Good Lord...do you people know anything about biotech? They cannot see the results!
No!! They would not get any dibs on the data before investors! That would result in Gil being locked up and he's not dumb or crooked as far as I know. At $10M upfront this was a tiny deal for Chugai...call it a hedge and with mixed data they can still do something with it in Japan. Mixed data isn't getting them anything in the US.
You guys sound like casino gamblers. There have no way of seeing the blinded data. This was a hedge and they paid very little upfront. With robust data in-hand the deal would have been way larger upfront. If the data ends up being bad then Athersys has done a great deal. If it's mixed then Chugai still may be able to move it ahead in Japan because of the regenerative medicine laws.
$10M upfront..that's the key number. Nothing else matters until we see the data and that's why the stock isn't moving today.
Why? They operate independently.
The bottom line is that all this deal did was add $10M to the balance sheet for now. We'll see how the data looks. I think it will be mixed, but let's see.
Anyway, I think doing this deal was a good hedge for Athersys as it will keep them relevant in Japan. If their data is negative the stock price is obviously going way down.
Okay, but if they delay I'm going to be very annoyed. Uli has represented that they will file this quarter (at JP from what I recall) so I'm assuming the filing will happen in March. They're going to take all the time they have to make it perfect. At least I would.
PTN has done a good job talking about the PL-3994 attributes. One of the main attributes is that it's not a combo therapy like the Novartis drug. Another attribute is that it's injectable which may mean it will have a place in the hospital setting. Being second behind a giant like Novartis is nothing but good. Let them do the heavy lifting. Partners will chase this asset.
I'm not doing any DD for anyone else and don't mean that rude. If you know PTN then you know why this was significant news. If you don't know then you should study up as it's probably the best reason to be long here and the worst reason to be short.
That's not why. I will post a new link to show you why.
Do we know when earnings will be released? I haven't seen anything yet. Your point is a good one.
I understand that the approaches are different since neural stem cells were injected into the spinal canal on Day 1 and then MSCs were given by IV infusion on Day 2. Day 2 gives great hope to ATHX investors. We don't know the role of the neural stem cells, but obviously the MSCs give reason to be very hopeful.
Spark completed their IPO today and are trading with a market cap of over $1B. Spark is absolutely a comp for UniQure, but they're not as advanced. They also use AAV and have a pipeline that is certainly not superior to UniQure's. In my opinion, there is no reason UniQure should not have a market cap of around $1B at this time. The launch of Glybera and the start of the hemophilia clinical trial should help. However, we are trading at a third of Spark and that doesn't make sense.
It's part market and part that investors are waiting for the NDA filing. Based on Acadia's representations, that should be between now and the end of March. I would like to see it sooner than later, but I'm not all that concerned as I do believe that Acadia will file in Q1 (as promised). We're drifting but it's a pretty slow drift. With a $50 target I'm feeling pretty comfortable right now.
It's an interesting situation. The shorts must be gambling that the NDA filing is expected at this point so won't increase the share price very much. My hope has always been that we would get priority review within 60 days on the NDA filing and this would give the stock some upward momentum. Of course, there is no guarantee of a priority review. I think another delay in the NDA filing would be an upset since Acadia stated at JPM that it would be this quarter. I'm at least really counting on them to follow through on this promise.
The other bet could simply be that there is a biotech bubble and the shorts aren't really thinking all that much about the fundamentals of Acadia. Very hard to know. It is indeed getting interesting.