Seadrills stock price tracks its dividend and oil pricing. It's that simple. When they cut the dividend to sub $1 in 2009 the stock price went from low $30's to $6ish. While 2009 is the extreme example, the current $4 dividend is the extreme top. There are no guarantees here and with the statements from the company about 2014/15 the best bet seems to be a dividend reduction. Where the price settles is anyone's guess, but believing the current dividend will hold seems very naive
Seeing solid, reasoned posts here on the long term prospects. Probably shouldn't have seen $50 but $40's probably oversold based on fundamentals.
The wild card is the institutions. Suspect they're viewing this as dead money and are selling into any upward movement in order to move onto greener pastures. Question is, at what price will they be content to be patient?
My bet is it's the Sprint T-Mobile deal going south. These two are killing VZ and ATT with pricing and a merger of them would probably result in increased pricing. No merger, they'll both continue to canabalize the big boys with low pricing until they collapse.
Absent a general meltdown in the AM based on world events this would be a good level to buy at for a 10, maybe 20% quick gain. Again, absent a stampede to the door tomorrow which is possible if not probable. Traders will not want to be holding over the weekend unless there's some sense of calming.
Being a day trader doesn't make you a bad person, unless you're also in politics. I do equal parts day trading and value and my value read of the numbers says $43 is a bit rich at this point. The wild cards here though I continue to believe are the new credibility issues and what the fund guys are doing. As a trader you've probably seen these "pros" can be crazier than the retail players at times. They'll drop you like a hot potato when fortunes reverse.
I've been watching the trades and it could find $37 today. With the markets in reverse, and such big gains built into the pricing the fund managers might just be tempted to save what they can of their gains this afternoon. There's no interest on the buy side so the only question is how much pain the managers are willing to take. So much for institutional support!
I was going to stay away, but sub $40 it's worth a nibble. The numbers weren't that bad.
I'd suggest the stock price and trading patterns of late obviate the need for listening to the CC. If there was anything positive going on here the company would be shouting it from the rooftops on a real-time basis.
I'm simply hanging around waiting for some 50 cent shares to flip on a bounce at 70. I do congratulate you though on your diligence, and it'd be good to see the believers recover some money.
Should have read the tea leaves on the selling. And the seeming new spin process they've adopted is real disappointing. Think this the 3rd qtr in row that they've attributed sales declines to back orders, and that stunt yesterday with the announcement just before earnings was a disgrace.
Staying away until they show some signs of their former selves. Numbers have to improve and the spin has to stop.
Now that the traders are controlling the price anything can happen. Pick a fmv based on performance metrics, buy below that and sell above. I've chosen $16 until next qtrs numbers are released. This $18 seems overly rich.
Seems Orwell was right, not all the pigs are equal. Some are smarter. That selling was indeed another message. Any thoughts where it'll settle?
It looks like the typical manipulation. Been buying in the $1.50's and $1.60's and placing gtc sells in the $1.70's & $1.80's and it's been working. You won't get rich but it seems you'll score a grand or two every month or so. No doubt will it'll close about even today once they're done playing. Don't get it, but who cares.
You hit the nail on the head. Last qtrs results were a mix of disappointment with existing product sales offset by that milestone payment. The markets tend to react to the headlines and drove the stock price up based on a great qtr driven by the milestone.
My bet is we'll have to see improvements in those existing lines and a good kickoff for Monovisc to hold the mid or high $40's. The headline will be a sequential quarterly decline and that will be difficult to overcome.
Then there's the issue of the whole sector being in the dumps. Time will tell.
I'm not qualified to render an opinion on the viability of the business so I'll stick with playing the 10% swings. 10 tens make 100, less the taxman. And to date, tradings been a lot more effective than holding, so I won't be greedy.
And who knows, it may open up 100% some morning when I'm holding. I bet I'm holding long 60 or 70% of the time and on the sidelines the rest. It takes longer to jump than to retreat. Never short. Good luck with the hold.
If you're wondering why the stock price continues to drop check out Celldex's new partner. 20 years of rah rah press releases and still no products ( one in phase 3). As your mother said, you're know by the company you keep.
I was impressed by the moderation in tone from the last CC and suspected they were being deliberately conservative but wanting to be more positve. In the past they've been know to post a bad qtr after an encouraging one, but I thought those days were over.
Based on the trading it'd appear more likely their moderation last CC was a precursor to a down one rather than trying not to over promise. I hope not, I'm holding a bundle. Should have hedged with some puts
With all this going on how are they going to raise cash? Underwriters are unlikely to run the risk of placing their stock with these reports and law suits in evidence. Most likely outcome is they do a private placement at 25 cents on the dollar to allow for the risk.
And the one certainty is they need cash and quickly.
Which is where we pee wees should be selling and buying back when it retreats. I've been buying at $1.60ish and selling into these pops at 10%+ a trade. Do it 5 times maybe 10 a year the return is better than any hold. Taxes reduce the net, but what the hell, our tax money is keeping kids fed and healthy. Yeh, sure! Anyone buying that?