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PIMCO Total Return Active ETF Message Board

itsahorserace 878 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Jun 4, 2004
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  • itsahorserace itsahorserace 19 hours ago Flag

    You just can't understand why anyone would be truthful. Ultimately, the truth is the best defense against shorts like you. But respect is earned not bestowed. That is why you get no respect and never will. Every time you spam our board you make the long case. It's simply hopeless for you to do anything but interefere with normal discourse.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace 20 hours ago Flag

    Watch the trading. What Beton says will happen. Then there will be no discussion, he will simply be right.

  • Reply to

    Give a thumbs up if ya think timmy's an idiot troll

    by aany23 Feb 25, 2015 7:33 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 27, 2015 10:10 PM Flag


  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 27, 2015 9:26 PM Flag

    This thinking violates a primary rule of mine, that is, when you don't understand something always look to vested interest -- who gains from this. BM gains nothing from this attack. It would simply be 82mm dollars of pure malice, Unless they were trying to force us to sell to them low. Know anything about that?

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 27, 2015 7:27 PM Flag

    Attacking aany for a puff piece is just considered bad manners on this board. Simply one of the most trusted longs here, .... forever. We encourage sharp thinking, but this was simply a short taunt of his. Old longs here often disagree, but we try to do it with civility, that's all.

  • Reply to

    something is up

    by biodrift Feb 27, 2015 11:35 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 27, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    Picked up my last 6k @2.99. Had to get them under $3 to feel I took short shares. Was ironing a shirt for the low of the day. Oh well, at least I'm well pressed.
    Never heard your thoughts on the clsp short theory. Although I can think of reasons why it doesn't make sense, (eg. They caused their clsp shares to become diluted), at other times it seems to make some sense. I have this ineffable feeling that shorts here hate this company and Cerrone. The guys who set up clsp hate us and extorted us very early in the process. Seems logical that they could be behind this. Clsp guys would have the proper mindset to do this to us through some proxy hedge fund. Regarding the futures, With the manipulation here, by both shorts and MM, I would expect this to drop one cent out of the money on the close date. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Give a thumbs up if ya think timmy's an idiot troll

    by aany23 Feb 25, 2015 7:33 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 27, 2015 7:40 AM Flag


  • One would think that whatever people "think" the diluted price may be, if they actually want to buy a share they're going to have to deal with the fact that there are not that many available. When MM's supply gets short, pps should actually go up. But that's what HFT shorts are for, right; to sell and therefore "provide liquidity" to poor retail. Any real traded demand for the stock should put heavy pressure on price with this low actual float. We'll need new tute blood to rock the boat, and that means to be noticed by someone. Maybe it's our time. Real demand, small float = high Pps. Shorts endlessly manipulating and controlling stock = low pps. Glta

  • Reply to

    Shares flying around, pps, pinned.

    by itsahorserace Feb 26, 2015 5:37 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 26, 2015 9:03 PM Flag

    I really think you've got to get a swing position for this next move. Can't fight the fed, or in this case the shorts. I still think what I said above will probably happen. I think shorts cover to about $3.70. When buyers start to come in and drive it up past $4 they'll start selling the shares they bought at $2.90, stock may still climb for a while to $4.50. When they finally discourage volume maybe in a week or two after the capped pop, then they'll start HFT selling. I don't think this can be stopped unless there is a serious tute buying after phase III data that pushes the price too high for them to bring down. The other thing I think is we will go as high as they believe they are able to bring it down. That depends on how many shares they have accumulated over the last month but have not coverd. When I saw no covering again when all the trading looks like it, they must be holding a mess of shares. Good question is how many shares do they really have to throw at this. If a lot, we'll go higher, if not so many, they'll try to stop us lower. But it's all guessing, not just by me, but by them too. This could easly runaway from them. What the line, "that's why they play the game." Let's play the game and see what happens. If shorts didn't have a plan for later, they would have covered already. They're clearly committed to phase III data and beyond.
    Still it's possible that we have been seeing tute buying with shorts holding it down on little volume. For all of the above to be true, shorts have to have stored up shares. Short interest has been rising. Maybe this is just what it looks like, shorts can't cover and they're simply trying to keep it down. But frankly, it doesn't make much sense and would be totally out of character for them. Let hope tutes make it run, followed by a great buyout offer. Still, don't sell, and they can't succeed. They need us for that. Glta.

  • Don't you just love how we can trade millions of shares and not move the needle. Only SGYP has this unique quality. The only thing you can be sure of is that its not retail. Try this on for a short thesis. Load up shares here but do not cover. Then cover up to your short basis making money the whole way, then ride the wave up, then sell all the shares you bought at $2.90 at $4.50 at a profit to bring it back down. End up where you started making money both ways. I just hate it. But when you can manipulate a stock like this why not?

  • Reply to

    Bunch of Idiots here....

    by hawktim17 Feb 26, 2015 1:02 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 26, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    I have to disagree. Just kidding.

  • Reply to

    Give a thumbs up if ya think timmy's an idiot troll

    by aany23 Feb 25, 2015 7:33 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 26, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    Looks like it's unanimous. Posters like Hawktim are more about disrupting the board than saying anything.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Feb 26, 2015 9:31 AM Flag

    Do you really want to be on the short team fighting time? We may never see the $2's again. As those of you getting older here know, time waits for no man, and certainly won't stop for the shorts.

    As for the trading, it's been all over the place. I'm a pattern recognition guy and when things change, which they are, it takes a little while for new patterns to emerge. All I can say is very little of the trading is what it seems. You really can't tell if buying is buying or short covering on the ask. I think the MM is injecting himself in the process right now more than usual creating a floor for the stock. I think he's reluctant to take it down for shorts, knowing the stock is likely to run soon. The MM may be our friend for the moment. As always, hope the short trade fails miserably. GLTA.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Feb 25, 2015 7:12 PM Flag

    Do Horse a favor and don't sell to these guys under $6.50 if you must sell a trading position. These buffoons can be defeated very easily over time,...simply do "nothing."

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Feb 25, 2015 10:17 AM Flag

    This will be telling of short strategy going forward. Glta

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Feb 24, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    This is like watching the grass grow. Kinda looks like the MM is support at $2.85 - $2.86 and the shorts won't let it go above $2.90 today. I was thinking that someone was buying down there to provide support, but it just kinda looks like a blockade set up low. Think the MM is not willing to break support to the downside with the runup coming on less than big volume And shorts won't let it go up either. Stuck in the middle with you. GLTA

  • Reply to

    New theory on price inaction

    by prxl Feb 23, 2015 10:17 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 24, 2015 9:35 AM Flag

    Biodrift, good to hear your voice. Maybe you can help me with a problem I've been having. Call up shortanalytics on your screen and look at the 18th, 19th, and 20th. Assume that it is showing you the truth. On the 18th short interest is down, volume is up and price is down. On the 19th short interest is down, volume is up and price is AGAIN down, on the 20th, short interest is down, volume is up, and price is DOWN AGAIN. During this time we went down.
    When short interest is down, price always goes up here, but not for the 18th, 19th, and 20th on big volume and low short interest. Very sketchy stuff I know but it doesn't make sense. My only explanation is that someone else sold a lot of shares over those days to bring it down. But who would sell that kind of volume at those prices but a short. But again short interest was down those days, and price kept falling on volume. Looks like they may have gotten help from someone. And who could that be? Clsp? Maybe it was them selling in a way that didn't show up on shortanalytics. Someone sold. Just made me think about the clsp theory again. Thoughts? Your deep think always appreciated. It all starts on the 17th, then gets funny.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Feb 23, 2015 9:47 PM Flag

    "Giving one pair to his son, he cautioned him that flying too near the sun would cause the wax to melt. But Icarus became ecstatic with the ability to fly and forgot his father's warning. The feathers came loose and Icarus plunged to his death in the sea."

  • We're coming down the home stretch. We can now speak in months about the future of this company and buyout. No one sells at $2.87 going into phase III but shorts, period. There basically is no short thesis now but for to shake out weak hands on the CIC pop. That's a thesis? Any port in a storm for the shorts now.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Feb 23, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    Valeant paid 10.1b in cash for Salix. The enterprise value of the deal was $14.5 billion. Valeant picked up over 4 billion of Salix debt in the deal it looks like. That a forty percent premium for a company with no debt like ours. Do I have this wrong. If they had not had debt, they would have been aquired for 14.5 billion.

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