I guess some thought they would take away $20 billion. So it is twice as good news. Amazon should double for the news.
The article that gets me is the one that says 14% of Amazon's revenue may come from AWS and it is just starting. Amazon has been doing it for many years, so that is wrong. CRM has been doing cloud source its whole life has the biggest percentage of the whole market and has a margin of 1% or less. How is it great that a zero margin business is going to be even bigger in Amazon's future. I liked the idea that AWS allowed for double duty on Amazon's server farms. But for Amazon to spend money on additional infastructure for a losing business seems pointless. They are a retail company that sells goods better than everybody else.
Companies pay what companies pay for office software. If Adobe can charge more they will. It is a great margin. Selling individual components to the masses at $200 a piece worked well. Selling all 6 pieces for $20 a month will yield $240 a year. Figure that the majority of owners only want one piece, not all 6. So sure they are giving up on $1000 in sales to make $240. In reality they are giving up $400 in sales once every 5 years to get $240 a year. A business will be swayed by the argument that now any user can access all functions.
I came from a corporate culture where IT limited what software was on what PC because of licensing costs. One company I worked at had 2 central PCs with all available tools, that anybody could use, but at their desks was more limited capabilities. Some licences cost $1000 a year, can't give it to everybody, if only used 20 minutes a week.
I think Adobe is doing a good job making money. But I think in the end they will get out of the web business with HTML5 picking up steam.
I think PDF is so easy for other entrants that all they will see is licensing fees from Microsoft as it is built into office.
I think Adobe's only future is graphics and marketing.
I know it is an exaggeration, but it seems like Amazon ha s anew announcement 3 to 4 days a week. VS Apple which will release details 3 to 4 times a year. Most companies I follow I don't see this kind of information. My question is it because Jeff wants to be open with shareholders, or is he trying to see what gets interest. Or is it because the retail giant is in 4 different categories and therefore produces 4 times the innovation.
I hate the valuation of this company but for options traders expect 395 end of week. But the fair value for this company based on sales and growth is a lot closer to $100 per share.
That would be a 19% growth rate for 8 straight years. Yeah I think they could do it. But that also means that they are currently priced to your expectations. If you said 55, I might have reason to think this stock will be fairly valued higher in 8 years. But in all honesty who knows where this company will be in 8 years. Probably selling burritos in 3000 stores. I just think the price got ahead of itself. Will it trade flat for a year, or contract some.
If it just started last week, is that much of a test? A single day to evaluate success or failure. No wonder Amazon has 3 billion in debt, they only do a cursory analysis between acquisitions. Maybe it would make sense to stop financing growth with debt when the company is already doing 10 billion in sales. How large does Jeff need to be before he destroys a good idea.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Cramer is a contrarian. Everyday he says buy or sell based on the market movement. If it is up he says you should take profits. If it is down he says you should buy on the opportunity. He does the same thing for individual stocks. It would be informative if he had more than a 1 day time frame.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I agree there are some bubble stocks also known as Momentum stocks. But look at a few of the largest market cap companies and you will see a PE of 12 or 13. I keep hearing that it is not a bubble compared to historic PE levels. That is simplified. PE ratio always expand before capitulation and we have a 2% GDP growth rate not 4 or 5% when we last saw PE ratio at these levels. That is my worry. We have abismal growth and a huge valuation. These stocks can't justify the price, unless you are assume there will be no incidents for 10 years. And then we should see the prices stagnate for the entire 10 years.
Amazon will see 400. Because they figured out a secret. If they never report a profit they will never have to meet an expectation.
Interesting analysis. But I think this company hits 560 before 500. It is a good buy here.
I bought at 480. I am afraid to buy more. I have a sell order in at 559.
Not parabolic yet. Could easily go 50 more points without a hicup. But if we cross 600 before January I would sell.
Why not buy it 2 weeks ago when it was 100 pts cheaper. Now you are waiting for the same price it was not that long ago. It could be months, years, or never.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
It has a classic triple top, but a rollover may be at 530 in 4 weeks. And then the 30% drop that takes 4 months. Don't assume the chart is stagnant. The moving average is definitely going to be a lot higher in a few weeks.
Revenues are growing slower. Which means that even if they can flip that switch they will have to trade sideways for 10 years to justify this market cap. And once they are big enough, yes then they can flip the switch. But if you chart the revenue growth it is an almost straight line for the last three years. 41% 31% 22% Which means next years growth may be a paltry 12%. Imagine how long it will take to justify the market capitalization if growth slows to 12%.
I agree 2% is not a lot. The only problem is nobody holding this stock wants to sell when they think it will go to $1000. I wish I could run my business like Amazon. It would be so easy to get customers if I sold at a loss every year. Since I am a small business owner it is easy for me to grow at 20% a year and still make a few dollars. But yes I have a very small margin unlike Ebay which also grows almost 20% a year.
By the way Amazon is fairly priced if you can assume a 22% growth rate for 10 years. That would make it as large as Walmart in sales is today. And Walmart has a market cap 50% higher. So this stock could move another 50% between now and 2023. And it would still be fairly valued.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Bezos would be the first to tell you that he tries hard to lose money every quarter for growth. I think that is great for consumers like us. But in the end it may not work out well. I have no corporate loyalty online. I always compare prices with three or four other sites. And just pick the cheapest.
I think we could easily see 480 by Wednesday. And yes it has to give some back. Who is going to hold onto earnings like this at 500. People will want to take some profits. I think it might be able to reach 520 by next quarter. But that is very little gain. Much more likely that money can be made else where at this level.
It does not matter. With such a small float it can only go up. MM have to buy the stocks that go up. This will never fall.
It has nothing to do with the 2% short. There is no short squeeze option because there is just such a small short position.
I wish the puppets on here would stop talking about short squeeze.