Feels to me like we are talking semantics a bit. Maybe there is a formal definition of bidding war that I am not aware of. But even if one might not consider it "evidence", seems to me that there has been both publicly expressed interest from multiple bidders as will as company statements to the effect that they turned into bids. By definition, we would then be in a competitive bid situation. Whether there is a continuing open bidding process, certainly seems open to question.
Eric, I confess that in the early days, I found your writing style to be a bit irritating, especially since I often disagreed on IOC, but hey, I'm sure at least some others find my writing style irritating also. But from what I have learned over the years, you typically try to be respectful and stick with issues. I don't really care about "promises" to leave the board and am not concerned about the specifics of that (i.e., whether you just changed your mind or there was wiggle room in the original "promise". Who cares; this is just a message board and I do not believe for a minute that it significantly affects pps. Further, I will confess that I have not gone over to SHU to see the post from which you quote. But from what I read here, I have to believe that Bertl is under some tremendous stress. If I am not mistaken, he is one and the same as our Andrewip from the pre-shu migration and he always seemed quite balanced. Regardless, what I see here seems to me also as being uncalled for. I would like to believe that we can have opposing interests and opinions without raking each other over the coals. I guess I have been quite blunt myself at times, but usually when attacked first.
I do honestly have significant respect for the way you have responded to attacks. No matter what others may feel emotionally about your opposition to our stock position, you are entitled to your opinions, as we are ours.
PS: If you were, in fact the same poster as bonk, I would need to label you as absolutely brilliant or a split personality, because I feel like I am usually pretty good at picking up multiple id people (e.g., writing style; implied thinking style) and I just don't see it. Regardless, I appreciate that your critiques of others never comes across to me as nasty. Bertl seems quite angry... I myself wonder what is going on.
I am not sure where you get that "Tree's not usually one to talk up inside info", as he is the king of the pumpers, with his brothers palm and kenny, but hey good rumors are better than bad....
We are 100% justified in expecting IOC to give some reassuring communication about where we are. It is highly unlikely the confidentiality agreement allows NO communication about the status of negotiations, and IOC shareholders have been more than patient over the last 3 and 1/2 years. We deserve some news of where we are.
That said, there seems to be some seem to be slight panic on the part of some IOC investors. Even if bonk and eric are right that there is a message in the market about leaks saying the bidding is not the all out war that some on SHU (like Kenny) are suggesting, it is not saying that we are likely to lose money on the deal either. Best info we had was that the deal was waiting on the government of PNG anyway, so I am not sure that the delays mean squat about the bidding. The pps is not trending well, but that is to be expected with the delays.
Few longs have been more critical of IOC over the years, and I do blame them for losing me money by wasting opportunity costs as the rest of the market has done well over these 3 years by comparison with IOC being only slightly above where I bought my shares. Nevertheless, I have lost significant money before by listening to short's pronouncements of doom right before the big payoff. Not this time. I am in it at least until we hear something threatening from O'Neill or that idiot Phil (but both are less likely than ever).
I would agree with most of what you say, except that it was pretty clear that none other than Phil himself tipped the upward trend above 83 when he opened his trap in that interview and basically told everyone not to expect an immanent deal. Again, we have him to thank for the reversal and stagnation. That said, clearly it does not help that the deal seems long, long overdue and the stagnation is understandable every day we do not get an actual deal announcement.
I see him as a pain in the a.., just like the bashers, that's all. (they are easier to put on ignore). As to my opinion being worthless on anything, that may be true, but no more so than yours or anyone's. They are all just opinions. And one of mine was that your posts are sometimes interesting. I guess that one is worthless too.
Everyone who does not agree with your apologist, IOC is perfect views, is immediately suspect. Lose the paranoia, and you will stay healthier
I'm with you 100%. But Tree or no Tree, Phil is now no longer a significant issue as long as he keeps his trap shut so he can't hurt the stock price. Tree will continue to try to dominate the conversation at SU anyway, because that is what he does. Comes with the territory over there like bashers here.
They do care what the hedge funds say, basher #$%$.....
"In preparation for this year, a total of 13 of the hedge funds we track were long in this stock, a change of 8% from the third quarter. With the smart money's sentiment swirling, there exists a select group of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were increasing their holdings meaningfully.
Of the funds we track, Charles Clough's Clough Capital Partners had the most valuable position in InterOil Corporation (USA) (NYSE:IOC), worth close to $17.7 million, comprising 0.6% of its total 13F portfolio. Sitting at the No. 2 spot is Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies, with a $16 million position; the fund has less than 0.1%% of its 13F portfolio invested in the stock. Other peers that hold long positions include Nick Niell's Arrowgrass Capital Partners, and Israel Englander's Millennium Management.
With a general bullishness amongst the heavyweights, specific money managers have been driving this bullishness. Renaissance Technologies, managed by Jim Simons, established the most valuable position in InterOil Corporation (USA) (NYSE:IOC). Renaissance Technologies had 16 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Nick Niell's Arrowgrass Capital Partners also made a $14.4 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with new positions in the stock are SAC Subsidiary's CR Intrinsic Investors and Martin Hughes's Toscafund Asset Management."
Heck, I'll go out on a limb. We are 77.33 now. I say we go higher by the end of the day (not confident, but some guesses will make the day more interesting. See below for more good news:
"Oil futures leapt Thursday, aiming for their first gain in three sessions, as a fall in U.S. jobless claims and a rate cut by the European Central Bank offered rays of hope for energy demand."
It is as frustrating to me as to anyone that we can't seem to go above 80 without an actual deal announcement, but hey, it could be a lot worse. I take take the fact that we have not dropped to the lower 70's (which seemed like a ceiling for so long), despite the shorts continuing to pile on, is a significant positive sign. Sign of what you might ask? Sign that the market is increasingly certain that an accretive deal is coming. It's a slow painful wait, but I have never been more optimistic than now.
the emergence of BOTH the platts and Bloomberg articles and languishing price should show you, squeezefinder, just how difficult it is to have a real short squeeze with this stock. Not saying it won't happen with the deal news, but until then, the shorts seem to be determined. I am amazed we have not gone higher, just on the greater exposure Bloomberg should have gotten us.
As long as they don't say anything of the order of "the string is getting very short and we will have a decision soon/immanently", I'll be relieved. The time for vagueness is over. I agree with HT, the pressure will be on to say something more substantive. Of course, if the decision is still in the hands of PNG at that point, they cannot necessarily be very specific. So I think the stock will take a steady upward move as leaks appear in the gov't, but that the last day will be a big short fight to drop the stock to allow covering. So maybe down a percent or two on that day to be followed the day of the cc by movement that depends on what is said.
Yea, I think tree is having his "period" right now. No doubt brought on by the downfall of his buddy Phil. I am happy as a clam because soon Phil's snack hole (love bonks term for Philspeak) is likely to be muzzled for good, a benefit for the pps.
HT, it has always been a safe bet to take ones latest guess and add substantial time to it. IOC seems to move like molasses. So best bet is it might even be longer than your date. But I keep hoping (for over 3 years as it turns out), for IOC to make ONE announcement on time or (as in this case) in a reasonable proximity to expectations. Note few (even pumpers) believed it would take this long. If as many believe, it is in O'Neill's hands, the date would be independent of the cc.
OK...how long does a CEO search/selection normally take after interviews start? Personally, I don't like them feeling they would need to wait on a deal until after the new guy is announced, if that is what Phil was saying. Last, I certainly don't like Phil opening his pie hole again. It is not like he is helping anyone, and the possibility that we might never hear him ruin our PR is 1/2 the reason I was happy he was riding into the sunset. The other 1/2 was of course the likely affect on deal closure/price.
Not confident that news will be out soon, but you deserve a thumbs up for the reminder and the optimism. Hope you are right.
Ah, there it is...on SHU by tree:
"InterOil adopted both the original rights plan and the New Rights Plan to ensure, to the extent possible: (i) that all shareholders are treated fairly in connection with any takeover offer for the Company"
Did you read that..."takeover"
Take that to bed and sleep uneasily, shorts!!!!
I am surprised I don't see more analysis of this on this shareholder rights plan on this board. The timing has to be relevant to the deal. I have neither the time nor the expertise, but this and its timing means something very very big IMHO.