Will the fact that AAL could report a 217% earnings per share gain for the 1st quarter satisfy shareholders. That is the percentage gain if it equals concensus.It ist ime to think in absolute terms rather han relative.
With the S&P entry and the subsequent sell-off with the sudden rise in oil prices,a substiantial number of traders and weak longs have exited AALNote todays price rise on light volume in response to oil's decline.Should oil return to the $45 level ,I expect new highs..
Just prior to the bell on Friday, AAL had traded approximately 30 million shares. Final volume was 137 million shares. This would indicate has at least 100 million shares were purchased by index funds and S&P related ETF's. This means that over 14 5 of AAL's 696 million shares have been removed from the market. Prior to Friday 551 institutions and fund owned 61% of shares outstanding .Delta had 703 holders accounting for 87% of shares outstanding.
The lockup of nearly 15% of the shares outstanding plus the effects of the company buy=back augers well for AAL,s future price performance.
Index fund buying will be done at the closing bell on Friday,the 20th.I expect a close near $57,which will coinside with a new high break-outon Mondat the longs will be the proud owners of the lowest PE in the S&P 500.
Isaw that 78.8 million shares will be taken up by index funds.Since the annoment a total of 75.9 million shares have traded up until 2:30 pm today.If every single share were puchased by dealers to supply the index funds., the total is stinot sufficient. This is under the assumption that not a single share was purchased by the longs and the shorts.As a result I would expect fireworks by tomorrows close with a r good bump.If i had to picka number I would pick $57.
According to Parker'. current oil rices wold result in $4.5 billion in saving or $6.52 per share. Adding that to 2014 earnings of $$3.93 equals $10.45 higher tham current concencus estimates. Thiis implies that the estimatrs make absolutely no allowance for growth or for effiencies as a reslt of the mergerSuggests that one should expect further estimate increases
Not only is oil down but it will stay down for a considerable time. Suggest you Google Fracklog.
Based upon my 50 plus years of investment experience (40 of those as an investment professional )together with my great track record of seasonal weather forecasing. I confidentlly predict substiant improvent in both the weather and AAL's stock price from this point forward.With $10.60 in projected 2015 earings and the possibility that AAL will start a hedge programme should oil spike lower, it is not illogical to expect a $70-80 stock price by late fall.
I believe that you and I are the only ones that are long both AAL and CSIQ. I own 5K of each and am up substantially. as a result.Targets of both are well above current levels.
The rule of thumb suggests that a stock which achieves a 50% retracement ,which CSIQ has,the odds strongly favour that stock continues to rise to the former high
Cash totals $1.02 billion or $18.58 per share based on 54.9 million shares.On the valid assumrtion that cash earns very little if one was to back out the cash from the $32.25 current price the residual $13.67 would present a PE of 3.3 earnings. Conversely, if the cash was used to acguire solar assets at a PE of 10 times earnings,it would add $1.89 to earnings for a total of $6.00 giving a PE of 5.3 earnings.Cheap both ways as it assumes zero growth in 2015.