That was an incredible call. This is reminding me of a young Celgene. Nothing to do here but buy, accumulate and hold.
I'll give you a bunch of catalysts that could keep it up:
1. Any news regarding launch of Alzheimer's Phase 2 trial. It's coming sooner than later now that the other PDP phase 3 isn't needed.
2. Any additional news regarding Phase 2 schizophrenia studies.
3. Any news about additional Baker Brothers or other large hedge fund buys. They're already up to 30%...why wouldn't they go to 40% or actually all the way? It has been done before by activist shareholders.
4. Additional upgrades by banks.
5. Any news that again shortens the time to NDA in PDP.
6. Unexpected solicitation from large pharma. Large pharma has no reason to wait on trying to partner with Acadia. The second Phase 3 is no longer needed so you're looking at a program that in the eyes of the FDA has achieved a high level of statistical significance and safety. I would look at the next trials that Acadia launches. A broad offering of Phase 2's is what I'd like to see...from Alzheimer's to schizophrenia to perhaps bipolar and insomnia. All this does is up the value of the program. Any one of these indications is blockbuster...combined takes pimavanserin to the top of the pack IMO. Best in show is my opinion.
I think you better listen to the CC tomorrow. I would love a dip personally as I can add, but it just keeps gapping up on you guys.
I've not seen so many shorts freaking out in a long time. You're working day and night to get this down, but it keeps jumping up on you guys. Just how screwed are you all on this? Did you short after the positive Phase 3 results because you thought another Phase 3 would be needed? Do you realize that you're now buying a company with the equivalent of two positive Phase 3's (because the second one was waved off)? Yes, CMC work is needed but come on.....that's not exactly the same thing as another Phase 3.
You're talking about a molecule that could literally be as successful (or even more so IMO) than risperidone or zyprexa. Maybe you don't have a lot of experience with small pharma or bio, but this stock is really cheap when you start looking at the efficacy and potential indications. Safety signals are minimal. My opinion is that large pharma is salivating right now. Acadia may or may not be talking to partners yet, but I'm going to bet that partners are going to be engaging Acadia very aggressively.
Potential efficacy in Alzheimer's and schizophrenia take any already very attractive molecule and basically take it to absolute best in show IMO. I'm just really shocked to see so many shorts out here. I've been playing in biotech/pharma for way over a decade and this is an interesting situation. It makes me think that a short squeeze might be coming. You guys seem really nervous. Acadia presents tomorrow morning btw. My best advice, and it's just my opinion, is to cover. Acadia looks beautiful to me.
The best stock to study is Incyte where Baker Bros took a very large position when it was still quite inexpensive. They also took a BOD seat. The situation is very similar. I think we all know how much money investors made there. It's going to be really hard for other funds to muscle Acadia around and it's going to be harder for large pharma companies to get great terms in licensing or M&A.
IMO, it's likely that Acadia will end up partnering worldwide rights or will be bought out. They don't have the infrastructure for a drug launch. They're actually set up perfectly for M&A, but the price isn't close to high enough. Licensing is interesting, but they're going to have to trust the partner. Biovail bailed after the merger with Valeant. I can promise you that Valeant is licking wounds from that decision. Pfizer, Lilly and AstraZeneca are really obvious partner or M&A candidates. Forest is smaller, but they have revenue to replace and this looks like a great fit. All my opinion, but Acadia is sitting pretty on a tee for the right group to take the big swing.
Why shouldn't the employees of this company get incentives? They've done a remarkable job. Baker Bros holds 30% of this company and holds a BOD seat...they're cool with it and they have more riding on this than anyone. When a company executes then the employees should get something. No one can deny just how well Acadia has turned things around. They should pay themselves....lots of us are already sitting on huge returns, but like Acadia employees, we think those returns are going to grow a lot more. All my opinion, but you can't prove anything by just spouting statements. Anyone can do that. And bringing up a few insider sells isn't going to cut it. Some of these guys have 10x returns and they're going to clear something off. Sometimes when you're too close to a situation it's hard to see just how big it can be and it's tempting to lock in gains. I have no problem with that. Apparently, I'm not alone in that!
Proving you wrong:
1. PDP alone is a very large indication. We don't need expanded label or off-label to become huge.
2. PDP is the pathway to market, but no one knows if they're going to look for an expanded label to cover Alzheimer's, schizophrenia and others or if they'll go for off-label use. Label expansion is expensive, but
the upside is obviously astronomical.
3. From 1995 to 2008, antipsychotic use for indications without FDA approval increased from 4.4M visits in 1995 to 9.0M in 2008. The estimated cost associated with off-label use in 2008 was US$6.0 billion. Bipolar disorder was one of the primary off-label indications.
Alexander, G et al., (2011). INCREASING OFF-LABEL USE OF ANTIPSYCHOTIC MEDICATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1995-2008. Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf. 2011 February; 20(2): 177–184. Published online 2011 January 6. doi: 10.1002/pds.2082
4. More than one-fifth of U.S. nursing home residents take at least one antipsychotic medication. These are typically prescribed for off-label use, according to a research letter published in a 2013 issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association.
5. 'Off-label drug uses are often widely accepted, and private insurance companies as well as Medicare and Medicaid will reimburse for these off-label uses because the medical community or medical compendiums on effective treatment consider them "standard of care." In cancer treatment, for instance, many patients are routinely treated with one or more drugs for an off-label indication. Tricyclic antidepressants have largely been supplanted by more focused drugs to treat depression, but their off-label use to treat neuropathic pains associated with strokes, spinal-cord injuries, or cerebral palsy is a common and preferred medical treatment'.
R. H. Dworkin et al., "Recommendations for the Pharmacological Management of Neuropathic Pain: An Overview and Literature Update," Mayo Clinic Proceedings 85, no. 3, suppl. (2010): S3–S14
I was an early investor in Incyte and all Incyte investors likely remember the commanding position that Baker Bros took in Incyte. They made an absolute fortune there. I'm sure that Baker Bros views Acadia as their next huge winner. They already own something like 30% which is obviously huge. It seems to me that they're not done adding either. They certainly have the funds to buy the entire company if they so desired.
Valuing Acadia isn't really that difficult because the on-ramp via Parkinson's psychosis is going to rapidly lead to a drug with known efficacy in schizophrenia, possibly Alzheimer's, possibly depressive conditions and possibly even insomnia. It has ultra-blockbuster written all over it. This is the type of compound that can literally make a pharma company. I almost don't want them to be taken out because of the huge potential here. It makes me thing of Celgene when they were just at $1B...they're now at $50B.
The FDA has waived the need for the next trial....an NDA is going to happen and off-label use will be huge. This is early days and Acadia is a steal IMO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I absolutely hear you loud and clear on that one. She has solid VC affiliation, but it won't be VC's taking things to the next level. She will have to attract institutional investors. We need way more information about Ocera and their lead compounds. Vipin Garg said something about a powerpoint presentation being posted to TZYM's website.
True, but I'm sure with time they would find a way to take some on given time.
Liquidation wouldn't have brought any value to shareholders so I guess a reverse merger was the only way to go. It looks like BMS gave no value to the platform which is too bad. That would have been a clean and easy exit.
I don't see the obvious value for the TZYM shareholders. I think the value for the new investors of the $20M is really obvious. They're the winners in this deal.
Linda Grais seems to have a good background, but her last two companies (SGX and ARCA) both struggled and I can't see that she has ever been the CEO of any other public company....or private. Wishing her good luck....guess this is her chance.
Ocera seems interesting, but won't the new investors be motivated to drive down the share price before investing their new $20M? Seems obvious that they would.
Also, no composition of matter yet for the lead compound in the US and EU. Method of use are complex patents....i want to see composition of matter.
This might be an interesting play after the $20M investment. I'm buying in where the new investors buy in. This could tank for a bit very easily. The only good thing is that TZYM seems to have initial investors still holding large chuncks so there may not be that much out there to allow it to go down.
I guess it was this or bankruptcy. I thought they would marry a local company and try to spend their remaining cash on a last shot. Kinda feel like their surrendering to Ocera.
They are scared to death and they should be. Large institutions will continue to acquire huge blocks and the float will tighten. Shorts are in really deep...some will be forced to cover. I love it...they play the odds but every now and then they just get beat down because their ignorance is exposed.
There have been many biotechs that traded well into the billion market cap range with solid Phase 3 data. You have no clue what you're talking about. Zero.
Absolutely correct and it's the off-label that is so incredibly exciting. Think about pima being used in schizophrenia or Alzheimer's. The potential is unreal. I don't think this has even started to really move yet. I was in CEPH back in the day when provigil came to market. This is the real deal.