VDSI will unquestionably reduce guidance for 2016. The question then becomes by how much and how will the price react. That 10 PE is a goner, what will the market decide is the right one.
CYBR's stock price last year didn't belong as high as it was, but this drubbing appears to be way overdone based on what's actually positive guidance that most companies would kill for!
It was a 100 yard dash. 10 seconds or so. Back to normal already with lots of big sells.
Move the decimal point one more digit to the left and you'll have the stock price by March or April.
Read a piece that implied Tableaus' poor results triggered this bloodbath in security companies and that Linked In's problems contributed to the problem as jobs for people in security have lessened.
The relatively good news for Vasco is their customer base isn't the larger commercial but rather the banking industry.. The bad news is the banks have their own set of problems and probably aren't putting security at the top of their priority list..
Stock has lost 75% of it's value on huge volume that's getting bigger every day and you really believe that the the bad news isn't already in the hands of the hedgies and others?
If yes, you'll be happy to learn Bernie Madoff is opening a new fund. You wouldnt want to miss getting in on the ground floor.
Any of these start-ups that do secondary's when they don't need the money usually issue failure reports shortly after the cash is in the bank.
This is the second one for these guys. Cash from last secondary is collected, now the bad news. Remember the prior one?
Doubt they'll be doing another anytime soon!
He's a finance guy and has kept the stock price inflated with dividends, stock buy backs ect. Product has taken a back seat.
Now they're forced to pay the dividend with borrowed money as the bulk of their cash is trapped overseas and there's no cash left to buy more stock they have to compete. And they can't. The innovator is dead and so is the company. Can't field a viable product, so they're dusting off the I-Phone 5. How embarrassing.
Where the majority of their business is of the ongoing variety guiding for the full year is probably appropriate and deal with the blips as they occur. I just wish they'd dealt with this Rabo blip much earlier where they knew it was coming. It would have been comforting if they said something about adjusting expenses to recognize the revenue drop, but it'd appear they have no intention of doing that.
We certainly agree on these points, but what's so concerning is the continued level of short interest. I'm ball-parking these estimates but at present the trailing PE must be in the mid/ teens. The shorts have to be calculating that the 2 elements you cited are going to take a big bite out of earnings and drive the price lower. My guess is $30 mil and if that happens a mid teens forward PE will halve the stock price again. Ugly, but numbers are numbers and the company has been awful quiet for months in terms of announcing any new business.
No need for cover, it's all in the short numbers. When they've piled on as they have here 90% of the time they're right. On the rare occasions when they've gotten some bad information they have to unwind these huge positions and drive the price way up.
At this level probably the best play for next week is a straddle if the pricing is right. By the 7th it's either be single digits or $20 IMHO. We'll see
What's weird here is they've better than halved the price and haven't given up. That's either excessive greed or some absolute certainties.
That seems to be the extent of any good news. Guess you have to take what you can get.
Feb 6th can't come fast enough so we can get this torture over with and and find a price level. With the short position still in the 40% range that'll appear to be a much lower price than today, but if by some miracle something good happens it'll cause panic on the short side.
Thank you cyoung. I bought some OPK based on that insider confidence and that they have revenues and profits, albeit modest. Rather take a chance with them than this snake oil company.
According to the insider info displayed here on yahoo, the last trade was catlin, who exercised and immediately sold last June.
And Marrucci and other officers hold no stock. I can't post what doesn't exist, so if you have contray information please post it or cite source.
Todays Street piece brought back some painful memories and highlighted the similarities between these 2.
Dendreon's prostrate cancer "cure" had many setbacks in the approval process, but ultimately got approved having gotten over the "statistically significant" hurdle of 5% life expectancy improvement and other requirements in their terminally ill test population. Lives were extended 3 months in this terribly sick group.
Drug got approved, stock soared to $60+ and then reality settled in. Many insurers wouldn't pay $100K to extend a life 3 months and over time it turned out 3 months was the magic number, even in the earlier diagnosed and far healthier group after approval and marketing. Dedreon no longer exists.
Celldex's early results are similar to Dedreon, coincidence #1.
But by far, the most convicing evidence and "coincidence" #2 is insider holdings. Dedreons insiders sold their options as soon as they were able to exercise them and when the company failed they had no skin in the game. Now look at Celldex's insiders. They're holding nearly nothing. Just taking huge comp packages and selling any stock that they get via options almost immediately. I don't think Marrucci holds a single share.
Does this tell you anything?
30 consecutive days below $1 and you get a notice. Company must issue PR that they're on notice of delisting. SYMX is days away.
Once notified the company has 6 months to get stock price above $1.
It's all nonsense. And in fact, for sinking ships such as these, not being listed can be an advantage. Out of sight out of mind.
Of course these egotistical morons will do as most others have and spend a bundle on legal fees to do a 20 for one reverse split bringing the stock price to $10 to stay listed. And that's when the smart shorts appear. With $9.50 of air under it it's a much better short than when it's in the pennies. Then within a year they'll have pushed it below $1 again.
Agree the market is killing everything that got ahead of itself, but this one has more trouble than having gotten ahead of its prior value. Their growth slowed and stopped late last year and it'd appear they'll guide to seriously reduced numbers for 2016.
Their customer base is banks ( not good), they sell in dollars ( terrible) and the space they operate in is very overcrowded. To make matters worse, this acquisition will be a drag for a year or two.
I actually got short again and predict single digits before earning and as low #$%$ after. At the moment, yes, it's easy to be short anywhere with the markets tanking, but this one's been signaling disaster for the past 6 months.
Editorially, the world governments have run out of tools to steady these markets and are now a huge part of the problem with their debt so high. The next credit crisis could be sovereign.