A month ago I was ready to bet the farm you wouldn't see it drop below $25 but these are turbulent times. So for what it's worth, I'm looking for a good 4th qtr and full year earnings in the range of $1. That'd put their PE in the low 20's at this price range and very low for a company that's been growing as they have.
I see the headwinds as their being so closely tied to banks and Europe, and I fear that'll translate into some conservative forward guidance and maybe a softer 4th qtr than I'd been expecting. The global numbers we've been seeing lately aren't encouraging.
Editorially, the better part of the world is trying to cure their overspending on credit problems by making credit easier and spending more borrowed money. What was it Freud said about the surest sign of insanity?
I own both so this isn't a bash. But running the comparative PE's PEG's and some balance sheet comps APPL should either be closer to $200 or VDSI closer to $15.
Maybe the markets just hate APPL of late or PE's are coming down.And if it's PE's coming down there are a boatload of techs far worse off than either AAPL or VDSI.
Has anyone else done this comparison? Needless to say I'm disappointed with AAPL only being up $8 today, especially where it closed down nearly $4 yesterday. They didn't just hit it out of the park, they hit it off the planet.
With some exceptions of course, it appears the markets are overreacting to misses and under-reacting to good results. I suspect Vasco is going to have to shoot lights out to move the needle north of $25. Missing is too ugly to imagine at its PE and 12 month run.
Very thoughtful and reasoned analysis. Thank you.
And this insider selling is surely a matter of concern as well.
Although late, it's convinced me to move on. Should've done the homework $10 ago.
I seem to recall anik making some sort of announcement just prior to releasing earnings that took the stock to $50. Then the earnings were lukewarm.
As a rule, positive announcements just prior to earnings tend to portend soft results. Let's hope this is a coincidence this qtr.
"Starting to cover" seems an understatement. Markets been open 2 hours and vdsi has traded double its dally volume. I think there are 5 or 6 million shares short. Arguably, they could all be covered by day's end at this rate.
End of the day should tell the story though. Meant to say it should close at $25, not $24, once all this volume subsides if indeed it is a short panic. Hoping the volume is owing to an good earnings leak, but that seems terrible optimistic. Time will tell. Hope for a $28 close.
Great day to play the swings though, no matter what the cause
If you watch level 2, while there are a lot of small trades, there are many more whopper sized than I'd expect if this were simply the nickel dimers churning for a fast buck. I suppose the comfort is they have the fundamentals to support mid $20's. It's the $30 plus range that's out of whack. We've been spoiled.
It's been a hell of a day and I guess we learned that honesty isn't necessarily the best policy when it comes to conference calls when your stock has run 300% in a year. Seems that caution on the second half took the stock from 15% up to 15% down, Apparently someone was listening.
So the question is, does that comment cast a shadow for the next two qtrs? Does the stock sit flat or down until we see the full year results? I worry that the markets aren't that patient.
Thanks to everyone for their thoughtful input. For what it's worth I bailed this morning and will return if it gets to low 20's. It's been a great ( albeit sometimes fearful) ride.
Nice company with good growth but the metrics just don't support the mid $20's.
Good luck to all. And for what it's worth, watch the insiders. They've held firm so any weakness or support there will be be meaningful.
Good point on the insiders. Still selling, but seemingly not at last years rate. Option exercises skew the numbers though.
Nice to have some intelligent discussion on one of these boards.
Of course, if they stink the house out, that'll probably convert everyone to screamer status.
This is a one-off and anecdotal but in talking with the CIO of a multi billion $ bank I asked about dual authentication and got an interesting series of observations.
1) customers don't like it..too cumbersome and everyone today wants instantaneous access ( bad news)
2) In spite of #1,the belief is all banks are going to have to adopt it for either liability purposes and maybe adoption will become a legislative mandate (great news)
3) Every internet security provider has huge exposure if the systems they are protecting are violated. Banks and others are loading up on security, if for no other reason than to have someone to go after if they're hacked.
Agree, but CYBR's PEG is much better. Think they doubled their revs year over year.
Nevertheless, a PE of 200ish is hard to swallow even for one of Wall Sts shinning stars.
I couldn't continue to hold VDSI at 40ish.
If forced to buy one or the other, I'd probably take VDSI. Less downside, but I'm cowardly sometimes.
Good news is it's becoming a great trade opportunity. Start nibbling if it gets to the $24's, and continue buying seriously below that. Don't mind owing it as a longer term hold at $24, assuming that the wheels don't come completely off the space or the company itself.
Buy below $25 sell above $26 with minimal fear of a serious downturn.Think there'll be lots of turns in this range.