That's no doubt a direct quote you posted, but this full year increase was based on the big contract(s) signed earlier in the year. They didn't back off the last half guidance, simply adjusted full year to account for good early qtrs. Granted, I don't think they reiterated the late quarter projections with this release, but they didn't retract them either...simply blended the whole year. Time will tell
For the past 2 qtrs they've been forthright in saying they expect the second half of the year to soften and these guys historically have been quite accurate with their guidance. With the high institutional ownership I'm pretty certain these shorts know this is going to be a mediocre report with flat or lowered guidance. Other than the high PE which is not uncommon in this sector, that's the only thing I can think of.
We'll know for sure tonight.
This is basically just noise that'll cost them a bundle in legal fees but will end okay. But when heaped atop the insider and institutional selling, the huge short position, and their guidance of a softening year end it's sort of the icing on the cake.
Think Vasco will see $20 or below with earnings release, absent a miracle. The shorts, insiders and institutions can't all be wrong.
They have a ton of cash, but not enough political clout to make the problem go away.
Government will beat them like a borrowed mule to demonstrate they're doing their job.
And if you're a conspiracy theorist you might suspect a big competitor or hedge fund is behind this.
That huge short position is there for a reason.
If this were IBM you'd never have heard the story. It'd be fixed in DC with a bag of cash.
These items are all true, but the deal sealer is the insider sales. Prior to this past year there's been no selling, now they and the institutions are getting out as gracefully as possible. These are the people who know what's coming down the pike. They and whoever is holding those huge short positions. Probably the same people shorting against the box
You got it sentinelrules. All of these cybers have reached the point where small beats are going to cost the holders. And don't even think about misses or reduced guidance. They're priced to perfection.
Vasco's already been knocked back ( I think) in anticipation of continuing relatively modest growth, low double digits. If they meet those figures a couple of more points may shaved off, anything less hello $20 and maybe teens. A blow-out qtr with improved guidance, back to the $30's.
Two ways to lose, one to win. Hence, the huge short position remains.
Betting you'll get another gift tomorrow. Naz closed at it's low for the day and a Vasco "rally" from $26 to $27 after falling nearly 30% ($9) from it's high is hardly convincing. Should have sold the bounce earlier.
Suspect it'll test or maybe break $25 tomorrow. Early today was driven by shorts taking profits pretty much all around. Tomorrow the selling recommences.
It's partially a hysterical reaction to what might happen to all European bank, but that's only a small part. No one really cares about Greece, it's the spillover possibility with the rest of the PIGS and Europe in general.
The greater problem is Vasco is (or was) quite overpriced as is the whole sector. $34 was crazy high. And you'll notice the whole sector is down, cybr and virtually the whole group.
Vasco's price should be low mid $20's and I think it'll bottom there unless the shorts really get a panic going. But if you think you'll see $30 anytime soon, think again.
Agreed. Maybe they're just gauging the world reaction to finally pulling the plug. To date though it appears the world wants them to kick the can down the road again.
Living day to day on a Greek deal? They cooked the books to get into the union and went on a spending and borrowing spree. When the EU got after them 5 + years ago to make reforms for continued support they made a number of commitments to austerity. To date they haven't deliver on one. In fact, they've regressed.
The rhetorical question is " what difference does it make if they come to agreement?" They're not going to abide by it anyway!
Saw that piece this AM where he mentioned FEYE and maybe another by name. Doubt he'll mention VDSI and actually hope he doesn't. VDSI isn't as sexy as the rest and their margins are way lower. Growth is also way less.
Suspect if he mentions VDSI is won't be positive...not in this beauty contest.
You did right. What's the old expression about hogs getting slaughtered?
This is a nice company, but it's just running on mo mo with the rest of the sector. Valuations are crazy and you'll notice the short percentage hasn't budged. And it seems the biggest challenge today is to find more shares to short at these levels.
This is a 10% or so growth company this year. Can't support this crazy PEG / PE
Think it'll see $25 before $35, but I would never have thought it'd get to where it is today so we'll see. Maybe a buyer is sniffing around. Nice trade.
Thank you all for your enlightened and thoughtful responses. My calculations were screaming at me to sell in the $40's and while this $30's level may be reasonable there'd appear to be minimal upside for the foreseeable feature.
Reluctantly moving on, as this is one of the best boards I've experienced. Thank you again and best wishes..
Does anyone know if they have any more in the pipeline? Absent the last milestone their stabilized annual net is about $1 a share. Doesn't warrant a price in the $30's, much less the $40's. Pipeline isn't very exciting, or doesn't appear to be from what I've read.
I think this secondary eliminates the prospects for a sale of the company.You don't dilute if there's a sale on the horizon.
Paulson's a hedge fund guy and my bet is he recovered the better part of his investment on the bounce via shorts. He may still be in, but probably at a fraction of the initial investment.
How could anyone take a serious long term position in this broken record company? "Our numbers continue to deteriorate and we ran out of money again, but we have lots of irons in the fire" They should just run the transcript of a conference call of 5 years ago each qtr and save folks some time.
It is fun though playing the bounces. Just don't take the company seriously.
I've boiled it down to 2 things 1) that while their numbers continue to be good they're no longer growing as quickly as others and as they were and this mid $20's price is fair to maybe a little rich 2) the institutions are moving out seeking more fertile options and the shorts are taking advantage of that conversion from institutional to retail. They're comfortable there's little risk of an explosion to the upside, and even there they seem to be hedging with cheap call options. I've followed their lead and feel I'm in a maybe win, can't lose position.
Suspect the funds may go into "get out at any price" to preserve what's left of their gains and panicking newer retail longs may exacerbate a sell off.
At present, for longs good company/ bad stock as they say.
Only point with which I disagree is value, and it's a big one. If you take out last years benchmark payment and look at their performance on a stabilized basis $32 is very expensive. I think the $32 represents a market cap of like 5 times sales and doubt whatever traditional acquisition measure you apply you'll come to $32. And you've seeming corrupted me into talking about acquisition, now we're in real trouble. I'm moving on. Good luck.