Only remote hope for this company is for the BOD to remove this snake oil salesman. But they won't.
Selling 1/3 of the shares acquired for free is exactly what they did. And it's what 90% of people who exercise zero cost options do. The 30% pays their taxes on the ordinary income they have to recognize on exercise.
I don't think dtrade4 is of this planet, much less an insider. Seems to live in some fantasy world.
It's a fact that there was a lot of buying of $25's today, but at 50 cents or so. If I were long I'd be tempted to double down, but I'm still holding short and can't recommended buying. I'm certain others will disagree.
As a practical matter, you're already out a dollar, and if you can afford to lose the next 50 cents sit tight. Nothing has changed since you bot except the price. You've 50 cents at risk and a month to recover. A contract win will presumably get your dollar back.
Today was dreadful for longs throughout the tech market.
That'd be fair, I'm spending some of your money as we speak. Just lay off the misleading rumors. Some here may actually believe you and jump in long. Those that have already must be scratching their heads.
Don't you ever tire of embarrassing yourself? The shorts always line up to get crushed when they know an acquisition is coming.
I'd like to go positive and maybe will if someone can offer a logical reason why this 30+% short interest exists. Trailing PE is mid high 20's. Don't have to speculate on that, but forward is always #$%$ shoot.
Relatively speaking this is a mid sized company with heavy institutional ownership. What could attract this heavy short interest? There are lots better candidates out there.
I'm staying with where there's smoke there's fire position until a reasonable explanation surfaces. But I'm all ears!
Absolutely agree. If whatever's in the works hasn't happened by next earnings release that CC will be telling.
I'm 80% sure now that one of their major accounts is leaving. And I forgot which it is, but they constitute 20% of vasco's revenues and they're on a 60 or 90 day notice contract. If they lose 20% of their top line the majority of that amt will fall to the bottom and all hell will break loose. Look at SONs yesterday. And you know that if this is the case there are lots of folks with prior knowledge.
Unfortunately, we are not in the loop.
Good idea to leave early and come late especially when you see waht's going on with the trading.
Thanks, and do you agree that the trading pattern since the CC has been very weird?
To me there's no reason for this big short other than some info that hasn't come to light yet. Stock is pricey, but nothing to justify 8 million shares short and the constant heavy selling into any upward movement.
I'm all ears for other opinions
Announced some time ago I had a small short position. But prior to that made great money long, but wasn't smart enough to get out near the highs.
Just reporting what I see although this past hour there have been some good sized buys.
A strategy I'm looking at now is a straddle. I think the direction is down, but can't be sure. I'm more convinced it'll move to the teens or $30 pretty soon so play both ends if you can get the right pricing. So far, no luck with the right price.
And shorts aren't evil, they're just the reverse side of longs. You have to be flexible to prosper.
Be patient. And in the meantime watch the trading for a 1/2 hour or so. What I see going on is the MMs taking in larger block sales at lower prices and selling them off in small pieces presumably to the retail market. That's why you're seeing these relatively slow upward moves to the retail buyers ending with a sudden big drop on a large sell.
8 million shorts have a reason for being
You can't compare these two on current PE's. CYBR's guiding to 30% top line growth this year, gets 35%+ of the top to the bottom line based on much better margins than Vasco. They are different animals.
If you project that 30+% growth with 80% getting to the bottom line CYBR's forward PE drops like a rock.
Answer to this one is simple. Since the CC, with a few minor exceptions, small lots get the price moving upward and then someone steps in with a big sell that takes it back down.
The important questions are why and who knows what that isn't public yet. The short position continues to grow and by any normal measure is outrageously high. Way too high for basically a no name entity. Looks more and more like VDSI will soon be dropping a bomb on its stockholders. There's no other viable explanation. This situation isn't an accident.
Could have something to do with his yummy compensation package. Million or two in cash and a million free shares of stock to date. Works out to about $5 mil a year plus perks. You expect him to leave?
This presupposes that they didn't know about these events closing at the time of the CC. While none of us peons know what's in or out of that 2015 guidance, you can bet there are institutional guys who know, and of course, the insiders. Those shorts aren't loading up for the hell of it. They can read. Vasco is scary here, be wary.
Feel foolish having posted yesterday that the big block trading had finally balanced out. Today, the larger blocks are almost exclusively sells. Whoever said they question if this is simply shorts seems to have it right. Clearly there's something going on behind the scenes that we are not privy to. Clear message to get out of the way until those who know make it public.
While up the past 3 or 4 days the gains have been gradual. And for those who don't follow the trades whats been going on the past 3 or 4 days is in days 1 and 2 the big block trades were still mostly sells in spite of the price gaining. The past day or 2 there was some leveling out and today the larger trades are moving more to the buy side. Maybe the big shorts are losing conviction.
Whatever the case i don't think I've seen many more measured, gradual short squeezes.
Having run the numbers recently the better choice at this point is CYBR. Never thought I'd say that, but their growth pattern and margins say it's a better buy than VDSI at this point. Of course, CYBR is a baby and their growth remains to be seen, but VDSI appears to be planted in this forward 20's PE range ( upper or lower depending how you're projecting). If either disappoints it's a bloodbath, but CYBR clearly has the better momentum IMO. CYBR can knock their PE down quickly, VDSI can't, or at least tell us they are not.
More importantly, the trading and valuations rather support this. VDSI announcing that win yesterday and getting something of a "so what?" seems to have confirmed their fate. CYBR was up similar percentage with no good news.
VDSI guides to 10% growth and the stock comes down 30+% and attracts 8 mil new short shares. They "surprise" with a big contract and the stock recovers 7%. How committed are these shorts, who are they. and what do they know? CYBR announces nothing and they're up 3%+
Maybe they included this win in their 10% guidance, but couldn't name the bank. Only logical conclusion.
Such is the problem with heavy pro ownership. They seemingly tend to have prior knowledge.
Yes, the stock is still overvalued, but enough to warrant 30% of the float short? There has to be something going on, what is it? My best guess is one of their big customers is pulling the plug and the word is out. I think their biggest is on a 90 day cancellation contract.