Very well said. But I stopped taking them seriously back in December when the near unanimous prediction that our liquids would make the gas much more valuable than other recent deals. Upwards of $2.00/MCF was almost universal. What ever happened to the value of our condensate? Well, Dr. Mike seemed to trade whatever value there was in them for long term payback and left the then long holding longs in the loser seat. Did ANYONE at SHU even remotely predict such outcomes? No, and if they had, they would have been voted off the island. There are some smart people on that sight with knowledge of the industry, but that has not helped them be 180 degrees incorrect about everything IOC over the last 5 yrs. So don't expect that dialog there or here is going to shine all that much light on the future. The only thing in your message that I could quibble with is the statement that this isn't very complicated. Even drilling one well (e.g., Wahoo) seems to be more complicated than IOC experts expected. But all in all, well thought out comments, but when shareholders are unhappy, it is normal and ok for them to quibble a bit. The biggest weakness of SHU has always been the enforcement crew stifling dissent on the important issues.
Mean, why not shut it for a couple of days and do us a favor. Wow, you are a sickening jerk masquerading as someone worth reading.
It is actually pretty sad. My2cows is one of those hopeful longs that my heart goes out to. But unfortunately, facing the truth of the last 5 years is difficult for many longs, not just the pump crowd.
What have you been smoking. When I sold IOC, I bought LNG as one of my stocks. It has been doing nothing but climb higher since, while IOC continues to bleed.
bBonk, you explained that at a post-high school level. Unfortunately, for some of these idiots, it would need to be explained at a 5th grade level for the reality to sink in. I have often suspected meandcody1 of being a high schooler, now I think it's a high schooler with a low gap or a GED aspirant. The level of his discourse seems to fit that. PS: thanks for the explanation.
When I was long,I was never worried by shorts...I was worried about IOC PERFORMANCE as you should be. If they performed as the market expects, shorts would be totally irrelevant. You are losing money daily because your attention is diverted to the "shorts". PS: the only person who posts here who has confirmed he has shorted the stock is bonk, the poster with the best track record of predicting IOC performance by far, of anyone. Think about that as you try to sleep tonight. I will rest easy knowing that I am no longer in this craziness.
If you morons were correct that he was a short, he'd be dancing in the streets happy....NOT disgruntled. But then again, that would take some brain cells on your part. Try to remember this: stock up, shorts grumpy, stock price down, shorts happy.
Wow, you must be a giant A-h...Do you REALLY not understand the pain of a long who might feel trapped, not wanting to sell at such a huge loss, yet being frustrated by it. You cannot be THAT stupid, J-lukwarmaid.
Just finished reading this thread on SHU and a few things became clear:
1) The pump crowd is now trying to position this stock play as a long term investment and that everyone should expect that (despite the fact that few on this and the SHU board got into this stock as anything other than a 1-2 year payback stock.
2) Hession changed that game when he signed the deal with Total instead of Exxon (even though drilling success could have mitigated it) and changed it back toward a medium to long term payback stock.
3) Because the selloff on the Total deal was so huge when we all expected a huge upside after 4 years of waiting, many of you were hesitant to sell at such a loss. Holding then just has caused more pain as the reality of drilling failed to meet the pumper expectations of immediate big payoff from Wahoo.
4) Hession gets credit by pumpers at SHU (similar to here) for things that were set in motion long before he came (e.g., closing the big Total deal) and things that are not visibly positive for the share price (e.g., sale of the downstream assets.
5) Many longs are feeling stuck and frustrated as no one wants to sell at the lows even if there seems to be no immediate relief from this continual bleed to the share price.
6) To not ding Hession's team for execution is to ignore the FACT that they had to abandon the Wahoo well, because they failed there. Should they not have anticipated high pressures there and at the other 2 wells? If this was such a crack management team, they have NOT shown it on the Wahoo execution, nor on the communications. Hession's under promise and over-deliver clearly means promise little and muddle through just like any company in tough drilling country.
To watch from the cheap (no current IOC holdings) gives one some perspective that feels awfully good. I lost a lot of money before exiting IOC, but have avoided the latest 20% drop.
Gerald, I am a little surprised that you interpreted the Puma buy as such a positive sign. I think the jury is still out on whether that was good for IOC or not. Obviously Hession thought it was the right thing to do, so I guess I can respect that, but it certainly has not helped to protect the stock price, and I guess it could be a lesson to us all that tangential issues like spinning off that part of the business is fairly irrelevant compared to exploration success.
Finally a comment from you that makes sense. Of course the key words here are "good drilling news". That kind of statement could reasonably be made of virtually any stock. The big IF. Nectar of the hopefuls. Like hession said: 1 out of 10, right?
I must admit that with the stock closing in on $50, talk of 100-125 on a buyout just seems like crazy talk, but maybe someone has examples of such hopes coming true. When stocks are taking such a dive, do sweetheart offers of double the share price EVER come in?
The only good thing about this slow bleed is that not even the super pumpers are calling these levels "buying opportunities. I guess even they are getting the wind knocked out of them
6 thumbs down for a totally reasonable and thoughtful post. Just shows that most of the people here want to stick their head in the sand. Great way to invest, folks!! Just re-confirms what I have long thought about the reasoning ability of 'longs' on this board,
When you first started posting here, I interpreted your "handle as mean dcody, and I said to myself, he's even proud enough of his demeanor to want to advertise it. Later, I realized that it was supposed to be me and cody. But still the attacking nature of your posts left the first impression anyway, and it has never changed. Just happy I was not stupid enough to stick around for the latest $10 drop in share price. It is almost getting to the point where I am thinking of buying IOC stock again. Regardless, watching from the sidelines allows me to call em like I see em. And yes, you have proven time and again that you are, indeed a jerk. Feels good to say it, I must say. If saying that makes me a jerk too, so be it. Stop attacking others personally, and start talking instead about IOC issues, and I will stop calling you a jerk.