I think we're all set on the idea that the FDA needs a strong NDA package so that's what Acadia is going to provide. Now the NDA is within reach...it's not far off now.
In terms of data leaking from the Alzheimer's study, extremely doubtful. Data would be preliminary at best at this point and also blinded. I'm not even considering Alzheimer's results as having any type of impact on Acadia now. This is all about biotech coming unglued.
The single best thing Acadia did was raise that cash at 28.50.
It provides a real value point in terms of what institutions think Acadia is worth now.
Of course there was a discount and these investors want to see it go up. That money in the bank was brilliant and just before the crash so at the market peak.
If you're worrying about this then go listen to the Needham webcast from last week. It's on Acadia's website. It should put your fears to rest.
I cannot tell you guys how many times I have hit ignore today. Who are these people and where do they come from? It's like these slugs that lurk in the background and then they come out suddenly when things get bad. I'm ignoring all of them.
I've said it before and will say it again....listening to that guy ended up costing me major money in prior years. If he wants to make enemies with big dog funds like Baker then I wish him luck. Not wise IMO.
I think you nailed it. It was that approximate 3900 mark and once it got there we bounced hard. I believe 3933 represented a 10% correction for the market. Biotech being so drastically oversold obviously stands to rebound the most aggressively. What a crazy few days! We're still standing.
That is program selling. If BB wants to do something they should be ready to load up when the window opens to do so. We don't know their cash situation but others pointed out (probably correctly) that they can access funds when necessary.
A buyout becomes more likely with each passing day of weakness. Acadia is now totally vulnerable and it's true there would be a bidding war but in a time of extreme weakness the price will still be lower than it would otherwise IMO. Acadia has no news to help break in this downward spiral...news would help. Evena a note from management would help, but I guess it's against policy.
There is one x-factor here. Baker could make a move on all the outstanding shares because it's really cheap now. I'm not saying that will happen, but the price is low enough that Acadia is vulnerable to any number of scenarios. It's quite amazing that after a year of holding I'm back to where I started.
I've been in the game for as long as you and would say I've never seen this before. It's as if the machines have taken over and relentless small trades are driving it down. With no big buyers it's hard to know what stops this.
In my mind at some point opportunity becomes too good and something will stop it. That's just my opinion but why wouldn't someone just take it all out...it's being given away? I don't like the vulnerability to a buyout.
The one silver lining here is that fund raising at $28.50....that was seriously incredible timing and gives Acadia a long term power others just don't have. I'm afraid the longs are going to have to endure serious pain and I'm one of them but damn if I'm folding. No way. I'm hanging in. Just my opinion and please do own DD.
It's interesting no doubt. Gotta love Napodano's info.
Did anyone listen to the Needham CC...that was a very good call. Nervous investors should listen.
I don't think it's manipulation. PCYC and other groups also had catastrophic drops. I'm quite certain that some funds were forced out of positions. It's just my opinion, but the relentless selling seems to me to be the result of groups being forced to come up with funds. I feel like last week was the earthquake and this is the aftershock. As far as we know, the fundamentals remain strong so this looks like overextended groups being forced out. Painful for sure, but not unheard of. All my opinion...we'll see. I'm holding and adding actually.
After what happened to biotech in general it's in keeping with what's happening to others. Groups like Medivation gave up their gains also.
I think there is massive margin calling going on. This drop was insane so there is damage to be sorted out. Large funds can survive them these but overextended little funds can get crushed. We'll see who did what when institutions report holdings but my guess is that there were be some groups that don't survive this.
I think it's definitely part that and also reminds me of the genomic implosion when some funds were on margin or just got overextended and had to liquidate everything. This fall was too drastic to not severely damage groups that were completely exposed. Today feels like capitulation. I mean we've given up almost all the gains from the prior offering around $12. Crazy.
It's possible that one of our large holders was forced into a position of needing to liquidate shares to cover losses. That's just a guess but this type of (biotech wide) drop was so drastic that I'm confident there is some carnage out there. If not news (which I suspect - just my opinion) then this is a bargain. I stick by what I said earlier...Acadia is becoming vulnerable to a buyout. Way too cheap. This is crazy. All my opinion...do own DD etc.