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PIMCO Total Return Active ETF Message Board

itsahorserace 192 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Jun 4, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Do you think shorts may.....

    by commonsenseareus Dec 17, 2014 7:34 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace 5 hours ago Flag

    No, "load up" as I'm using it means borrowing more short shares to pound us with.

  • Reply to

    Do you think shorts may.....

    by commonsenseareus Dec 17, 2014 7:34 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace 7 hours ago Flag

    If they load up i would look at the SGYP summary page at 6:00 p.m. If millions of shares trade, is probably them. The numbers fall off the board later in the evening, so looking at 10:00 p.m. may show nothing until the next day. Shorts taking this down this afternoon bodes well for us though. Like I said above, I would want to cover into a higher basis so if I were going to borrow shares I think I would let it run some here. Maybe these guys have finally reached their limit. We're all watching. Everyone has their threshold of pain. Been wrong too many times to predict what a trapped short will do at $3.04. Shorts best days are behind them with the cash raise. If they load up one more time, they will creat the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Getting in below the note holders has to mean something. GLTA.

  • Reply to

    Do you think shorts may.....

    by commonsenseareus Dec 17, 2014 7:34 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace 9 hours ago Flag

    If I were going to add to a short position, I'd let it run up on low volume so I had a higher basis to cover into. I'm watching. News on the 19th shows up after hours on Friday. So we won't know anything until Friday evening. If they don't load up its a buy.

  • Reply to


    by biodrift Dec 16, 2014 12:02 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 16, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    I think size suddenly shows up when we rebalance on triple witching. I totally confess to it being magic to me, but there is no question when you go back and look at a one year chart that those are the days they load up. I can't believe they will add millions here, but if they don't or can't, "buy the dips." I know, sage advise, with this stock. Thnk the warrants issued to management by the company were to make up for evicerating their shares earlier in the raise. Where are my warrants? After the clasp event passes, I will have to come up with a new theory as to why shorts here never cover and relentlessly hold us down. As for people not buying, you've got me. Retail is clearly scared, and we seem to be a black hole that traps momo traders. But the big money is nowhere to be found, and being under $5 may have something to do with that. Not selling. Glta

  • If shorts load up to shake out clasp shares wait for the bringdown and buy, if they don't load up, just buy. Nothing happening until then. As for today, mm lets them bring it down on a down IBB day. When the IBB turns we'll drift back up to $3 again. Unless they load up on the 19th. Anyone willing to bet on if they'll load up some more or not? It's anyones call. Just trying to find the bottom to buy more, and hoping I'm not missing today.

  • Reply to

    short interest up 200k, not much covering

    by brownsfan407 Dec 10, 2014 1:58 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 11, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    19th is triple witching when shorts have borrowed millions of shares traditionally. Go back on a year chart of the company and look for each triple witching day. Check the volume on those days and see the what happens to the share price thereafter. If someone intimates that this is somehow normal rebalancing that happens all the time on triple witching, go look at IRWD's chart, or Mack, or anything and you won't see it. If strange stuff goes on with volume after hours in particular, and big number shows up magically, it has always been shorts loading up to do a bringdown. I have no idea how they do it then or why you see 5mm shares trade down suddenly. I do know that bear raids happen next.
    The question seems to be whether they will load up once again to bring it down hard for clasp share unlock in January or are just trying to hold it here hoping that $2.85 will shake enough shares out on its own. Let's see what happens on the 19th. Hard to predict what such a totally manipulated stock will do. Since shorts control, I try to think like a short, with limited success. GLTA.

  • Reply to

    short interest up 200k, not much covering

    by brownsfan407 Dec 10, 2014 1:58 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 10, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    The added short shares were used to crush our OIC run. I'm with you on seeing what the 19th brings. Should be interesting. I can't believe they will load up again at these prices. Think of what their basis would be! They'd have to cover those shares under $3. On the other hand, our shorts are insane. Stopped trying to call what they do next, just look at what they're doing and try to understand it.

  • Reply to

    I told you all to buy Sucampo.. On fire..

    by dbaaaa Dec 5, 2014 3:03 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 5, 2014 8:11 PM Flag

    Glad to see short interest down and you guys covering. Financing screwed you.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 5, 2014 1:28 AM Flag

    Respect your right not to like the line. Having said that, I got called into my sons elementary school because he brought a pencil embossed with a picture of a witch to class on Halloween. I was perplexed, until they calmly explained to me that the pencil with the witch on it was a "pagan object" and was, therefore, forbidden. Can't quote a famous movie line? Can't bring a pencil with a witch on it to scool at Halloween? Where does it end? Maybe I'm a little touchy after having had to deal with the "thought police" at school. GLTA

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 4, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    Don't usually respond to posts like this, but,...
    Google the quote, "I love the smell of napalm in the morning," and you will find it's a famous quote from the movie Apocalypse Now, by Francis Ford Coppola. Maybe you should drop him a line and tell him his pantheon movie is insensitive, although I'm flattered you thought I made it up myself. Also, if you read the whole quote you may be able to discern what I was actually trying to say, "it smells like victory." Just saying,...

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 4, 2014 12:11 AM Flag

    I have always been in until buyout. It's one of the reasons I picked this company -- it was always the business plan to sell it. The endless manipulation we endure has only convinced me more that my initial position was correct. Retail has a hard time making money chasing the big boys on both sides.
    I will get mine next year. But it does tick me off to see these guys trade with themselves. When I look at the trading day to day, I assume there is no organic volume at all. If you count the shares traded up and down, all of the "up" shares have to be them to make the numbers on short covering work out. We have no organic volume.
    Still waiting for triple witching to pass. I'm not looking for a squeeze, just some real volume on the bid. It would make them raise the price to cover. But with no buying at all they can cover 50k a day HFT style and keep us pinned below $3 at the same time as everyone here has witnessed. Some buying please.

  • Watching shorts cover in slow motion is tough to swallow. One day.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 1, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    I think what clasp shareholders decide to do will have much to do with that. I don't know what CLASP shareholders will do, but if i were a trapped short I'd make a play for 28 million shares. But I'll also be interested in seeing if shorts pick up more shares on triple witching. No shares borrowed, then they've got nothing. With the cash all raised, it's kind of the shorts playing retail and the MM while they HFT cover their way out of this mess.

  • Shorts covered a million shares last month without raising the price. Just think, in only 15 more months they will have covered completely without raising the price! Sure hope the pps doesn't go up before March, 2016.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Nov 28, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    Indiansfan, I'm saying those are the days shorts borrow shares to short us. If they don't borrow any on the 19th, it will be the first time in the last three quarters they haven't. That would be a good sign that they intend to cover in earnest, as they would be unable to throw volume at us to bring us down. Not saying that is a day to buy, but it will be telling of short intentions in the future.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Nov 28, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    Every triple witching day for the last year shorts have loaded up big and pounded us. If they do it again we can expect the same. If they don't, it will mark a true change in our history. All eyes on December 19, 2014. If there is 4-5 million shares traded red on that day lets not argue about it as we have in the past. If not, well, it's the beginning of the end for them. Go look at a one year candle chart of SGYP and put it on "one day." Every red 5 mm day comes on triple witching. If you think this is "rebalancing" and not shorts, go look at any other stock, like IRWD. You won't see it. Even heavily shorted stocks don't have this pattern. Future short intentions will reveal themselves on this day I believe.

  • Reply to

    all have a Happy Thanksgiving...including

    by barfonbroker Nov 26, 2014 5:13 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Nov 26, 2014 5:45 PM Flag

    I'll get on this thread. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

  • "$SGYP closes on the high of the day on decent volume for the day before thanksgiving. interesting." I vote best post of the day!

  • Maybe we should advertise this. Although I have a hard time believing they will leave without making a a play for clasp shares.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Nov 26, 2014 2:21 AM Flag

    For me, the problem with the note conspiracy theory is that you have the shorts going long. I don't think they do that. Further and 80 million hedge bet, doesn't make that much intrinsic sense to me. Finally, I would have to believe that the company put itself in a position to be perpetually shorted, which I have trouble with.
    I don't think shorts need to have been part of the note to still be here. Just think it will take them months to unwind their position. Think it's more likely shorts were working in tandem with a low-ball buyout at $4.50 that failed on financing.
    What future behavior would we look for to buttress that notion?

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