Sometimes I think they play longs with the up moves and shorts with the down moves at $6. When they let it run 15 cents up people start to buy thinking we're going to run to $6.60. When they bring it down 15 cents to $6 the shorts think they have an opportunity to bring it down to $5.50. Either way they're accumulating lots of shares here, so I can't see why they'd stop till the volume slows down.
You could call it a stalemate, but what if they're working In concert to accumulate shares at this level? Then it's just all part of the plan.
Ding, good call. Completely wrong again. How many times do you get to be wrong? Well, I guess your always wrong, that's why you're trapped short.
Good call. You notice how how even though the ask is stacked with a higher price and bigger size, MM's won't take it and pick up small size at lower price. Another interesting trading day.
I think the MM may keep it here as long as he can maintain some volume, and despite slow starts to each day he's managed to pick up a lot of shares. But volume looks like its dropping every day, today for example. When volume drops low enough, they may be inclined to seek the volume that they would get if they would let it start to run a bit. They need to accumulate shares but they also need to make money on the spread. If shorts were to be selling some shares here in an attempt to bring it down or hold it down, I would think the MM would just hang around and suck up their shares. With 500,000 shares in play in the last two week reporting period, there is no doubt that they are in play. To a l easer extent albeit. I guess we wait until they just can't generate any volume bringing it down 15 cents anymore. Then we start up!
Hey Ding, good to have you back. Sorry you had to leave at $5 but we all understand. Glad you still have a job and are feeding the kids. I had this frightful dream of you huddled under an overpass on some deserted highway while it rained heavily clutching a bag and your kids, wife long gone. I guess you guys have figured out that $6 is it. Knowing this, I expect that you will continue to hurl some shares at $6 and bring it down 15 cents for 15 minutes then lose all your shares. I'd say you guys need to add some shares here, but I can see you've already done that. It's a fools game Ding. What,..are you guys on plan D by now? Love to hear your ideas for the post data cover move. I don't hold out much hope for you. If you can't cover at $3.85 when can you? This is all your fault. Just remember, "where ever you go, there you will find yourself." Well, here you are!
I'm not watching today as they accumulate around $6. Too boring. Up and down, up and down. I guess a betting man would ask, "when do we think they will let it run and how far pre data?" Think we see $6.50 pre data, but I'm still looking for a run-up. Hope springs eternal.
I was under the impression that sp333 had already shown anti-inflammatory properties in a phase one trial. Am I off base on this?
Good call today aany. Clearly being controlled by the MM's agenda. But ( and you know I've always got a short theory) I wonder if the MM's don't play the shorts down here a bit and try to suck up their shares while they try to bring it down, by providing them the illusion that what they're doing is working, that is, taking it down. Then, after sucking up lots of short shares, brings it right back up to six where he wants it. I would guess for more of the same on a Friday, but who knows what the whims of the big boys will dictate. Selling our ATM into short covering would be dream for all of us. Short cover pops never last, but funding our secondary would be forever.
Good new Beton. Thanks. Any thoughts on the trading leading up to data release?
I should have said that, but my posts are already too long. As a matter of fact, you raised this point some time ago in a post. It got me thinking and that's why I started reading.
By the way, no one picked up on my great idea of cutting the shorts a deal for our ATM after data release. They could fund our phase III trail. No impact to stock price at all. Also, FYI, IRWD shorts covered over 4 million shares. Think that was the push to $15 we saw. Now it's back to reality over there. Short cover prices never last, that's why my ATM idea is so perfect.
For someone who harps about manipulation, I actually had no intention of implying that an MM holding back in such a situation was corrupt. With the recent talk of MM's on the board, I decided to go back and re-educate myself on their role and function in the marketplace. They get the premium on the spread for the trade, so they definitely like spread and volume, but there is a downside for them (like all things) and that lies in their role of setting the bid and ask. There is simply risk in it for MM's heading into binary events. If they let the price rise too high on the binary event (and they set the price) and it fails, they are exposed to loss. Ergo, it makes sense to me that they would be cautious in the run-up to a binary event. After the binary event happens, and it's positive, let it run. I also know that just because one reads this somewhere, does not necessarily make it true, but it seemed to make sense.
As usual, you are spot on. I just don't know if the MM's will allow this to run before data. If they buy lots of shares at high prices and the data is bad they could end up bag holders. Think this is one reason they're holding us around $6. Let's see if they let us get to $6.50. Clearly, shorts did not make a play today.
I conveyed the wrong impression, Hawk. I, too, think this is largely MM driven now. But the 500,000 new short shares have me wondering about the fall from $6.60. I think tomorrow will tell a lot. If there is a very heavy push to take it down tomorrow morning, I will attribute it to shorts now that I have seen the new numbers. If we go down 10 - 15 cents then bounce up it's probably MM's . But if we keep attacking lower numbers with conviction and, more importantly, see bid/ask stacking, then I'm going to be thinking shorts. Why would they do this? I have given up trying to understand their strategy. MM's just want to make money on the spread. Spreads widen when we fly up and down. One two-cent spread trade is as good as two one cent trades? While those buying from and selling to MM's care about the share price, I don't think MM's care about it at all, excepting the risk they take in setting the market price (why they wouldn't want it to run up before a catalyst, for example).
Think my name says it all. I think of the market as a big horse race that never ends. In the morning you handicap your horses and when the bell rings they're off and running. They run until four o'clock and the bell rings and all the horses freeze. You look at all the horses, see where they are on the track, do your handicapping again, and when the morning bell rings, they're off to the races again. Prersonally, I think it's great fun. To continue the analogy, imagine now that someone runs onto the track and hits your horse in the knee with a lead pipe. Well, that's Tanya Harding stuff. The whole world was in disbelief. That people repeatedly hit my horse (SGYP) with a lead pipe upsets me, and that fact that the world has come to accept this I find apathetic. What's more, I respect brilliant trading, and aspire to be a good trader myself. I try not to judge others who feel differently but personally, I'm a tick by tick guy who just loves the moment, day and the race.
Aany, I watched the close and the tutes tried to bring it back up to close at an even $6, but someone kept throwing shares at it in the last three minutes to keep it below. Think our MM got caught off guard by a last minute short move. Shorts will make a play tomorrow morning I reason, but I'm hoping they get rebuffed by our MM. If I were the long MM, I'd let the shorts bring it down, pick up all their shares, then run it back up to $6, and laugh all night long. I like to think we'll hold six by the end of the day. Wonder how much those 500,000 short shares had to do with our drop from $6.60. Remember, they recycle their shares to magnify effect. I'd love to see the shorts bounce off of the high fives three times like they bounced off $5 three times. All at tremendous cost to them. I keep trying to think like the shorts, but nothing they do is making sense to me. Forget about what's good for me, I want this data to rock just to crush them. Think it was biodrift that called this right.