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Verizon Communications Inc. Message Board

islb3 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 18, 2016 3:28 PM Member since: Mar 21, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Is CLDX Going To Go Bankrupt?

    by golf.paul123 Mar 18, 2016 10:04 AM
    islb3 islb3 Mar 18, 2016 3:28 PM Flag

    About that 90% theory. Be honest, I bet you said the same thing at 50% 60, 70 and 80%. These things do go to zero you know. Happens almost daily.
    It's at this price for a reason and history would dictate when they fall this fast this quickly, they are odds on favorites to reach zero. If you haven't read the news their science has been declared junk by independent examiners...and they agreed!

  • Stock is what 60% off it's high, trailing PE in the lower teens and forward low 20's maybe. And there's still 30+% short and they're looking to borrow more.
    Must be nice to have the inside track.

  • Reply to

    Is CLDX Going To Go Bankrupt?

    by golf.paul123 Mar 18, 2016 10:04 AM
    islb3 islb3 Mar 18, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    While someone here just pointed out they presumably have enough cash to get them thru 2017, the thing to be fearful of and the reason the stock continues to trade down is precisely that!

    Sometime before 2018 they'll have to raise a boatload of money to get them to an endpoint on anything in the pipeline. That'll require another stock offering and that offering will for all practical purposes be so dilutive as to virtually wipe out today's stockholders.

    CLDX may not go bankrupt, but todays stockholders will see the value of their stock to to pennies via financing's. The strategy would be to take your $3 today, put it under your mattress until after the next offering and if you believe in their pipeline buy back in on what'll be something like a 90% discount to todays value.
    The sensible thing to do would be for them to sell the pipeline and liquidate the company today and distribute the cash to the stockholders. But that would mean no more fat paychecks, so scratch that one from the list.

  • Reply to

    W are half way through the reporting period

    by the_raven_36 Mar 11, 2016 4:40 PM
    islb3 islb3 Mar 14, 2016 10:54 AM Flag

    That's true on a global basis, but the only things that are going to move the needle north with this company is a big unanticipated win, or some signs of life related to the acquisition.

    And where these guys have traditionally ( or at least lately) have been pretty accurate on their guidance, absent a surprise 2016 is pretty much business as usual. Dead money.

  • Reply to

    Rinega poisoned entire pipeline

    by islb3 Mar 9, 2016 10:09 AM
    islb3 islb3 Mar 9, 2016 4:16 PM Flag

    You should share this insight with Celdex. Clearly they erred in throwing in the towel on it. Jeeze

  • Some here are ignoring that. Rintega was the slam dunk and it was proven totally worthless. The rest will fail as well.

  • Celldex is a heap of dog dung and Marucci and company act more like used car salesmen than executives, but things like what happened here are regular events on Wall St.

    All the SEC has to do is go back and look at who the big sellers were during the crash and connect a few dots. Someone(s) leaked the rejection well in advance and all you have to do is follow the money and put some feet to the fire. It'd be like shooting fish in a barrel, but they don't. Instead they go after a Martha Stewart type to get the news coverage over what amounted to peanuts.

  • islb3 islb3 Mar 1, 2016 12:35 PM Flag

    Your's is the most astute observation I've ever read here. A continuation of the "we've engaged so and so to study such and such" followed by an offering to pack the bank account with more cash. And I agree the earlier runners are unlikely to sucker their customers a third time.
    Only point of disagreement is with the $7.50. Think it'll be closer to $4, but Marucci doesn't care. Just sell more shares. It's all about keeping their salary checks flowing, isn't it.
    And don't expect to see anything on Rintega until the money is in the bank. That's part two of the dance. Raise cash, then drop the bomb.
    I guess I've grown skeptical over the years, but the pattern is the pattern.

  • Reply to

    The numbers

    by islb3 Feb 29, 2016 10:51 AM
    islb3 islb3 Feb 29, 2016 3:12 PM Flag

    Thank you for your insightful comment on the obvious..

  • Having sorted thru the cc transcript and year end release my take is they're looking to get $20 to $25 mil to the bottom line for 16. With 40 million shares that's roughly 50 to 70 cents. Apply a PE of 15 and you have a stock price of $7 to $10.
    Comments?

  • islb3 islb3 Feb 28, 2016 3:17 PM Flag

    Taxes I know about, and it does the providers no good to inflate retail for tax purposes. I think the inflated retail numbers are a product of insurers and the governments paying a % of the "ordinary" charge. Inflate the ordinary and get a bigger reimbursement. I know on government grants this is how they work on overhead reimbursements and I personally worked on organizations calculations of their overhead rates to maximize them for this purpose.

  • islb3 islb3 Feb 27, 2016 1:49 PM Flag

    I should have been clearer "retired lady". Medical providers have been under more and more pressure from government for years with increased paperwork ( Hippa for instance), and pricing pressure from medicare medicaid. Since Obamacare, the number of people on medicaid has swelled and their reimbursement rates are lower than Medicares in areas where they can dictate their "allowed" charge.
    The point I'm making is Sanders and Clinton have vowed to get medical costs "under control" and I believe they'll go after all providers, including medical devices. Congress may block them temporarily, but another 8 years with either in the white house will be another camel's nose under the tent.
    Editorially, if you see what medicare pays for services now compared to "retail" it's dramatic and I'm not certain if it's the retail that's crazy high or the discount ( probably a combination). The sin is if you're uninsured and have resources the hospitals will chase you to your grave to collect the retail. If a clothing retailer puts a crazy high retail on an item and "discounts" it 80% they get fined. The same rules for medical providers would be fair.
    I apologize for digressing, but my point remains that I believe any provider of product or services will probably see their pricing limited over time.

  • islb3 islb3 Feb 22, 2016 11:02 AM Flag

    If you think the government ( Hillary) won't control pricing, ask a hospital administrator.........especially after Obamacare kicked in.

  • Reply to

    Question

    by islb3 Feb 17, 2016 10:00 AM
    islb3 islb3 Feb 17, 2016 10:42 AM Flag

    The other option I forgot about is the backlog is real, but nothing is coming in the front door. I guess these are the only 3 options. faking backlog, low balling revenue forecasts or real backlog, but nothing in the pipeline
    They're halfway thru the 1st qtr. so they should have some visibility.

  • Reply to

    Question

    by islb3 Feb 17, 2016 10:00 AM
    islb3 islb3 Feb 17, 2016 10:24 AM Flag

    Or he's lying about the backlog. I tend to agree with you he's low balling the top line forecast as a buffer. You'd think one of the genius "analysts" would have asked about that in the CC. Who am I kidding, these clowns don't have a clue. Thanks

  • islb3 by islb3 Feb 17, 2016 10:00 AM Flag

    How do you end 15 with the biggest backlog ever and an acquisition presumably adding some revenue to the to line and guide so low.
    The big Rabo deal skewed the numbers between years, but $205 to $215. That's what they ended 2014 with

  • Reply to

    Maybe there'll be a miracle tonight

    by islb3 Feb 16, 2016 11:08 AM
    islb3 islb3 Feb 17, 2016 9:43 AM Flag

    The only miracle I see is how well the price is holding up considering the numbers and guidance. The conference call transcript was awful as well.
    Projecting a 20% decline in revenues for 16 and their bottom line being halved , if not worse. And no expectations of anything from Silanis until 17! Reeks of a hail mary pass that that got dropped in the end zone.

  • After watching CYBR and lots of others that that had good qtrs but hinted at a little forward weakness, it'll take a miracle.
    Vasco's clients are heavily in the European banking sector which is on it's #$%$, and then we have the loss of the Rabo deal from last year and the drag of the acquisition. I suppose a lot of this is built in as it's no secret, so maybe miracles do happen.
    This morning's bump appears to be some nervous small shorts covering.

  • Reply to

    CYBR

    by mavi2307 Feb 11, 2016 6:09 PM
    islb3 islb3 Feb 12, 2016 1:26 PM Flag

    VDSI will unquestionably reduce guidance for 2016. The question then becomes by how much and how will the price react. That 10 PE is a goner, what will the market decide is the right one.
    CYBR's stock price last year didn't belong as high as it was, but this drubbing appears to be way overdone based on what's actually positive guidance that most companies would kill for!

  • It's that simple, and to make matters worse, it's the European banks!

VZ
50.94-0.08(-0.16%)Apr 29 4:04 PMEDT