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Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

ironjinman 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 12, 2014 2:11 AM Member since: Jan 29, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Thoughts? Comments? Suggestions?

    by ironjinman Dec 11, 2014 1:10 AM
    ironjinman ironjinman Dec 12, 2014 2:11 AM Flag

    They did 2 different cases in the pre feasibility study.. a 55,000 ton per day and an alternate 33,000TPD case. The 55k would cost over a billion CAPEX and the 33k is 761M. This info is on page 17 on their corporate presentation on their website. Also note this cases presented here assume a 1450 gold price. Long way to go to get there.

    Other info in this presentation is outdated or misleading on page 7. As far as how well funded they are at least.. They likely wont get the remaining payment from Invecture as they have recently announced. Also they have lowered the sale price of that mill equipment and there continues to be no buyers. It's been up for sale for years. They really only have Midas shares to sell to raise cash.. That's it. Which is unfortunate as it is their best bargaining chip other than Mt. Todd. So unless gold hits up near 1500 within the next year, Vista is in serious trouble. Hate to say it, been here a long time. I really think they need to sell the company or start praying.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • So, as a shareholder, it is becoming increasingly grim for Vista. With the likely return of the mine from Invecture and basically no chance anyone buys the mill equipment....What's left? They are gonna have to sell all the remaining Midas shares in February when the lockup expires just to stay alive. That pretty much takes all of VGZs chips off he table with the exception of MT Todd. Unless gold rebounds huge and soon, VGZ will continue bleeding all its assets until they have nothing valuable. I really think the only way they can unlock any shareholder value at this point is to sell the company. I'm sure a big player would love to have Mt Todd in their portfolio. The mine will be a beast someday. It's hard to value Mt. Todd in the current gold environment, but it has to be worth significantly more than the current market cap to somebody out there. I just don't see this playing out any other way. Think about it, even if Gold rebounds to the 1500 area and they get a 50% partner, they will still have to raise 500 million to fund their half of the construction. Even at $1 per share, that would be a 500% dilution to current shareholders.. There just doesn't seem to be any other way, except to sell. Even in the event of a big gold rebound, the odds are not good for current holders.

    Thoughts? Comments? Suggestions?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Is it possible to have a civil discussion

    by baileysix Dec 10, 2014 12:31 AM
    ironjinman ironjinman Dec 11, 2014 12:16 AM Flag

    Well, I'll chime in here and tell you why I tripled down in the last month from my pre CRL average. I think I'm done averaging down now. My average is still a good ride from the current price, as I had a large position. Given the new trial is at about 2/3 of the dose, I just can't imagine the results not at least being in line with the previous trials. I think Pro will again show non inferiority. Given what the share price did the last time around and assuming a 30% dilution, I still think he price can easily get to $1.50 with expected results. At this price I can still make a nice chunk of change. If it gets nowhere near there, I will at least be able to to rescue all the funds I sunk into it originally. I can wait another 7-9 months for that. That's my plan. If we get the results I anticipate, I don't think I'll be risking much on my friends at the FDA this time around.. Maybe if I have profit, I'll risk that. I'd just be thrilled to get my original investment back and at this price, I feel it's as de-risked as it will get.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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