Now that the traders are controlling the price anything can happen. Pick a fmv based on performance metrics, buy below that and sell above. I've chosen $16 until next qtrs numbers are released. This $18 seems overly rich.
Seadrills stock price tracks its dividend and oil pricing. It's that simple. When they cut the dividend to sub $1 in 2009 the stock price went from low $30's to $6ish. While 2009 is the extreme example, the current $4 dividend is the extreme top. There are no guarantees here and with the statements from the company about 2014/15 the best bet seems to be a dividend reduction. Where the price settles is anyone's guess, but believing the current dividend will hold seems very naive
I suppose this is easier to say from the sidelines, but why on earth would any retail owner be holding long at this level? The guys with 100's of thousands are somewhat stuck but getting off 5 or 10,000 in small lots isn't impossible, although it's getting late in the game. Even the optomists have conceded to sub $1 next week.
I'd suggest the stock price and trading patterns of late obviate the need for listening to the CC. If there was anything positive going on here the company would be shouting it from the rooftops on a real-time basis.
I'm simply hanging around waiting for some 50 cent shares to flip on a bounce at 70. I do congratulate you though on your diligence, and it'd be good to see the believers recover some money.
Won't disagree that their increasing cash burn is looking like a problem, but it's mitigated if you back off the majority of the deferred revenue of $12 mil in the current liability section. That's a non-cash liability.Bottom line though is they have to deliver on the top line or there's a serious problem.
If you look at the slow but steady growth of solar and wind combined with what appears to be a slowing global economy it doesn't bode well for oil. Even the auto industry is moving slowly towards electric, propane and high mileage.
Beware dividend traps.
The MMs and traders are simply playing with it at this point. IMHO the only way you'll see a sustainable $15+ is if they have another positive qtr. Looks like they'll have to do it the hard way...via earnings! Interesting concept.
You indirectly hit on an interesting point certus11. While it takes income to build equity their P&L will continue to dictate the stock price, but they're sitting on over $100 mil in free cash by my back of the napkin calculation. This would be a good price at which to initiate a buyback if they believe their prospects are positive.
If nothing else, it might firm up the stock price and scare the hell out of shorts.
Thanks, and you're probably right. That milestone payment has the comps skewed and most are too lazy to do much beyond react to more than headline numbers.Give them 6 months to get get things stabilized rather than simply gambling on a headline reaction.
Other than the long shot chance of someone making an offer for the company it's unlikely they'll be much going on until 2015 other then the institutional guys deciding if they'll hang in there or not. And as we've seen, they panic pretty easily..
I know I'll get slammed for this, but have to share the wisdom of my old stockbroker from many years ago (remember those guys?) His wisdom was "you'll seldom find one cockroach in your kitchen and companies seldom have one bad qtr".
Over time I've found the latter to be true more times than not, and i think the roach caveat is 100%.
I may take a shot at a long when earning near, but with calls to limit the downside risk. Just MHO
You've obviously spent more time looking at this and your response was helpful. Agree that trying trying to comp financials at this early stage if fruitless, but respectfully disagree that those touting companies that they own, or in the case of Gomes repeatedly isn't suspicious.
I also continue to believe they will need cash rather soon and that's a matter for concern considering history and equity structure.
And I think we agree that $10 was silly high and and from my cheap seat this $5 price builds in a lot of optimism.
I won't close the book though based on your analysis. Won't buy here, but'll keep an eye on them for a couple of qtrs. Assume that in 6 months the viability will be much improved. Thanks.
The charts may suggest that, but coming off 2 consecutive positive qtrs I wouldn't bet on. It's true that history suggests the price suffers from fatigue after earning but that doesn't seem to be the case at present either.
A soft report will crush the price but where they've hedged expectations it'd have to be real bad.
Time will tell, just another opinion.
Having just researched this at the request of a friend, I'd suggest current holders do the same. Look at it as though it's your initial exposure.
The unpleasant realities are the financials are not good and they'll be needing more cash very soon. There's no arguing that point. Will Scotts step up again, and in what way if any? Where they couldn't raise money elsewhere, they're at Scotts mercy. Beware them giving Aerogrow the choice of going under or selling out for pennies and keeping their jobs.
Especially troubling is this guy Gomes hyping it on Alpha along with Lazarus that's holding a half million shares. What's that all about?
"Factual" corrections welcome.
My issue is they've explained away the revenue declines for the past 2 and maybe 3 or 4 qtrs by saying orders were delayed and will show up in the next qtr. They haven't, and by the time they report they should have a reasonable handle on what that next qtr will look like.
Thinking about buying a straddle going into the next report depending on what pricing looks like. Play for a big swing one way or the other.
My bet is it's the Sprint T-Mobile deal going south. These two are killing VZ and ATT with pricing and a merger of them would probably result in increased pricing. No merger, they'll both continue to canabalize the big boys with low pricing until they collapse.