It appears that his analysis is so shallow that he is just looking at the yahoo distribution rate. also motley fool seems to make the same mistake in an RNF article that mentions UAN. this is kind of scary and makes one wonder if the average analyist has a clue as you say. UAN's input costs are hedged, AG is predicting the biggest corn planting since 1936. Since corn takes a pound of nitrogen per bushel most farmers in Iowa are dumping up to 200 lb to the acre. I do not look for nitrogen prices to come down. UAN has projected 2.15-2.45 distribution. assume a $2 dist and investor interest level of 8%. This fixes the stock price at about $25 give or take depending on normal market fluxuation. Barring a hugh market selloff, and this could happen,For income investors I think that anything under $25 is a reasonable low risk buy here.
projection is for heavier rain for 3 days now, the frost is out in most areas exposed to the sun so it will soak in, great news we need about a foot more to get back toward normal.
cvi,cvrr and UAN form a rather interesting triad of stocks that look like a killer investment. uan and cvrr are the LPs and cvi is the parent. Carl Ichan is a big player. AG and Energy looks like a winner to me. if you like the variable LPs also look at nti, aldw and clmt
I look for a low of about 32 or an 8% return. If emotion takes hold it could overshoot down to the high twenties. Also if the UBTI post is correct it will scare away some IRA holders but the individual UBTI is based on a bunch of variables so is not asbig a factor as the distribution rate.
this company great about expanding revenues but not earnings, i guess i will stick around for one more quarter
cvrr has the potential to pay a hugh div 10-20% but it is variable if you dig a little deeper they just paid one.
see my replys above old man still trying to get used to the new yahoo thread format. CVRR looks like a big div if you can stand the variability and risk
sorry looked this up and i had them confused with ALDW or NTI this whole sector along with oldie CLMT has the potential for big div especially the new three, they are small however and subject to periodic shut down and variable div from quarter to quarter.
the whole sector is down see CVRR,NTI and ALDW. I do not see any news but I am wondering if it a big jump in renewable fuel credits---in this green crazy enviornment we are in that is probably one of the biggest risks to earnings given relatively stable supply and demand of oil. its the govt again screwing with the free market.
If you mean they break even at 3.25 with a 200 bushel to the acre yield I agree in general. For a more comprensive look at costs go to the Iowa State University Extension website and look up projected costs for corn on corn, corn after beans etc. Because the land costs and resulting cash rent has gotten so crazy corn input costs are now typically in excess of $$600-$800 an acre, there are many various variables to this number depending on the individuals situtation. For young farmer with no land it can easily be the $800. For an established farmer who owns with no debt it could be lower than $600.
never got an IR response. Given the news one possibility is to retire (call) the A's and replace them with them with the new B's,. It could also be a couple of big sellers in a thin market but that should not hold it down for long. Another possibility is for a new buyer the A's were returning about 8%, perhaps it is worth a half percent to gain 9 years of a surer thing. I am about breakeven at todays price but have collected interest for a good long time so my average return in a call is about 7% and slowly increases the longer they wait to call.
thanks for the post on filing, i will let you smart guys do the math but i suspect the value of A above 25 is the interest due give or take market fluxuations which should be small so it is a zero sum game until until the conversion. With the exception of MLP's it is getting harder and harder to get an 8% return. On MLP's one of my fears is that the govt will pull the Canada trick and eliminate them like Canada did the trusts.
as usual it takes both sides to make a market, while the fundamentals are pesky and mixed the technicals at this point at least look the other way, while people are still eating this wholepaycheck stuff and it is a growth story and it is a growth story in the early stages and the printing goes on we have what could be a giant up pennant building.