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invvestbanker 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 30, 2015 3:13 PM Member since: Sep 20, 2004
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  • Besides it is a years out project. San Sebastian is where the money should go right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I am going to do some research here for a little while. Saw Phil on Bloomberg. Good job.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Looks like the vaunted cap ex spending everyone was soooo enamored about turned out to be a myth. Look, people are using the gas savings to buy more gas, pizza and beer. The cap ex has not arrived, telling us something is not right. I heard the Fed was in Oregon looking for more lumber for the wooden nickel program...har har har.

    We are counting on Baker to show some thrust for the excellent portfolio...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It does not require "armageddon" for gold/silver to construct meaningful gains from these levels, it requires the incoming reality. Debt has become a fictional monetary romance novel, written by worldly authors who have denominated debt money into symbolism of a temporary greater good with unexplained consequence. The Fed spent 4 Trillion with no oversight, debate, or thoughtful reason of exit. In fact, they claim they have no idea how it is going to turn out...well, if you take historical statistics and review them it becomes clear. Taking risks without determinate outcome leads to troubled outcomes. Risk by its very nature is structured more by failure than success.

    Hecla is an outstanding property hedge, backed by competent managers looking to grow the portfolio...or you can believe the Fed is a magical source money tree. Many in the market have come to believe that is the case...time will tell. Thrilled with Hecla on sale at 2.75/share...incredible property for the price of a cup of coffee.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The banks just got permission from the Fed to pay a dividend and buy back stock. Remember, had to get permission from a Fed that just put 4 trillion wooden nickels onto its balance sheet. Look, by almost any objective measure every indicator is flashing that the current situation cannot last. People, the Fed has blinders on - the "money machine" has NO WHERE to go. They inflated the market and the dollar for $10/hr jobs.

    Our economist is saying the oil patch air pocket is real, and people are NOT spending the gasoline savings but Government hacks will I assure you. The money has nowhere to go and the States have severe structural issues...there is an old saying. You cannot ride a dog, but you can surely hunt with one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • invvestbanker invvestbanker Mar 11, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    Earth to financial instrument imbalances the world over. Earth to silver's precious ability in water treatment. Earth to toxic subprime auto. Earth to toxic underfunded State pensions. Earth to a Detroit bankruptcy. Earth to a Japan QE corpse. Earth to anyone of maybe 20 pressure points in the financial systems the world over. Don't laugh, the odds maker we use just made a serious adjustment to the chances of California having a major earth quake.

    Look pal, you may play the simpleton role. But the serious minded know Hecla is a precious bank share up for sale...for cheap when measured against the odds of upside reality. Buy Hecla or wait for the DOW to go to 24, the China reality rises just over the horizon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • We are of the belief that Baker keeps up with the reporting on Kitco. Jim Wycoff just had an excellent article that we could be nearing a "bottom" in the coming months/year. Smart operators, especially nimble outfits can take a shot at more aggressive planning for build outs. San Sebastian and an open pit at Berardi are likely on the drawing board. We thought Baker was overly cautious, then he went out and bought Berardi on a stretch deal? So it is hard to fully understand him at times, but we hope he is willing to move with his most solid players...

    Hecla has excellent property. Two Big shafts, and an EXCELLENT team of experts. We need as big a move on internal build out, the likes of which measure the Lucky Friday shaft extension and the Berardi purchase. Way too many worldly events and financial instrument IMBALANCES to move slowly with your best players.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dollar Looking POWERFUL

    by seasonedspecc Mar 10, 2015 4:39 PM
    invvestbanker invvestbanker Mar 10, 2015 8:57 PM Flag

    That strong dollar just shaved a few point off the S&P earnings picture. 18 trillion in debt plus another 4 trillion sitting on the fed balance sheet, is my math is correct that is 22 trillion. The population is aging, unfunded liabilities are significant if not staggering. Almost 20 states have no way to meet their pension liabilities, with California leading the way. Technically, Illinios is bankrupt with several others not far behind. The oil patch has been a reliable economic contributor, not so anymore. Roads and bridges are crumbling. It should come as no surprise that States have been raising almost every fee and levy possible.

    Uh, the bills are coming due. Safe currency assets like the ones Hecla owns should/will command a premium not a discount. As Japan's QE corpse waits to get buried, as the Russians shoot down another plane, chemical weapons make it into the hands of terrorists, as the next pandemic H7N9/ebola/mers you name arrives, and as the world realizes there is no soft landing in China - their model comes apart once they get to under 6% growth...

    What could possibly go wrong? That would make safe assets more valuable?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Greece is nothing more than an exercise in how to try and handle the situation. Put simply, they are trying to come up with a template to deal with these issues. If the numbers are 12% in reported print, it truly means the number is much, much higher in reality. In Italy, many of these loans that are in default were designed to NEVER be repaid. Which begs the bigger question of corruption at these financial institutions. Heck, Mexico loan profiles are ten time better than those of Italy.

    Safe and burgeoning assets like Hecla should sell for a premium, not a discount...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    No - the jobs report WAS/IS B.S.

    by invvestbanker Mar 9, 2015 7:34 AM
    invvestbanker invvestbanker Mar 9, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    6 years, 4 trillion, and UNEMPLOYMENT at 5.5% supposedly and we are debating a rate hike of a skimpy 1/4 point? The Fed has spent a fortune and what did we get? A debate over a 1/4 rate at 5.5% unemployment. That is the tell - it aint there. This is an upper 15% recovery, and without Europe, the next 45% will never participate. The sad reality is that the stock market is being used to tell people how great everything is. Everything is ok, but it has come at a steep price. Which is reflected in a debate over a skimpy 1/4 point hike after 6 years, 4 trillion fed balance, a mountain of US debt, and a supposed 5.5% unemployment rate.

    The people of society are not feeling it. Everyone is looking over their shoulder. Yeah, there are a bunch of welder, truck driver, advanced computer/robotic machinery jobs that have openings - but everyone else is wanting a better place.

    The rate hike has taken on a life of its own...and that is as dangerous as it gets. Oh by the way, repeat foreclosures rose 12% and people are asking why? 30 year mortgage at 4% and people do not trust home purchases.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • "Leuthold Group LLC, one of the earliest bulls in 2009, has turned skeptical. Doug Ramsey, the chief investment officer, said in January that the number of shares participating in the advance was shrinking and stocks had begun a topping process, with the market heading for a 25 percent to 30 percent drop either this year or next. "

    Look, the bull market was predicated upon Fed easy money creating EPS through job growth, the premium to the bull market was predicated upon Europe hitting it's stride right after the US economy reached escape velocity - all of which was suppose to happen LAST YEAR. Well, guess what? The newest realm of logic from the stock market is that the gasoline "windfall" will recreate what never happened in the first place. Just as Federal Highway along with State Highway departments sharpen their carving knives for that "precious" windfall to fund their dilapidated roads and bridges. Uh, people realize the Government will move quickly to grab that savings through fees and taxes. True to American Political wisdom, that money will be spent 5 times over.

    Just as the Government looks to tax the recent stock market gains something funny will happen to all that capital gains...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Uh, "wage inflation" with 1,000 applicants for each fast food job, 750 applicants for each bartender job, 650 applicants for each mid level managers job...and more people leaving the workforce than entering it? As Europe struggles with a pentulent child in Greece, the China experiment could actually be a toxic potion, and the world is awash in "free money".

    The recent jobs report can be traced backed to the minimum wage hike nonsense. $10 jobs for everyone is what the Government wants, $10 jobs for everyone is what the Government will get. Government assistance programs are out of control.

    Everywhere you look the signs are in bold print. Believing that the safest, of safe haven trades is dead is the folly of stock market participants. The rise in stocks can be directly tied to and correlated from the feds staggering balance sheet...the fed will print a 4 TRILLION DOLLAR COIN? Sane people will buy a bar of gold.

    Hecla has some nice buried treasure. If and only if Baker begins a serious build out of San Sebastian.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Real good high paying jobs are about to hit the skid from the oil patch, which in turn will soften housing prices in some markets, which in turn will have people pulling back on spending. The big "gasoline savings" has been spent 5 times over and will NOT compensate for the more pressing matters. Look no further than the sub prime in auto loans, student loan debt that is about to go unpaid, and the amount of credit card debt people are holding.

    This was not an "escape velocity" employment number it was mid level managers taking a bartending job. By summer time we will look back and realize it is the same low/slow growth that is slowing further. People will come to find out that the last jobs report was nothing more than summer hiring being pulled forward.

    You cannot have an equilibrium imbalance in the oil patch and then tell people the economy is about to explode. This is going to be fun to watch. As people go, uh oh, there is not "rate hike" until 2020...if ever. In fact U.S. companies/U.S. economy WILL NEVER see thrust with Europe absent from the equation and the oil patch in disarray and pushing people to unemployment.

    60 thousand bartenders sank the gold market. It is too good to be real. When in reality 60 thousand bartenders sank the economy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Anyone that thinks the "safe haven" trade is dead, has bought into the thought that a stock market that goes straight up based upon Fed money - is a "safe bet."

    Russian economy has collapsed and Putin is insane, Greece will never pay its bills, the Euro was a bad idea, China's hokus pokus will end in smog and mirrors, and most importantly...Japan is a QE corpse just waiting to be buried - another earth quake should do the job nicely. Just to name a few ideas why "safe haven" is on back burner and far from dead.

    The US economy has NOT reached break out velocity and many believe that is a good thing, the Fed will stay involved. I would rather own Hecla's KNOWN buried treasure, over a promissory note from the Fed which is borrowed from China, Japan, and certain Arab savage society's.

    Like I said a few years ago, I wish Baker and Hecla had a little more gittyup in their tempo. Hopefully San Sebastian is TRULY on the front burner as Baker suggested. Look, we have two big mine shafts and four excellent mine property's. Had to laugh when Eldorado Gold had their permit pulled in Greece - that event was a major tell. Start to accumulate safe mining property.

    Peru, Argentina, Turkey, Greece, Africa Ebola...Hecla is seriously under valued. Do have to tip our hat to Baker for a successful acquisition and running a steady as she goes ship. But that is yesterdays news.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • invvestbanker invvestbanker Feb 10, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    Old rusty barges are being fitted with tanks !!!. One country is ripping their old truck tankers out of the scrap yard and are bolting 10 of them to a barge. You people have no idea what the satellites are picking up. Poor country's and muslim savages are going to pump more even at $30. Oh, by the way, Cuba is looking to open one of the biggest oil finds on earth - after all sanctions have been lifted and they see a resurgence of "importance" i.e. they played Obama to be able to open an oilfield. Oh, by the way, lybia is going to increase production with help from the smarmy French.

    But don't worry, it's only oil right...

    Sentiment: Sell

  • invvestbanker invvestbanker Feb 10, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    Russia has ICBM with nuclear war heads - they know how to make pump/valves so the embargo means little. Black market oil is rising rapidly, the tankers on the sea are topped out. And the Saudi have hammered open the pump. I like Linn, but that 12 billion in debt is about to fell like 16 billion in short order. Black Rock showed up to save their own bacon. And just think about that for ONE MINUTE. The industry is looking to cut production and increase cost matrix, and here comes Black Rock to drill more wells? Sounds stupid when you sit and analyze it. It takes 3 months to bring a well online? It takes 9 months to decrease production.

    China is buying black market, they have oil storage disguised as container ships. Satellites from DOD have them meeting super tankers at sea and filling and heading back to port to pump down...

    Japan's economy is on the verge of collapse. Basically a QE corpse just waiting to be buried. Do you really think any of those savages are our friends? Then think again. Russia will sell what they can pump dude...

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Look, I LIKE Linn and think it is well run to a point but they cannot survive at under $60 a barrel and OPEC knows this. The Saudi have INCREASED production in a very sneaky way, since their plan is for TWO YEARS of $48 oil. Everyone is pumping more as the US attempts to pull back. Yeah, little operators like Sandridge and MPO and hell even Chesapeake will feel the pain first - but their drop in production amounts to NOTHING. Shale and Linn are going to attempt to play the game of chicken, but it won't work, the Saudi are the only ones with a legitimate on/off switch - and they have hammered it open. People do not understand how those arab animals operate. They think vastly different then Westerners - they are a brutal and vicious lot. The Saudi flog people to death on a regular basis, just to show you mind set.

    Linn is heading to $7 a share...

    Sentiment: Sell

  • 8 rigs ain't enough people. By the end of 2015 production will have dropped close to 20%. Man oh man did they spent a ton of money to reduce well costs for 8 FARKING RIGS !!!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • 75% cut in rig count means the smoke has cleared and they are looking into the mirror of bills they cannot pay...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The 12 billion in debt is not going the company, but hey, this is a business. And we have heard that current well production is coming in light. Being the fact Linn may have another distribution cut in 4 months. We have heard it is going to 72 cents yoy...

    Sentiment: Sell

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