Slow but sure rise for Fe ore
Yesterdays price closing settled at 48.60 todays opening bid is at 48.75
Chlorine tankers...national first responders organization lobbying for new specs and retrofits of haz-mat tankers. Looks like legislation will pass. Politicians listen to firefighters, they are like puppies...everyone loves them.
To answer private message...I am looking at getting in ATI. Earnings (past) look good as well as future earnings. Like outlook in auto relationship. This last quarters surge in auto orders could really shoot up stock price on this next earnings release.
Looking deeper into the economics of the rail industry vs. oil prices. Rail tonnage has increased notably which calls for more car repair or new order demand. (recent conservation press release backs up that statement) Loose bulk shipments and related car orders are way up. Oil prices down, this on the surface would look as a negative for rail oil but not so. (Oil tanker rail is a very small portion of GBX's margin) Even though a lot of Canada sand oil is shipped by rail, the required safety conversion for tanker rail cars will place a unusually high demand on retrofitting or replacement. (Think about it...do you think oil prices will stay this low...they know it will not and they know the future need of the new tankers) This demand, that has to be done, will be used as a filler in scheduling. Margins for rail car co's will be higher due to the efficiency. I looked at the last 3 to 6 months range of rail(tonnage, orders, fuel costs, ..etc) and this next earnings announcement ....I figured...I could be above expectations. If so, due to the high percentage of shorts based on valuation and market cap per float..a very rapid short squeeze could hit on earnings announcement that will be hard to get out of. Buy out of the short position at market value will be a big hit to several shorts.
"Orders since Sept 1st 2014"...over a billion...plus the new orders that take them into 2016 (current press release, these also include 2014 orders according to corp. web page's press release). Earnings looking forward should be real good, last quarter (this one) will probably be real solid. (Small percentage are petroleum cars). Even so, our local gasohol plant had to shut down production for 1 1/2 days because they could not get in any rail cars due to full storage. That alone shows a premium on the need for rail cars. I have to concede, I did not take into account the diversity of the corp's product line on previous assessment..
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Short interest at 30% is a concern. Oil storage is getting to capacity , foreign oil getting cheaper which is bad news for domestic oil(rail) shipment demand. New pipeline will also hurt oil rail shipment/demand. Rail cars orders may decline.
Did analysts over estimate ? Miss coming ? Not take rate hike into account ? Changing dollar ? Foreign goods cheaper... hurts oversea rail sales ? I am being cautious with this one. Will get in at $40....maybe.