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PIMCO Total Return ETF Message Board

itsahorserace 215 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Jun 4, 2004
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  • Reply to


    by suinibus 6 hours ago
    itsahorserace itsahorserace 4 hours ago Flag

    Nice post jr. Even though Im in till buyout, I couldn't bring myself to sell shares here,..and shorts can't buy them. I've been thinking of the silence of the company regarding the financing. Seems to me, it could be a number of things, but let me mention two.
    First, that the company's burn rate was higher last quarter than this quarter owing to the initial costs of two major phase phase III trials. If we lowered our burn rate for the third quarter to maybe 15 million, although low on cash, we might simply have more cash on hand than we know and don't need it as soon as believed. Also, we could have picked up more ATM cash somewhere along the line to stretch us into end of November after OIC, when raising would certainly be easier than now.
    Or two, that although we have entered into a financing deal, the share price of it has not yet been determined. It could be set on the average of 30 day's trading or any other number of terms. Maybe we can't talk until the share price is fixed and we're trying to wait to fix the price hoping for a higher pps. This may be why, when the company announced it would wait to raise, the shorts sputtered for a day, then went back to holding us down. Perhaps shorts still can't allow the pps share to rise at all until the price of financing is locked in. Just thinking out load again.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Oct 21, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    Take it down, keep it down. That's it! The whole plan. Shhhhhh, Don't tell anyone.

  • Reply to

    Can't believe it, but...

    by biodrift Oct 21, 2014 9:24 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 21, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    Shorts just dumped over 200k shares to keep it below $3.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 20, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    We are the "Kings of KaKa." Thanks for the read Beton.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Oct 20, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    I must say that out trading today is pathetic. Perhaps the most damaging legacy of our endless short Attack is retail's reluctance to buy. Shorts are hanging on here by a thread right now! They are covering in tiny Price channels to hold this on no shares. This is literally all shorts. They are doing all the buying AND the selling. It's so bad it's actually screwing them up. I mean if someone other than a short would buy a share this could really run right now. And we're coming into a secondary drug catalyst!
    BUT WHO WANTS TO SWIM WITH SHARKS? Glad to have Tute support, but we need retail to stop shaking long enough to buy some shares. As Beton likes to say, "they are trying to CONDITION you,.." They might not have broken longs here who tend to trade on intellect, but retail is scared (s)hitless. Get it together retail, we"re in the $2's. Put your "big boy" pants on.

  • Reply to

    Major dilution ahead..

    by hawktim17 Oct 19, 2014 8:14 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 19, 2014 9:27 PM Flag

    Funny thing that Cerrrone is working overseas now and CTRV magically comes up with European money. Wonder where that European money is coming from and who's orchestrating it? Don't tell me your friends that tip you off from local brokerage houses aren't wired into the European markets? Guess you guys are flying blind. Welcome to the real world. And threatening naked short selling just confirms you guys are out of shares for now. Keep covering and maybe you can pick up enough shares to scare us again. Boo! Scared you. Going to cover now?

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 19, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    I follow zero hedge, but missed this gem. These guys are straight out thugs. Even this article only focuses on what some HFT traders do at the close. Here they manipulate all day every day for 18 months at a time. Anybody got news connections that could get someone to write a story on SGYP. Maybe then, the SEC would be forced to move. They could get our shorts on every type of HFT violation that exists. Our guys do it all, all day, all the time. Thanks for the post. If only it were new to me.

  • Reply to


    by indiansfan407 Oct 18, 2014 7:13 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 19, 2014 12:49 AM Flag

    They covered in earnest one day, the 1.4 million share day. Lots of selling that day, so it's hard to tell how many shares they really got. But even using very favorably estimates for them, it would take them about forty days to cover at that rate. Besides, they only did that one day because they were out of shares.
    So, first there is no evidence they are trying hard to get out. Then if they wanted to, it would still take them forty heavy days (1.4) to get out. Which would coincide with any run up to OIC data release, which makes no sense. There is no time now. And no financing news from the company. I refuse to even attempt to say when these guys will be gone. I thought they'd have to cover long before IBS. Wrong. They doubled down. But it's definately starting to look like their going to be here in January and February.
    The company could announce news that could cause a swift and violent cover, but I wouldn't hold your breath. waiting for that here. I'm beginning to think they're in "squish mode" for OIC like for our stunning IBS data release.
    Calling a day or a recent pattern is one thing. Calling what the shorts will do next, well that's something entirely different.
    This is what I do believe. We will raise the cash we need to continue our trials at whatever price. If the trials succeed we will create great value. When the trails are far enough along, someone will offer to buy us. If shorts have not covered yet, they will do so then. With luck, someone else will make and offer and we will get into a small bidding war. Sell for $20 on or before NDA with two positive phase Ii's for OIC and UC with sp333. Glta.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 18, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    Well said! You do "preach" instead of post. Find a "short" church with a podium instead of polluting our board

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 18, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    I strongly disagree. You've got this all wrong. They will be needing "lube" not Plecanatide. But I have a feeling pigs will fly before these guys serve time. My favorite quote come from the CEO of Charles Schwab, "most people are unaware that 95 percent of HFT trades are cancelled. What's up with that?"

  • Reply to

    I've been thinking,..

    by itsahorserace Oct 17, 2014 11:15 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 18, 2014 1:37 AM Flag

    I know what you mean. You don't want to be perceived as naive, but you find yourself constantly amazed. And here it's not just the size of their position but it's duration that strains credulity. I'll be interested, if and when it ever happens, to see just how many shares they can cover per 10 cent move. I'm already sure it's not a fixed ratio. Surprisingly I'm finding the MM actually seems to affect tthis a lot. It appears they need to HFT in a 10 cent range or so, but that the more you cover the more the MM tightens the range until your can't get any shares at all HFT without having to notch up five cents on the range. I think to get a true picture you'll have to average over a time period. This lack of volume is also killing them. It's all so bizarre that I wonder if they might cover more shares into some buying volume than no volume at all because it would take more size on the bid to move it. Strange stuff. Learn everyday here. GL.

  • Reply to

    Lots of traders hoping dead cat bounce to 3..

    by hawktim17 Oct 17, 2014 10:40 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 17, 2014 11:53 PM Flag

    Although I must admit to admiring the individual who wrote your algorithm, your group operates more like the mob than a hedge fund. Probably where you found the Russian programmer who wrote your algorithm. As for the charts you try to paint, they are as illusory as your ability to cover. Extortion is more your style. Things are working out exactly as planned for you guys. 80 million and 18 months to shake out 700k shares. Throw 2 million more shares at it and you may get another 700k. But that will only leave you in deeper. Where is your thesis man? More and more positive data is piling up on you guys, and you keep trying to create fear about the company and its charts. The reality is longs aren't afraid, they just hate you buffoons fumbling around with your giant position. I'm here till buyout. How about you guys?

  • Reply to

    I've been thinking,..

    by itsahorserace Oct 17, 2014 11:15 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 17, 2014 11:26 PM Flag

    The fact that Hawktim just posted, would seem to add veracity to this concern. So if they're not covering now, then what's the short plan, and don't tell me they don't have one. Maybe they intend to pound this down in early January and make a play on the clasp shares. It seemed a remote possibility six months ago, but as they run out of time and options to cover but still refuse to buy, they've got some plan. We should be able to figure it out if you ask me. Guess we'll see next week what their next move is. I understand why no one is posting. This could go a hundred ways next. But more and more I think shorts are staying in past December. What do you do with 16 million short in December? These guys are an endless mystery.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Oct 17, 2014 11:15 PM Flag

    About 4 days ago the shorts ran out of shares. They started intraday covering and worked to hold it down not to bring it down for want of shares. Yesterday they covered more shares than they needed to hold it, which was covering in earnest and they were willing to drive the price up a bit. Made me think they might actually be covering for real for the first time in SGYP history. But when they started this intraday covering, they weren't willing to raise the price to get more than they needed to hold it down. Clearly, the covering yesterday was different, what with 1.4 million volume. When they started to cover in earnest on Thursday, they started the day being able to run it 4 - 5 cents in either direction. They were able to cover a lot doing this. But as the day progressed the 10 cent range the MM was allowing them to trade narrowed until it got to 1 cent up and down. They couldn't cover anymore without raising the price substantially. Friday morning started off pretty much where Thursday ended. The range they were allowed to trade in was small. By the time they got to $2.83 - 2.84 they were down to a cent up and down. The MM simply wouldn't let them cover any more shares without bring the pps up into the 2.90's. So at 2.84 they stopped covering and started bringing it down on very little volume since they had brought it up on little volume. They closed the day with a big shares dump to hold it down on Friday close and used a few of the shares they had accumulated the last three days, Thursday in particular. Next week will indeed be interesting. I'm a little concerned they might have been doing this covering recently, not to get shares to cover, but to build up their shares count to throw a bucket of water on any post conference buying. So although there has been covering of late, and considering that our shorts seem to be making no move to really cover their position, makes me wonder if this most recent accumulation by them is to step on IBS data.

  • Reply to

    Shorts HFT covering.

    by itsahorserace Oct 16, 2014 2:23 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 17, 2014 12:01 AM Flag

    Yeah, I think they can cover about 200k + shares with this kind of churning on a nine cent day. Took it down 3 cents by playing the algorithm at the close on few shares. But what you save on the close you usually lose on the open the next day.
    What they will not be able to handle at all is someone else on the bid. They once again are in total control. Likel some say it could be accumulation with shorts holding it down. Short interest was about 55% today. But to make the moves they were making today on the bid/ask, well many can only be made when you control both the bid and ask. Saw lots of those moves today. Makes me pick short covering. But it's going to take a very long time to cover this way. So, I look for interesting times ahead. Try to learn something every day from the trading. GL

  • Reply to

    Shorts HFT covering.

    by itsahorserace Oct 16, 2014 2:23 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 16, 2014 7:34 PM Flag

    By HFT covering I mean selling at the same time you buy. Could trade a million shares and cover 200k net. They are buying into their own well timed selling. The volume is an illusion. It's possible it's accumulation, but when you watch the bid/ask, it sure looks like its running up an down in a very narrow Chanel. They've been churning this up the last three days. In my opinion, a little organic buying will bust this things wide open.
    I think the European financing for CTRV is particularly disturbing for them. It will take shorts a month to cover like this. I get the feeling longs are still waiting for the other shoe to drop again, but these guys are out of shares until December. SGYP,..the Wild West of baby biotechs. The key is not getting thrown off your horse. GLTA

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Oct 16, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    Would someone please buy some shares to screw up their cover!

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 14, 2014 11:30 PM Flag

    Good thing you guys covered some shares at the close or you wouldn't have any. Also looks like it's very, very difficult to cover any shares. Any thoughts on these things?

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 14, 2014 4:08 PM Flag

    Indiansfan, didn't mean to be rude, but I simply don't follow the warrants. Sorry.

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