    I was in INCY and YMI before CTIC all for their JAKs. I made a lot of money on both...bet you weren't in either. Pacritinib seems to be the real deal....I'm long and strong...and you're ignored.

  • investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 23, 2015 11:39 AM Flag

    Centeritide definitely works through the natriuretic system. The news to watch in this space is Novartis LCZ696 which also impacts the natriuretic system. LCZ696 is up for FDA approval this August and is expected to be a mega blockbuster. This should fuel interest in other groups in the space. I'm an investor in CAPR for this reason and also in PTN as they have a problem at a similar stage of development and that program is PT3994 which is a synthetic natriuretic peptide antagonist.
    Both companies are interesting above and beyond these programs, but I do believe the approval of LCZ696 will fuel interest in cardio companies and especially companies with natriuretic programs.

  • investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 22, 2015 8:44 AM Flag

    First Phase 3 is done. Results are being presented at ASCO. Second Phase 3 has a very good chance of generating excellent results considering you don't see signals like these in myelofibrosis without true efficacy. The safety also looks very good. This isn't a typical 50/50 situation by any stretch in my opinion.

  • investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 22, 2015 8:08 AM Flag

    Definitely very good news

  • Reply to

    Thanks all

    by investormdpart2 Apr 15, 2015 9:47 AM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 15, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    You definitely have nothing to worry about in my profit category. I can guarantee you that we're not in the same ballpark.

    Apologies to quality and long term posters. I don't typically respond to the loudmouth ignorant ones but couldnt help it. As I said, I may be back. Looking forward to seeing how the execute over the next few months.

  • Reply to

    Thanks all

    by investormdpart2 Apr 15, 2015 9:47 AM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 15, 2015 2:16 PM Flag

    I'm concerned about three major things probably in this order:

    1. FDA Panel. I had hoped that the priority review designation would negate the need for a panel. However, Uli indicated on a call that they would indeed have to face a panel. I don't have any particular reason to fear a panel, but panels in general are a bit unpredictable. Pima should get approval, but it's hard to know if there will be any concerns regarding things like cardio or additional requirements to get to market. I simply cannot predict what a panel might want to see and that alone makes me a bit uncomfortable.

    2. Alzheimer's results. I truly have no idea how these will turn out. The disease pathology is so different even if the symptoms are similar. It's another unknown for me and I don't typically invest around unknowns unless i can handicap enough other variables in my favor.

    3. Cash. As others pointed out, past fund raises haven't hurt the stock so this one isn't a major concern.

    I'm also just turned off by the filing delays. I accept the reason, but it does cause me to worry more about the FDA panel. They will need to be prepared completely. I assume that they will be ready. However, the core variables I was counted on changed so that the biggest risk was no longer Alzheimer's data. Now it's a panel, but I do believe they should get through it.

    A key question of course is the extent to which serotonin 2a antagonism causes cardiac concern and of this is the reason atypicals carry the black box. It's not the dopamine component of atyoicals so I'm wondering how the panel will perceive a highly selective 2a antagonist.

  • Reply to

    Thanks all

    by investormdpart2 Apr 15, 2015 9:47 AM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 15, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    I'm definitely not arguing with you on this point. I think Pima could have tremendous upside. I just want to see how Acadia executes over the next several months. I can always move back in, but not today.

  • Reply to

    Thanks all

    by investormdpart2 Apr 15, 2015 9:47 AM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 15, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    This was my final 2000 shares and I was waiting for them to mature to long term capital gains which happened today. I sold off the bulk of my holdings for about $35 which was my prespecified exit point. I realize that many see this as a low target, but it's a target I'm comfortable with. I might buy again depending on developments.

  • Reply to

    Thanks all

    by investormdpart2 Apr 15, 2015 9:47 AM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 15, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    Thank you very much. I'm a long time Acadia follower so I will definitely post now and then. I might buy again...we'll see.

  • Reply to

    Thanks all

    by investormdpart2 Apr 15, 2015 9:47 AM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 15, 2015 12:24 PM Flag

    If you saw my earlier posts you would know I've sold on a number of occasions. I was very upfront about all of my selling. This was my final 2000 shares down from way more than that. I hit my final target of about $35 overall. Exactly where I planned to exit.

  • investormdpart2 by investormdpart2 Apr 15, 2015 9:47 AM Flag

    I'm completely out of Acadia for now. My target was always $35 and with the recent uncertainty I had to take the profits and leave the table. I may be back, but it depends on the execution of management. I agree with others that a new CEO is needed if this doesn't go the way of M&A. Davis hasn't steered a ship this big before. Perhaps he can step up and handle the task of getting Nuplazid to market, but I'm not certain. He's fine for M&A.

    Like others, I'm not understanding the length of the NDA delay. This is what led me to believe that an M&A process was being pursued. However, my logic is a bit faulty because Uli should have been able to sell the company if the goal was indeed to sell the company. This means that they either couldn't get the desired valuation or they REALLY ARE planning to go to market alone. Going to market alone is of course the most lucrative pathway, but is also the riskiest. I don't foresee any obvious issues with the FDA, but FDA panels make me nervous and Uli stated that they would have to face a panel. Also, the NDA delay means that Acadia may have Alzheimer's data before approval. This scenario doesn't please me as pending Alzheimer's data (post-approval) would have brought a lot of hype to the stock and good opportunities to exit.

    In terms of Alzheimer's, it's a coin toss since the underlying disease pathology is different. At the same time, if they can show any improvement on agitation, sleep or cognition it's a home run.

    I'm not looking for a lower entry point, but I am looking to see some execution out of management. We haven't had significant positive news flow for a long time now. The other issue for me is that they have cash until the end of 2016. This should last through the NDA process, but I'm just a bit uncomfortable with the dwindling cash.

    The risk/reward has changed for me. I'm on the sidelines until I can see a strong reason to enter again. I had an amazing run with Acadia.

  • Reply to

    Short list for CEO close to complete

    by crecy_war_knight Apr 10, 2015 2:43 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 12, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    I don't think you're appreciating the power of Baker Bros in this situation or the fact that Davis has a long history of collaborating with them. This comes down to a company that wants to be sold and doesn't want to launch on their own. I believe that.

  • Reply to

    Short list for CEO close to complete

    by crecy_war_knight Apr 10, 2015 2:43 PM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 12, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    I honestly still believe that Davis will be the guy and that he will complete an M&A deal. His history with Baker Bros is simply too strong.

  • Reply to

    Talk !!!!

    by mundomayagold Apr 9, 2015 9:23 AM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 9, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    I think the chatter is picking up because groups like Motley Fool are writing about the possibility. However, the likelihood is very high in my opinion. I don't see Davis being replaced as CEO. I see him leading the deal that ultimately leads to Acadia's buyout.

  • investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 6, 2015 3:04 PM Flag

    Not sure, but you can bet some shorts got severely burned here. Analyst upgrades will be coming very soon. Spark Therapeutics is still valued at 3X more than UniQure..there is no justification for that.

  • Reply to

    It's all about study data

    by rayonman11 Apr 6, 2015 12:56 AM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 6, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    We shall see. I agree that additional validation is needed, but the proof of concept is in place in my opinion.

    LCZ696 is definitely positive for PTN. That program is more complex as it does include an ARB, but it still brings a lot of attention to natriurectic peptides. LCZ696 should be approved by the end of August and it's likely to be a major blockbuster which means it's going to bring attention to this space. Cardiovascular is red hot for partnering so I am expecting a partner for 3994. I would like to see that happen before the end of June, but I'm of course only guessing based on deal cycles and what management has stated.

  • investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 6, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Proof of concept is phase 2a and that's in place. There is much to work out but a Phase 2 study is not that expensive and a partner could easily pony up the funds to explore this program. The biggest validation for this program is not PTN's internal data. It's LCZ696.

  • Reply to

    It's all about study data

    by rayonman11 Apr 6, 2015 12:56 AM
    investormdpart2 investormdpart2 Apr 6, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    It's clear that I'm not causing any "froth" since I'm also very clear that this is all my opinion and I stress others to do their own DD.

    It sounds like you're looking for a level of safety that doesn't come with highly speculative biotech. You're suggesting that investors wait until after FDA approval (and perhaps subsequent partnering) to invest. You're also saying that licensing deals and/or M&A shouldn't be factored into an investment decision. Biopharma outfits live and die by their large pharma deals and the deals often bring non-dilutive funding and program support.

    Knowing what is attractive to investors and partners is a big key to investment success. I'm going to trust my instincts that PTN is on the right track. I'm looking forward to seeing what they bring to the table between now and the end of the year. However, deal cycles run hot this time of year and through June. We'll see.

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