He's magic and just cost me. Covered my short as soon as I saw his piece.
So long as he's positive on cldx stay with it. I can probably count on one hand the number of positive pieces I read of his.
Recently he trashed nwbo and took the stock price down at least 50%.
Can't say if he really knows what he's talking about, but the fact is you don't want to be on the wrong side of his reporting. Doesn't matter if he's right or wrong.
He should consider politics. Talked for 5 plus minutes and said basically nothing. Started to bad mouth critics but got shut off.
Mother must have told him, "if you can't say nothing good, don't say anything at all". Waste of air time but wasn't destructive. Today's 10% pullback might suggest otherwise however.
Didn't NWBO recently pull a quick one with a secondary as well? I'm not involved with that one, but tend to play these based on managements behavior rather than trying to guess if the science is any good. I predict cldx will be back to $14's or lower by monday once common sense returns. Maybe I'll look at nwbo
My comment related to this particular event. And it's true CLDX is far deeper than that one trick pony, but having multiple failures versus one isn't good either. At least DNDN got something to market.
These guys seem more adept at selling their holdings into secondary offerings rather than getting any science to market. Remember their bail out at $24 with options to buy back at $24 if they happened to make the wrong decision? That quick step put me in the shorts corner and i hit it again yesterday on this useless PR.
How can you trust these guys when they dump their holdings on the unsuspecting secondary buyers and almost immediately thereafter withdraw testing on one of their leads?
Their stats were similar. Prostate cancer victims lived an additional 3 months or so. Drug was approved at $100K+ a treatment and insurers, patients and doctors rejected it. Same scenario here.
I'm sorry, but you have brain cancer and will die in 8 months. But hold on, with this new great drug you can suffer another 3 months or so.
BTW, Dendreon is in bankruptcy
I too have been involved since $3 to $50 and back. But back then this was a one trick pony and got to that nose bleed price based on momentum.
Today they're far more diversified and all they seem to be missing is that big US contract. There's obviously some optimism built into this $27 but not an unwarranted amount like "last time".
Holding a big core position and buying below $27 and selling above to add a few buck to the IRA. Not worried about a collapse.
Think a US customer is more likely than an acquisition.
BTW, they've been excluding new product revenue for at least a year or two.
Good trade. Now be doubly smart and take your profit. This company is going nowhere. Their retail shops are hopeless and the only place I've seen their jeans ( outside their own stores) is on discount racks and at discounters stores. Marshall's ect).
You'll sleep better if you do your homework to decide for yourself what the price should be via earnings growth and other things calculable and ignore the trading. I mentioned my number is $27 so if the traders knock it back I buy.
Your calculations will not always be right, in fact it's seldom you hit it on the sweet spot, but at least you'll have a basis for the buy sell decisions.
These emotion packed decisions are pure guesswork. They could drive this back to $20 and if you're just guessing you'll be ulcers.
Traders. VDSI is now a traders stock. Fundamentals still great but now that it's on the radar screen they'll move it all over the place.
So pick a fair price and buy it below and sell it above. I'm using $27
I've been involved for 10 years, and this past year or so they've finally been hitting on all cylinders. Growth and margins have been great and I think they've been deliberately going conservative on guidance.
I suppose anything can happen, but if they continue the trend $35 early next year is not a totally unreasonable expectation.
And the problem with being on the sidelines is, if they ever land a big US bank it has the potential to run much higher overnight. With their balance sheet and growth they're also a tempting buy-out target, but maybe I'm getting carried away.
I'm watching the insiders. If they start exiting so will I, but absent that or a fall on their face last qtr I'm holding.
If Yahoo is correct, so far in 2014 he's acquired via options 350,000 shares and sold 470,000, give or take a few thousand. He seems to be holding about 170,000
The rest of the insider group hold very small amounts at this price level.
Not exactly a vote of confidence unless they are sitting on substantial numbers of options that have yet to be exercised. Anyone have those numbers?
Can't argue w the assertion that the US lags much of the world in technology, especially Europe. But remember our bankers have bigger fish to fry, such as dealing with their compensation committees. Convincing those guys you deserve $20 mil+ a year in comp isn't easy after you've nearly bankrupted the bank.
Where are you from? My take is the US is generally 5 to 10 years behind Europe in virtually everything from social programs to technology thru bankruptcy.
When we criticize our pols on our debt and spending level all they want to do is tell you to look at Europe. Apparently, it's okay to be irresponsible so long as you can find others who are even more irresponsible. As goes europe, so goes the US
I agree Hunt's been playing it conservative, but I think for good reason. As you point out, Europes been a mess for quite awhile so it's tough to be optimistic with guidance.
My concern is the ECB being pressured by Germany to shut off the rest of the crowd that's refused to take steps to get their ships righted. Suspect this is translating into recognition they won't cooperate and that the wheels are officially falling off.
We'll have to wait to hear from vasco later. Doubt they'll be any more optimistic though. Would like to see them land a big account on this side of the Atlantic to balance things.. .
If the pros are right Europe's in the crapper, with the rest of the world faltering. The US is probably the healthiest.
Where Vasco is so dependent on europe and areas outside the US, can you really expect growth? I'd suspect security is way down most european bankers priority list at present. Expense with no recognizable return on investment.
Of course when they're hacked priorities change, but will they be inclined to spend on security until that happens to them?
That 14 multiple includes the big benchmark payment. Strip it out and you're in the 20's.
This qtr will be telling. With a click up in the top line mid $30's may hold. Continued erosion, say hello to $20's.
My guess is $28 to $30 is the new range. Overall market melts aren't helping a bit.
Agreed, the retail market at least does tend to sell the good ones in tough times and double down on their losers and I suspect many of the "pros' do too. Want to book the gains so their numbers look better.
And that's why I'm scared of vasco at this level. Common sense has left the building.
China's economy is headed for the crapper. Way too much growth and expansion when the west was borrowing and spending itself into economic oblivion. Europe's looking at a depression and our economy is boarding on running in reverse. Demand for their products is abating from their trade partners