Can't argue w the assertion that the US lags much of the world in technology, especially Europe. But remember our bankers have bigger fish to fry, such as dealing with their compensation committees. Convincing those guys you deserve $20 mil+ a year in comp isn't easy after you've nearly bankrupted the bank.
Where are you from? My take is the US is generally 5 to 10 years behind Europe in virtually everything from social programs to technology thru bankruptcy.
When we criticize our pols on our debt and spending level all they want to do is tell you to look at Europe. Apparently, it's okay to be irresponsible so long as you can find others who are even more irresponsible. As goes europe, so goes the US
I agree Hunt's been playing it conservative, but I think for good reason. As you point out, Europes been a mess for quite awhile so it's tough to be optimistic with guidance.
My concern is the ECB being pressured by Germany to shut off the rest of the crowd that's refused to take steps to get their ships righted. Suspect this is translating into recognition they won't cooperate and that the wheels are officially falling off.
We'll have to wait to hear from vasco later. Doubt they'll be any more optimistic though. Would like to see them land a big account on this side of the Atlantic to balance things.. .
If the pros are right Europe's in the crapper, with the rest of the world faltering. The US is probably the healthiest.
Where Vasco is so dependent on europe and areas outside the US, can you really expect growth? I'd suspect security is way down most european bankers priority list at present. Expense with no recognizable return on investment.
Of course when they're hacked priorities change, but will they be inclined to spend on security until that happens to them?
That 14 multiple includes the big benchmark payment. Strip it out and you're in the 20's.
This qtr will be telling. With a click up in the top line mid $30's may hold. Continued erosion, say hello to $20's.
My guess is $28 to $30 is the new range. Overall market melts aren't helping a bit.
Agreed, the retail market at least does tend to sell the good ones in tough times and double down on their losers and I suspect many of the "pros' do too. Want to book the gains so their numbers look better.
And that's why I'm scared of vasco at this level. Common sense has left the building.
China's economy is headed for the crapper. Way too much growth and expansion when the west was borrowing and spending itself into economic oblivion. Europe's looking at a depression and our economy is boarding on running in reverse. Demand for their products is abating from their trade partners
Way too much profit in price. Sellers are salvaging gains wherever they have them. Think you'll see closer to $10 before $22. Shorts finally having their run
Today is a great example of low volume but big % declines in price. I don't think there's been a trade of over a few thousand shares, and certainly there's no "news". How's it off over $2?
My take is there's no retail interest in the stock and the institutions are bleeding it off in drips and drabs but are finding it costly to exit.
Any other thoughts?
Looking at fundamentals across the indexes it'd appear it mostly emotion on both sides of most issues. That and money with no place to go! Great traders markets
Believe me I'm not bashing Vasco, I think they're doing fine. But I move on when my value calculations get to over bought. On this one I've been in and out from $3 to $50 going back what, 10 years now?
The current trading suggests to me more mo mo than substance if you take acquisition out of the equation. And even at that low $20's is my valuation.
Watching closely though and will be back in below $17 or if they have a another solid qtr.
Thanks for the input and good luck with it. Maybe we'll see another run to $50 and I'll kick my butt!
Agree, but I'm selling here to be safe. Figure the stock moved to $14 based on the past couple of qtrs earnings and a 40+ % premium would seem reasonable. Besides, Hunt's getting pretty long in the tooth.
Fear is they're just may be playing with the price, so taking $20 protects the downside and should represent something close to FMV in a buy out. Give up a few potential % points to the upside for security. Cheap insurance.
I concur. Running the numbers I think going forward they're looking at $2 or so and if you use a PE of 15 or so $30 to $35 seems about right. Of course the fly in the ointment at present are the institutions that seem to be running for the door to save what gains they may have left. With such a small retail market they could push it way down.
At this point i think I'll follow their lead. As you pointed out there's no real upside for the foreseeable future so save what you can of the profits and chock another one up to experience. Why'd we hold at $50, institutional support? If they bang it to $20 reload. Thanks for the insight.
Seems Orwell was right, not all the pigs are equal. Some are smarter. That selling was indeed another message. Any thoughts where it'll settle?
Now that the traders are controlling the price anything can happen. Pick a fmv based on performance metrics, buy below that and sell above. I've chosen $16 until next qtrs numbers are released. This $18 seems overly rich.
Seadrills stock price tracks its dividend and oil pricing. It's that simple. When they cut the dividend to sub $1 in 2009 the stock price went from low $30's to $6ish. While 2009 is the extreme example, the current $4 dividend is the extreme top. There are no guarantees here and with the statements from the company about 2014/15 the best bet seems to be a dividend reduction. Where the price settles is anyone's guess, but believing the current dividend will hold seems very naive
I suppose this is easier to say from the sidelines, but why on earth would any retail owner be holding long at this level? The guys with 100's of thousands are somewhat stuck but getting off 5 or 10,000 in small lots isn't impossible, although it's getting late in the game. Even the optomists have conceded to sub $1 next week.