Eric Holder's campaign of death and destruction on Bank of America ..
Why is it that people of your POV feel the need to do that? It's like a Turrets Tick or something.
I think it's sickness bordering on a personality disorder actually. - NMB
spok re: "them shooting for something north of $20 or $25 just because their incentive options are out of the money or whatever. "
I don't think so either .. it's more fundamental for me .. the company is worth more than the PPS .. and there is zero chance that mgmt would sell for only NAV.
ACEI launch? Maybe at $250M-$300M .. placed privately
CLO-2014-2 .. We know they have the Sr notes on the books .. why not roll a CLO while we're at it .. $600M-$1B in size?
Board Approves Reorg
On the books Sr Notes top $2B, becoming the largest business unit of ACAS .. the size of ECAS and ACAM combined.
Mgmt holds a load of shares .. some even more than me :-) ... so I'm sure it's a combo of both, but they have no need, desire (or shareholder support that I can tell) to sell the stock on the cheap.
spok re: "I would be happy to see this company go out the door at 19 or 20, given the headwinds. "
Not in the least .. and doesn't matter as management and the board would never go for selling ACAS at NAV.
" and the message boards that descend into bickering become worthless to those wanting to make money and not waste their time"
B&W .. re: cash sale ..
If a suitor came along, they wouldn't be buying ACAS with cash .. but stock that has a PPS/NAV of likely ~2:1 or better. That way the buyer could offer ACAS say 1.3x-1.5x NAV (a historicaly valuation for ACAS) .. or say $26-$30 and still be accreative to their NAV (since they are buying it below their PPS/NAV valuation).
So, you wouldn't have a tax headache .. your basis in ACAS would just get converted into a basis for the new stock.
Those are the numbers that are in the possible sweet-spot, IMO. Any higher valuation would be very unlikely and any lower offer not taken seriously.
Legal liability for fraud is much stickier than NOL's though a purchase. Keeping the NOL's for an acquirer has more than trivial hurdles as I understand it.
Don .. agree it's a combo of both ..
Looking forward to seeing "ACAM" in my portfolio list :-)
re: ARES as comparison ..
" Distributable earnings were $48.6 million; distributable earnings after tax were $0.18 per common unit
Declared second quarter distribution of $0.18 per common unit " ... selling for $17.71 ..
That's a 4% div/PPS valuation. Based upon ACAM's payout run-rate, that would 2x it's current valuation on ACAS's books. :-)
sloth .. don't worry about it "never moving". It's paying an 8% dividend that is interest-rate hedged.
The time for the share price to rise is in a fluctuating/rising rate environment. Just be happy to accumulate it at a nice discount to NAV for the time being.
I have never, ever taken anything from Zachs. It's just teenaged kids in India reading press releases and writing it in paragraph form.
Allen - re: 10k ACAM
Thanks! Missed that!
Looking at the Cash Flow from Operations in 2013, $106M backs out app/dep and stock based comp, etc ... you can see what they backed out).
In the sections below, you can see where they invested some of that free cash flow and used financing to seed the CLO and ACSF.
Also you will see that ACAM is actually holding assets .. CLO equity, ACSF shares .. so to the point of the discussion, they are retaining cash-flow for seed money for investment expansion as well as using their LOC's to purchase pools of assets.
Actually, one could see a flight from mREIT's to ACSF in a rising rate environment. - NMB
I have no clue as to the credit line that FSBR has .. but ACSF's is very attractive for its purpose.
Again .. I do not see a sub-NAV in ACSF's future .. though I would not be surprized to see a bond, preferred or CLO offering from ACSF directly.
The key here is that floating rate notes have little short term value with rates at historic lows and stable. Just wait until rates start to tick-up and ACSF will attract those looking for interest-rate indexed income and boost ACSF above NAV .. THEN they will hit the capital markets with an equity raise.
Look at MTGE, AGNC ... no 2nd's below NAV (but we HAVE ween debt and preferreds). ACSF is no different.
Blankie .. FSFR cancelled their conf call too on the same day as the 2nd sale.
The only time ACAS did an issue below NAV was during their financial woes and both time it allowed ACAS to get out of a hole.
I can't imagine them asking the shareholders for that authority without a similar impending circumstance or an acquisition opportunity that would be highly accretive.
Wow .. they offered 22M+ shares at a 20% discount when the outstanding voting shares was mid 6M.
That IS quite a hit to shareholders.
I don't think ACSF would ask for that ability .. I think they would more likely offer preferred shares or something, or roll a CLO or offer fixed rate bonds. There are a lot of options they have beyond a 2nd below NAV.
When you say " The FSFR holders got diluted significantly." .. what % increase of the share base was the offering and at what discount to NAV?
PS .. but my thesis is that ACAM (and ECAS for that matter) are undervalued on ACAS's books .. and they need be due to the "for sale" valuation requirements of a BDC and that based on their businesses, prospects, and cash they are spinning out to ACAS .. they are showing they would be higher valued if on their own.
Don ... "ACAM pays 11% but that is 100% of earnings. You appear to be more focused on dividends which can be an apples to orange comparison rather than earnings yield which is more of an apples to apples comparison."
It would be awesome if you would share how you know that ACAM's dividend is 100% of earnings. I do not believe that has been released (but I could have missed it certainly).
2nd, I'm not focused on dividends .. but rather taking what little evidence we have about ACAM (AUM, dividends paid to ACAS, etc) and try to use that as a proxy for earnings and compare to others by both P/E as well as dividends .. but as you say .. AUM, AUM growth, etc will be key as well.