Friday afternoon jitters from some smaller shorts. Some can have a near double on their position so taking some profit is prudent, just in case. Predict if nothing has changed by monday morning they'll get to hammering it again....if they can find shares.
In Fidelity's case, as pointed out by another poster, they were a major holder in VDSI. They have now abandoned the long positions and gone short.
Clearly by holding such a big long position they were privy to what's coming down the pike, or at least a lot more privy than anyone here. If they're still on the short side and clearly they are, there has to be something awful coming. Stocks don't drop 50% on account of the ambulance chasers going after them.
I agree with you 100%. What they (Fidelity) is seemingly doing is planning on shooting their customers in the head and asking the customer if they can borrow his gun to do it.
I didn't think they were this bad, but apparently I'm wrong. They're seemingly all the same.
Whoever is looking to borrow them is paying an annual rate of 15%, calculated daily for a year.
He wouldn't comment on who, or offer advice but did say it's a very rare occurrence.
Just left yet another message. Been with them for 25 years and never had such a call. This is now the third, maybe fourth message.
I'm going to call back, as this time it was my account exec calling. See what they're offering and try to get a read on how big the demand is.
It not me, it's the numbers that are crystal clear. Can you read financial statements? By now near zero cash and $120 million in bills currently due.
Only alternative is a white knight coming up with big $. And anyone forking over that much cash is going to take the majority of the stock. Current longs will be virtually wiped out. This part is my opinion, unlike the straight numbers facts above,
They're burning at $20 mil a quarter and are out of cash with $120 mil in current debt and another $20 in long term.
They'll be locking the place up in a month without an infusion and it isn't coming cheap, if at all.
Paying the last debt installment off with 1/2 price stock is going to look like child's play when they make their next move.
Yes, they're profitable for 2015, but this meltdown is predicting 2016. Their growth has plateaued and their own guidance is weak. Absent a miracle, 2016 will see a big portion of that 2015 profit evaporate, absent a miracle.
You are now also been seeing insider selling that is very new to Vasco.
I'm waiting to see what the insiders do here. And, of course, all the big runners are being taken back to earth so Vasco isn't alone.
On the bright side they have cash to sustain themselves. But that doesn't have much impact on the stock price in this environment
I couldn't find a trail either and I guess at this point it's purely academic anyway. Seriously doubt Fidelity or its customers are naked though. They wouldn't be scrambling to find shares to borrow if they were.
They're still calling looking for shares to borrow, but what's also interesting is my recollection that not too long ago their funds held big long positions. I don't see Fidelity on the major holders list anymore so maybe it's them shifting sides that's fueling the fire.
Does anyone agree or disagree that Fidelity was in big here a year or so ago.If they were they'd probably gained good insight into 2015 and beyond and are maybe exploiting that. Or maybe I'm paranoid and they were never in.
They'll issue a positive PR every time the phone rings. But it's not going to do any good.
Whatever is wrong here will take it to the single digits within a month. Short positions do nothing but grow. And it's near impossible to find shares to short. Take the hint
What do you mean no signs of declining business? There's $50 mil of Rabo revenue in 2015 that isn't going to repeat in 2016. That's 25% of their 2015 revenue gone!
And it's not like it's a secret, they've been telling you for 6+ months.
Take $50 mil out of their 2015 top line and see what happens to the bottom. Absent a miracle they're going to lose a minimum of $20 to $30 mil in 2016, Their other customer revenue has been growing at maybe 10% a year and flattening most recently. It'll take 5 years just to get back to 2015 levels at 10% growth and even that's unlikely
Hence the ever increasing short position. There's no conspiracy here, just simple arithmetic. The Iran nonsense is a side show. But I'm now betting $5 before $25. Buy the puts if you can get them and watch the insider sales.
Let these fantasy land idiots believe what they will and invent their fictitious phone calls.
After receiving that call i bot puts to hedge against further downside. I'm now going to ask how much their paying to borrow the shares, maybe that'll signal how steep a drop is coming. On the 29th they were at 6%.
I'm sure the morons here are all buying while the houses are still calling looking for more shares to lend. They have a death-wish.
I think it's because the recent decline is based on speculation as to what late 2015 and 2016's numbers will look like based on the company's guidance. It's clear now the heavyweights have better insight and are banking on another 50% drop when the numbers actually materialize. They're not in it this heavy by accident.
So if you didn't get the message from the heavy short positions the first time, that was negligence. If you now choose to ignore the continually growing short position that's stupidity. As you point out, some shorts nearly doubled their money already, yet they're still piling on.
The rabid longs will flip out over this, but the question is, for how much longer will we be using passwords?
The world is rapidly moving towards thumbprints, retinal scams and who knows what else. Doesn't this transition render Vascos offerings obsolete?
Intelligent responses are welcome.
Management's not looking clever at the moment with the stock 40% off its high.
But that aside, I think $50 mil is the consensus top line hit, but the bottom line effect is left hanging. Do you apply their standard gross margin to the $50 Mil or some other number? if you apply their standard margin their profits for 16 disappear. They either have to back-fill that $50 mil, or start cutting costs.
Has anyone calculated the bottom line impact of that income not recurring in 2016? It has to be significant. Top line is easy, but haven't seen any estimates on the bottom
Have you ever been right about anything? Good news for the rest of us is all we have to do is the opposite of what you predict. Thanks!