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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

isaac_dji 289 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2015 11:30 AM Member since: Feb 19, 2003
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  • BIG DVAX NEWS coming in the VERY NEAR FUTURE !!!.

    Surprise? Surely, you did not expect Cowen and other underwriters to commit to a $27.50 selling price for over 5 million shares without some GOOD NEWS that will clearly drive DVAX up nicely, did you?

    IN FACT, it appears from the trade volumes so far that COWEN INTENDS TO KEEP SOME OF THE SHARES FOR ITSELF (or for its important customers). This says much about what Cowen expects.

    Naturally, we should all expect several announcements regarding the initiation of SD-101 trials.

    In addition, DVAX may release some preliminary indications about the SUCCESS of the Heplisav trial shortly after it ends in mid-OCT, but well before releasing the official results in DEC.

    HAND ON !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 23, 2015 5:49 PM Flag

    The current very large trial (8,250 subjects) of Heplisav, which is now ending, required a lot of cash but that is now nearly over (in flying colors). So with about $250 million in CASH, DVAX is nicely set for the FIVE SD-101 TRIALS (two of which are financed by the NIH) that will be ongoing by the end of this year. So the cash consumption will go down significantly.

    And as Michael Ostrach (CFO) said, the SD-101 effect on DVAX WILL BE TRANSFORMATIVE. For as most shareholders know, the combination of SD-101 and a PD-1 inhibitor achieved 100% survival and 100% complete response rate in preclinical trials in melanoma (the PD-1 inhibitor alone achieved only 20% survival).

    Looking forward to the announcement of the trial of SD-101 in co-therapy with Keytruda (MRK's PD-1 inhibitor).

    HANG ON !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • From Thomson/First Call as listed in Yahoo Finance:

    Analyst Opinion Get Analyst Opinion for: DVAX

    Recommendation Summary*
    Mean Recommendation (this week): 1.8
    Mean Recommendation (last week): 1.8
    Change: 0.0

    * (Strong Buy) 1.0 - 5.0 (Sell)

    PRICE TARGET SUMMARY

    Mean Target: 43.25
    Median Target: 39.00
    High Target: 60.00
    Low Target: 35.00
    No. of Brokers: 4

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 22, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Look for MORE HIGH VOLUME days to come since the underwriters will likely sell a total of 5.25 million shares (with the over-allotment) and today/s trading volume was only about 3.2 million shares.

    Keep in mind that the underwriters have the incentive to sell DVAX shares at prices that are higher than the announced SPO price of $27.50 per share (more profit to the underwriters).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    COME ON 2934 Daddy needs a new pair of shoes

    by dvaxtruth Jul 22, 2015 2:26 PM
    isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 22, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    The new pair of shoes that daddy needs must be made of solid gold studded with large diamonds (LOL). And THAT's coming.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 22, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    The shorts and bears have been waiting for DVAX's public offering. They had hoped that the inevitable offering would take DVAX down. Now, THEIR LAST CHANCE TO COVER (at the current low prices), which are still much higher than the shorts' sale prices) IS ABOUT TO DISAPPEAR and they would, in all likelihood have to cover at much higher prices yet.

    Today DVAX is REBORN and this public offering should be viewed as an IPO FOR A COMPANY WITH A HUGE FUTURE where much of it is already assured.

    And the $260 million in CASH position should be enough to finance the launch of Heplisav as well as take SD-101 through its highly promising clinical trials.

    MUCH MORE TO COME FROM DVAX.

    HANG ON !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 22, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    IT'S A GRAT IPO (kind of) FOR A NEW DVAX WITH OUTSTANDING FUTURE and OVER $260 MILLION IN CASH !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 22, 2015 9:26 AM Flag

    First, if the shorts cover, it will be at a much higher price than the price at which they sold. However, I do not think that most of the shorts will cover (we will know in a few weeks). Instead, we will see the short interest decline somewhat as INSTITUTIONS (many new buyers) GOBBLE UP THE OFFERING while many shorts may choose to wait (a grave mistake).

    In fact, it appears that Cowen has already lined up the BUYERS of the offering.

    HANG ON !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 22, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    What the bears don't comprehend is that DVAX's public offering is LIKE AN IPO but with MUCH BETTER FUTURE than most IPOs. And at the same time, DVAX received $144 million in CASH that will increase its CASH POSITION TO OVER $260 MILLION (!!!).

    Much more to come from DVAX.

    HANG ON !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 22, 2015 9:08 AM Flag

    Dilution Shmilution -- DVAX gets $144 million in CASH, which will raise DVAX's CURRENT CASH POSITION to about $260 MILLION (!!!). This is a very strong position going forward while establishing a BASE PRICE OF $27.50, from which DVAX can rise to NEW HIGHS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • DVAX's public offering of stock will bring in about $125 million in cash by selling 4.55 million shares at $27.50. Additional 682,000 shares (15% add on) will likely be sold as the underwriters' option.

    THE TOTAL CASH to DVAX will therefore be about $144 million, which should enough for a long while -- certainly until after the commercial launch of Heplisav..

    The total offering of 5.23 million shares is a clear opportunity for institutions to BUY into the GREAT DVAX FUTURE. And they will undoubtedly do so. It's also an opportunity for shorts and ex-owners to buy shares -- albeit at higher prices than the ones at which they sold.

    Although it seems that the public offering will add liquidity to the stock, it's very likely that institutions will gobble up nearly all of the new shares and take them out of circulation.

    HANG ON !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MORE on the CLEAR PATH TO HEPLISAV APPROVAL !!!

    by isaac_dji Jul 14, 2015 3:22 PM
    isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 21, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    A common hedge fund ploy to have shareholders sell their shares is to create a downtrend in the stock right after a recent rise. This ploy often fools some shareholders to take profit. Most of the fooled shareholders never make it back to the stock, and end up watching future rises from the sidelines.

    Again, in my view, given the unquestionably huge future of DVAX, all DVAX traders and bears should own DVAX shares that are safe from trading temptations.

    DVAX investors should simply evaluate the likelihood of success of the current trial, and then look at the performance of DVAX before the meeting of the FDA Advisory Committee (notwithstanding the high uncertainty then).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MORE on the CLEAR PATH TO HEPLISAV APPROVAL !!!

    by isaac_dji Jul 14, 2015 3:22 PM
    isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 20, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    The bears still don't get it.

    TEN MONTHS HAVE NOW PASSED FROM THE TIME OF THE VACCINATION (initial) OF THE LAST HEPLISAV SUBJECT. In addition, about 3,000 subjects have already completed the trial. And SO FAR SO GOOD -- no report of an SAE that could have affected the price of DVAX (and therefore would have had to be reported).

    Combine that with statements made by DVAX's CEO and CFO. First, Eddie Gray said that HEPLISAV IS INHERENTLY SAFER THAN OTHER VACCINES. Then Michael Ostrach more recently said that THE PATH TO HEPLISAV APPROVAL IS CLEAR (from obstacles). So we have TWO STRONG CLEARLY STATED INDICATIONS THAT THE CURRENT LARGE SAFETY TRIAL IS A SUCCESS COMBINED WITH THREE GREAT DSMB REPORTS, NO NEGATIVE INDICATIONS WHATSOEVER ABOUT THE TRIAL, AND THE FACT THAT THE TRIAL IS NEAR ITS END (so close to completion that the DSMB is no longer needed).

    Given all these facts and indications, THE SKEPTICS AND BEARS WOULD BE FOOLS TO IGNORE THEM. After all, the TOTALITY OF THE EVIDENCE OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORTS A SUCCESS IN THE TRIAL and there has not been any negative indication at all. In fact, if such evidence were presented in a trial where the bears were the defendants, they would have surely been convicted because THERE IS NO REASONABLE DOUBT ABOUT THE TRIAL's SUCCESS.

    Again, keep in mind that DVAX was trading above $40 just before the meeting of the FDA Advisory Committee, when there was much uncertainty. Since then, the Advisory Committee approved Heplisav's efficacy (by a vote of 13-to-1), and now all facts and indications CLEARLY say that the LARGE SAFETY TRIAL IS A SUCCESS. In other words, there is NO LONGER ANY REASONABLE UNCERTAINTY about the SUCCESS of the trial. So shortly after OCT, when the trial ends, LOOK FOR DVAX TO RISE TO WELL ABOVE $40, which corresponds to about 50% rise from today's prices.

    HANG ON !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    On the UPCOMING SHORT-COVERING in DVAX !!!

    by isaac_dji Jul 17, 2015 5:59 PM
    isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 20, 2015 9:16 AM Flag

    LOOK FOR DVAX to provide some PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS for THE (expected) SHARP SUCCESS OF THE CURRENT SAFETY TRIAL shortly after the end of the trial and well before it releases the trial results (to be released in late DEC or early JAN).

    THE INDICATIONS will likely appear in DVAX presentations right after the trial ends (OCT).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    On the UPCOMING SHORT-COVERING in DVAX !!!

    by isaac_dji Jul 17, 2015 5:59 PM
    isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 17, 2015 6:08 PM Flag

    DVAX shareholders should keep in mind the following TWO STATEMENTS made by Michael Ostrach:

    1. The PATH TO HEPLISAV APPROVAL IS CLEAR (of obstacles).

    2. SD-101 success will have a TRANSFORMATIVE EFFECT on DVAX.

    Good things come to those who wait (not the shorts of course), and GOOD THINGS are always worth waiting for.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Here is THE UNDERLYING FACT about the short interest in DVAX:

    While the short interest in DVAX is currently (6/30) at 5.9 million shares, which is MORE THAN DOUBLE what it was on 10/31/14 (2.6 million shares), the stock price today ($28.78) is 75% HIGHER THAN ITS PRICE ON 10/31/14 ($16.4).

    There is no doubt that the sale of short shares had a negative effect on the price of DVAX. But some SHORT COVERING after the FINAL DSMB is likely a factor in the recent rise in DVAX. With the excellent FINAL DSMB report, the shorts' last hope has completely evaporated.

    However, much more short covering is expected to take place between now and mid OCT when the Heplisav trial ends, and shortly thereafter, when DVAX releases SOME PRELIMINARY INFO ON THE HUGE SUCCESS OF THE TRIAL (listen to presentations). EVEN MORE SHORT COVERING will undoubtedly take place after DVAX releases the full results of the trial before the yearend.

    Meanwhile, according to DVAX, FIVE SD-101 CLINICAL TRIALS WILL BE ONGOING by the end of this year. Given the huge success of SD-101 in preclinical studies (100% survival and 100% complete remissions in melanoma), each clinical trial announcement should be expected to cause additional short covering.

    But in addition to short covering, successful Heplisav trial results will undoubtedly INCREASE INTEREST FROM WALL ST. The combination of increased investment rate and short-covering is how stocks of successful biotech companies have historically RISEN SHARPLY.

    HANG ON !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • According to Yahoo's key statistics for SAN, its market cap is about $100 billion while its enterprise value is $211 billion ($15.44 per share). In comparison, for example, WFC's market cap is $298 billion while its enterprise value is just $174 billion. Another large-bank example is BAC with a market cap of $190 billion and enterprise value of $194 billion. This indicates that SAN is significantly undervalued by the market -- probably because of the recent dividend reduction.

    However, while SAN's dividend rate is 3.3%, WFC's is 2.7% and BAC's is just 1.2%.

    The point is that the current price anomaly of SAN should be expected to be corrected based on its robust enterprise value -- at least according to the efficient market theorem.

    BTW, just as Ana Patricia Botín suddenly decided to lower the dividend rate to about 3.3%, which caused a drop in the stock price, she can easily raise the dividend rate to some intermediate level. For example, an announcement of raising the dividend rate to about 4.5%, would in all likelihood raise the stock price to well above $8.

    Certainly, based on the current PE of 13.54, which corresponds to a net earnings rate of 7.4%, a dividend rate of 4.5% is very sustainable.

    Given that Ana Patricia Botín was college-educated in the U.S. and then worked for EIGHT YEARS at JP Morgan, a raising of the dividend rate is quite likely.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 17, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    The Greece debt crisis is essentially over for now. But in 3 years, when the bailout debt becomes due, Greece may face the same problems again.

    The likely solution is debt restructuring so that it would be paid in 30 years -- as the IMF has recommended. This way there is wiggle room for the Greek economy by reducing the heavy debt burden on it ans allowing the economy to recover at an orderly fashion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Hedge funds that want to BUY DVAX shares before OCT (trial end) are likely the cause of volume churning in recent days. The objective is to show a high recent-average volume, which corresponds to fewer days-to-cover. A drop in the days-to-cover invites new short-selling of DVAX shares (if the shorts are fooled) that the hedge funds can then buy without a significant price penalty.

  • Reply to

    MORE on the CLEAR PATH TO HEPLISAV APPROVAL !!!

    by isaac_dji Jul 14, 2015 3:22 PM
    isaac_dji isaac_dji Jul 15, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    "THE PATH TO HEPLISAV APPROVAL IS NOW CLEAR (without any obstacles or negative events)."

    This clearly tells us where the DVAX stock price is headed since it was trading above $40 just before the meeting of the FDA Advisory Committee, when there was much uncertainty about Heplisav's approval.

    As a result, Look for DVAX to cross $40 by late OCT, 2015.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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