Are you serious? The reason is really obvious. If they announce then they have to pay way above market of course. You acquire as much as possible quietly before ever announcing something like that. BB could easily come in with a syndicate of large investors and end this thing. I'm not saying that's what will happen but it wouldn't be tough.
Not true...i think they did it with Trimeris. They also did an interesting transaction with Neurogen. I've long said they might take this private.
You know your process but why no mention of the second Phase 3 wave off? Do you know that is without precedent in CNS. It has never happened. That is bigger than anything else.
And negotiations with potential partners of course. If you appear to be growing and expanding the price will only rise.
He knows nothing about small biotech and pharma. It's not a knock of him.....his analysts aren't that good.
Absolutely. This is why they are not expanding and the extra cash allows them to drive a great deal because they actually can go it alone if they really want to. Exciting days.
Your point is a great one. The answer is it's not possible and it hints big time at M&A. They are basically virtual....makes it so simple for pharma to buy the entire company. I love it when a company stays lean and mean like this. Simple M&A process IMO.
I could see $30/share. If Abbvie wanted them it could get done really fast. It's hard to know the value of the VMAT program as it's still really early stage, but Elagolix is special. 90-95% of the value of NBIX is tied to Elagolix. It is trading like it is going to be acquired though.
Patient recruitment is a huge piece to the puzzle as you say. Also, Acadia knows how to run a successful trial in terms of doctor/patient interaction times, etc.
There were 5HT2a antagonists in the clinic at one time but these were simple antagonists that didn't have the inverse agonist profile. Anything out there is still so early that it's not even registering on the radar at this time. Pimavanserin is all alone and glowing magnificently.
It's definitely true that I really think Acadia is very special and I do have a really large position by my standards. However, I would always caution others to do their own DD and make sure the stock is the right fit for them. I'm hopeful for some type of pivotal M&A event, but I'm prepared to wait much longer if that becomes necessary. Anyway, good luck.
WIth all due respect, I don't agree that the massive run is at all unjustified. Let me put it to you like this:
Let's say ACAD had to run the next Phase 3 and then they nailed the next trial with the same exact data. So now we have two phase 3's with stellar data in hand. Would we be saying that the drug may not be all that....that perhaps the run is too much? No, we wouldn't be saying that. Because it happened so fast scares people away so the only way to understand this valuation is to know the historical facts involved such as the fact that the FDA has never waved off a Phase 3 trial. Therefore, we must accept that the FDA is saying that the next Phase 3 (that will never take place) was of the exact same results. So we essentially have a candidate with a perfect safety profile, tremendous efficacy in PDP (which mimics ADP) and plenty of data to suggest efficacy in schizophrenia. On top of this, those of us who know the serotonergic system know that 5HT2A candidates were at one time all the rage because of their potential in a broad array of CNS conditions. None of those earlier candidates were inverse agonists which means that the receptor isn't dampened...it's blocked. There is a big difference between calming and being silenced.
So....we look at all of this....and then we look at the history of compounds in the CNS space and we that almost every compound from risperidone to gabapentin to provigil went on to be prescribed on and off-label for a huge number of conditions because these diseases are very complex and impacting just one symptom drastically can have a profound impact on the life of the patient. Stroke patients, Alzheimer's patients, schizophrenic patients, bipolar patients, Parkinson's patients, depressed patients.....sometimes they have no quality of life whatsoever and their caregivers also suffer.
My opinion is that I'm not at all ahead of myself...I would argue that I'm not even close to being ahead of myself.
PDP impacts a huge number of Parkinson's patients. Merck's drug likely would have been an adjunct at best to levadopa. However, I'm going to throw out there that we shouldn't assume that pimavanserin only impacts PDP. The mechanism of action suggests that it might have a more profound impact on the disease as 2a blockage increases dopamine in the frontal lobes. It has been years since I did research in this area, but I remember it from my scientific days.
All my opinion but pimavanserin shares a market with no other drugs in its class...it owns the entire potential market for this particular class of agent in Parkinson's, Alzheimer's, schiz and other indications. I think they need to look at bipolar disorder also. I saw that seeking alpha said potential revenue of maybe $2b...way too conservative in my opinion. These silly analysts look at a drug like risperidone, but fail to understand that risperidone shared their market with olanzapine, aripiprazole, quetiapine and others. There is only ONE pimavanserin...this pie gets cut one way....we get the whole pie. When analysts realize that things will become much more interesting.
Well, I think the press release would make you feel better because Merck went on to discuss just how tough Parkinson's is to treat. I walked away with an even bigger appreciation for what Acadia has done. It's so rare to see a true breakthrough medication. I know quite a bit about the 5HT2A mechanism that pimavanserin works through and there are reasons (neurological) to ponder whether it might actually have a positive impact on other disease symptoms because of it's method of action. It has been postulated that blocking 5HT2A results in a net increase of dopamine in certain brain regions. It should be mentioned that the adenosine A2A program also works by increasing dopamine in certain brain regions, but hitting the right regions/combinations is very tough.
Pimavanserin is simply starting to look special. I'm really looking forward to more data releases as it may be that the story is more exciting than we realize. It's possible that PDP is just the beginning in Parkinson's disease. Also, the ADP side is just crazy. I've been investing for so long now and I still can't wrap my head around the potential opportunity here.
So yes, I get why you were feeling bad for the patients and I always feel that way too. However, it's all just making me see pimavanserin as being that much more significant. Breakthrough....that's such a rare word....it hasn't happened in CNS in many years.