The MMs and traders are simply playing with it at this point. IMHO the only way you'll see a sustainable $15+ is if they have another positive qtr. Looks like they'll have to do it the hard way...via earnings! Interesting concept.
You indirectly hit on an interesting point certus11. While it takes income to build equity their P&L will continue to dictate the stock price, but they're sitting on over $100 mil in free cash by my back of the napkin calculation. This would be a good price at which to initiate a buyback if they believe their prospects are positive.
If nothing else, it might firm up the stock price and scare the hell out of shorts.
Thanks, and you're probably right. That milestone payment has the comps skewed and most are too lazy to do much beyond react to more than headline numbers.Give them 6 months to get get things stabilized rather than simply gambling on a headline reaction.
Other than the long shot chance of someone making an offer for the company it's unlikely they'll be much going on until 2015 other then the institutional guys deciding if they'll hang in there or not. And as we've seen, they panic pretty easily..
I know I'll get slammed for this, but have to share the wisdom of my old stockbroker from many years ago (remember those guys?) His wisdom was "you'll seldom find one cockroach in your kitchen and companies seldom have one bad qtr".
Over time I've found the latter to be true more times than not, and i think the roach caveat is 100%.
I may take a shot at a long when earning near, but with calls to limit the downside risk. Just MHO
You've obviously spent more time looking at this and your response was helpful. Agree that trying trying to comp financials at this early stage if fruitless, but respectfully disagree that those touting companies that they own, or in the case of Gomes repeatedly isn't suspicious.
I also continue to believe they will need cash rather soon and that's a matter for concern considering history and equity structure.
And I think we agree that $10 was silly high and and from my cheap seat this $5 price builds in a lot of optimism.
I won't close the book though based on your analysis. Won't buy here, but'll keep an eye on them for a couple of qtrs. Assume that in 6 months the viability will be much improved. Thanks.
The charts may suggest that, but coming off 2 consecutive positive qtrs I wouldn't bet on. It's true that history suggests the price suffers from fatigue after earning but that doesn't seem to be the case at present either.
A soft report will crush the price but where they've hedged expectations it'd have to be real bad.
Time will tell, just another opinion.
Having just researched this at the request of a friend, I'd suggest current holders do the same. Look at it as though it's your initial exposure.
The unpleasant realities are the financials are not good and they'll be needing more cash very soon. There's no arguing that point. Will Scotts step up again, and in what way if any? Where they couldn't raise money elsewhere, they're at Scotts mercy. Beware them giving Aerogrow the choice of going under or selling out for pennies and keeping their jobs.
Especially troubling is this guy Gomes hyping it on Alpha along with Lazarus that's holding a half million shares. What's that all about?
"Factual" corrections welcome.
My issue is they've explained away the revenue declines for the past 2 and maybe 3 or 4 qtrs by saying orders were delayed and will show up in the next qtr. They haven't, and by the time they report they should have a reasonable handle on what that next qtr will look like.
Thinking about buying a straddle going into the next report depending on what pricing looks like. Play for a big swing one way or the other.
My bet is it's the Sprint T-Mobile deal going south. These two are killing VZ and ATT with pricing and a merger of them would probably result in increased pricing. No merger, they'll both continue to canabalize the big boys with low pricing until they collapse.
Yes, you'd think there'd be more celebration and speculation. I'll start. This high volume trading has a hint of their being acquired. Only other option is the MM's are playing games.
Seeing solid, reasoned posts here on the long term prospects. Probably shouldn't have seen $50 but $40's probably oversold based on fundamentals.
The wild card is the institutions. Suspect they're viewing this as dead money and are selling into any upward movement in order to move onto greener pastures. Question is, at what price will they be content to be patient?
Being a day trader doesn't make you a bad person, unless you're also in politics. I do equal parts day trading and value and my value read of the numbers says $43 is a bit rich at this point. The wild cards here though I continue to believe are the new credibility issues and what the fund guys are doing. As a trader you've probably seen these "pros" can be crazier than the retail players at times. They'll drop you like a hot potato when fortunes reverse.
I've been watching the trades and it could find $37 today. With the markets in reverse, and such big gains built into the pricing the fund managers might just be tempted to save what they can of their gains this afternoon. There's no interest on the buy side so the only question is how much pain the managers are willing to take. So much for institutional support!
I was going to stay away, but sub $40 it's worth a nibble. The numbers weren't that bad.
Should have read the tea leaves on the selling. And the seeming new spin process they've adopted is real disappointing. Think this the 3rd qtr in row that they've attributed sales declines to back orders, and that stunt yesterday with the announcement just before earnings was a disgrace.
Staying away until they show some signs of their former selves. Numbers have to improve and the spin has to stop.
Let's hope they excluded the Monovisc milestone from the margin calculation. That large an increase doesn't feel right. If it's included my back of the napkin says margins declined.
Someone should also press them in the CC what the sales of Monovisc amounted to. Need that number to get handle on how the rest of the lines are faring.
These institutional guys aren't known for their patience. Should be interesting. That PR immediately followed by these soft numbers was bush league stuff. Beneath their dignity
I was impressed by the moderation in tone from the last CC and suspected they were being deliberately conservative but wanting to be more positve. In the past they've been know to post a bad qtr after an encouraging one, but I thought those days were over.
Based on the trading it'd appear more likely their moderation last CC was a precursor to a down one rather than trying not to over promise. I hope not, I'm holding a bundle. Should have hedged with some puts