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American Capital, Ltd. Message Board

its_not_my_business_but 133 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 29, 2014 11:35 AM Member since: Sep 28, 1998
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  • Reply to

    ACAS as a Buyout Candidate

    by spokanimalbj Aug 25, 2014 1:49 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 29, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    Eric Holder's campaign of death and destruction on Bank of America ..

    Why is it that people of your POV feel the need to do that? It's like a Turrets Tick or something.

    I think it's sickness bordering on a personality disorder actually. - NMB

  • Reply to

    ACAS as a Buyout Candidate

    by spokanimalbj Aug 25, 2014 1:49 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 29, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    spok re: "them shooting for something north of $20 or $25 just because their incentive options are out of the money or whatever. "

    I don't think so either .. it's more fundamental for me .. the company is worth more than the PPS .. and there is zero chance that mgmt would sell for only NAV.

    NMB

  • its_not_my_business_but by its_not_my_business_but Aug 27, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    ACEI launch? Maybe at $250M-$300M .. placed privately

    CLO-2014-2 .. We know they have the Sr notes on the books .. why not roll a CLO while we're at it .. $600M-$1B in size?

    ACE3 closes?

    Board Approves Reorg

    On the books Sr Notes top $2B, becoming the largest business unit of ACAS .. the size of ECAS and ACAM combined.

    NMB

  • Reply to

    ACAS as a Buyout Candidate

    by spokanimalbj Aug 25, 2014 1:49 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 27, 2014 8:36 AM Flag

    Mgmt holds a load of shares .. some even more than me :-) ... so I'm sure it's a combo of both, but they have no need, desire (or shareholder support that I can tell) to sell the stock on the cheap.

    NMB

  • Reply to

    ACAS as a Buyout Candidate

    by spokanimalbj Aug 25, 2014 1:49 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 27, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    B&W .. nicely done! :-) - NMB

  • Reply to

    ACAS as a Buyout Candidate

    by spokanimalbj Aug 25, 2014 1:49 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 26, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    spok re: "I would be happy to see this company go out the door at 19 or 20, given the headwinds. "

    Not in the least .. and doesn't matter as management and the board would never go for selling ACAS at NAV.

    NMB

  • Reply to

    ACAS as a Buyout Candidate

    by spokanimalbj Aug 25, 2014 1:49 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 26, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    " and the message boards that descend into bickering become worthless to those wanting to make money and not waste their time"

    Agree 100%.

    NMB

  • Reply to

    ACAS as a Buyout Candidate

    by spokanimalbj Aug 25, 2014 1:49 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 26, 2014 8:08 AM Flag

    B&W .. re: cash sale ..

    If a suitor came along, they wouldn't be buying ACAS with cash .. but stock that has a PPS/NAV of likely ~2:1 or better. That way the buyer could offer ACAS say 1.3x-1.5x NAV (a historicaly valuation for ACAS) .. or say $26-$30 and still be accreative to their NAV (since they are buying it below their PPS/NAV valuation).

    So, you wouldn't have a tax headache .. your basis in ACAS would just get converted into a basis for the new stock.

    Those are the numbers that are in the possible sweet-spot, IMO. Any higher valuation would be very unlikely and any lower offer not taken seriously.

    NMB

  • Reply to

    ACAS as a Buyout Candidate

    by spokanimalbj Aug 25, 2014 1:49 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 25, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    Legal liability for fraud is much stickier than NOL's though a purchase. Keeping the NOL's for an acquirer has more than trivial hurdles as I understand it.

    NMB

  • Reply to

    Back of envelope NOI projection for ACAS

    by donedealer Aug 9, 2014 9:10 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 22, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    Don .. agree it's a combo of both ..

    Looking forward to seeing "ACAM" in my portfolio list :-)

    NMB

  • Reply to

    Back of envelope NOI projection for ACAS

    by donedealer Aug 9, 2014 9:10 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 22, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    re: ARES as comparison ..

    " Distributable earnings were $48.6 million; distributable earnings after tax were $0.18 per common unit
    Declared second quarter distribution of $0.18 per common unit " ... selling for $17.71 ..

    That's a 4% div/PPS valuation. Based upon ACAM's payout run-rate, that would 2x it's current valuation on ACAS's books. :-)

    NMB

  • Reply to

    ACSF doesnt move

    by malagasysloth Aug 19, 2014 3:53 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 21, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    sloth .. don't worry about it "never moving". It's paying an 8% dividend that is interest-rate hedged.

    The time for the share price to rise is in a fluctuating/rising rate environment. Just be happy to accumulate it at a nice discount to NAV for the time being.

    NMB

  • Reply to

    Zacks madness

    by gazurmus Aug 20, 2014 10:22 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 21, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    I have never, ever taken anything from Zachs. It's just teenaged kids in India reading press releases and writing it in paragraph form.

    NMB

  • Reply to

    Back of envelope NOI projection for ACAS

    by donedealer Aug 9, 2014 9:10 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 20, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    Allen - re: 10k ACAM

    Thanks! Missed that!

    Looking at the Cash Flow from Operations in 2013, $106M backs out app/dep and stock based comp, etc ... you can see what they backed out).

    In the sections below, you can see where they invested some of that free cash flow and used financing to seed the CLO and ACSF.

    Also you will see that ACAM is actually holding assets .. CLO equity, ACSF shares .. so to the point of the discussion, they are retaining cash-flow for seed money for investment expansion as well as using their LOC's to purchase pools of assets.

    NMB

  • Reply to

    Question about investment...

    by thewinerack Aug 18, 2014 11:53 AM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 19, 2014 1:50 PM Flag

    Actually, one could see a flight from mREIT's to ACSF in a rising rate environment. - NMB

  • Reply to

    Question about investment...

    by thewinerack Aug 18, 2014 11:53 AM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 19, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    I have no clue as to the credit line that FSBR has .. but ACSF's is very attractive for its purpose.

    Again .. I do not see a sub-NAV in ACSF's future .. though I would not be surprized to see a bond, preferred or CLO offering from ACSF directly.

    The key here is that floating rate notes have little short term value with rates at historic lows and stable. Just wait until rates start to tick-up and ACSF will attract those looking for interest-rate indexed income and boost ACSF above NAV .. THEN they will hit the capital markets with an equity raise.

    Look at MTGE, AGNC ... no 2nd's below NAV (but we HAVE ween debt and preferreds). ACSF is no different.

    NMB

  • Reply to

    Question about investment...

    by thewinerack Aug 18, 2014 11:53 AM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 19, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    Blankie .. FSFR cancelled their conf call too on the same day as the 2nd sale.

    The only time ACAS did an issue below NAV was during their financial woes and both time it allowed ACAS to get out of a hole.

    I can't imagine them asking the shareholders for that authority without a similar impending circumstance or an acquisition opportunity that would be highly accretive.

    Wow .. they offered 22M+ shares at a 20% discount when the outstanding voting shares was mid 6M.

    That IS quite a hit to shareholders.

    NMB

  • Reply to

    Question about investment...

    by thewinerack Aug 18, 2014 11:53 AM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 19, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    I don't think ACSF would ask for that ability .. I think they would more likely offer preferred shares or something, or roll a CLO or offer fixed rate bonds. There are a lot of options they have beyond a 2nd below NAV.

    When you say " The FSFR holders got diluted significantly." .. what % increase of the share base was the offering and at what discount to NAV?

    NMB

  • Reply to

    Back of envelope NOI projection for ACAS

    by donedealer Aug 9, 2014 9:10 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 18, 2014 11:40 PM Flag

    PS .. but my thesis is that ACAM (and ECAS for that matter) are undervalued on ACAS's books .. and they need be due to the "for sale" valuation requirements of a BDC and that based on their businesses, prospects, and cash they are spinning out to ACAS .. they are showing they would be higher valued if on their own.

    NMB

  • Reply to

    Back of envelope NOI projection for ACAS

    by donedealer Aug 9, 2014 9:10 PM
    its_not_my_business_but its_not_my_business_but Aug 18, 2014 11:36 PM Flag

    Don ... "ACAM pays 11% but that is 100% of earnings. You appear to be more focused on dividends which can be an apples to orange comparison rather than earnings yield which is more of an apples to apples comparison."

    It would be awesome if you would share how you know that ACAM's dividend is 100% of earnings. I do not believe that has been released (but I could have missed it certainly).

    2nd, I'm not focused on dividends .. but rather taking what little evidence we have about ACAM (AUM, dividends paid to ACAS, etc) and try to use that as a proxy for earnings and compare to others by both P/E as well as dividends .. but as you say .. AUM, AUM growth, etc will be key as well.

    NMB

ACAS
15.49+0.03(+0.19%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

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