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PIMCO Total Return Active ETF Message Board

itsahorserace 196 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Jun 4, 2004
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  • "Buyout," being whispered should really get people thinking about changing their trading patterns here. Who wants to be the guy who sold cheap shares on a 15 cent swing trade and missed a 200% return at buyout. This should really put a damper on swing trading here. Whether buyout happens now or in six months. Clearly safer to hold, and probably more profitable. Short time horizon: months.
    Having shattered all short theses, they have been reduced to "shaking," to cover. But this changes things I think. They may find that if or when they bring it down fifteen cents, no one sells. That would be very bad for shorts. What's more, if they intended to ride the catalyst selling down, dump some shares on it to really drive it down, then cover into all the selling of exasperated longs at the bottom -- as I believe they did -- they are in even bigger trouble. It's most likely that we will sell right after phase III data release from the first or second trial with release dates virtually weeks apart. So it's probably a really bad time to swing. Some people will not be stopped, I understand, but "waves of selling," well,...I wouldn't do it, just bad risk/ reward. Also, we're all basically greedy at heart, and the words "buyout" just make us go, ooooohhhhhh yeahhhhhhh. Don't want to miss buyout! Well let's see. The longer buyout doesn't happen, the more likely that it will happen even sooner from then. I was thinking of swinging some from my trading account, but don't think I'll do it now. Thought we'd start talking buyout in November. Clearly, what do I know. A toast to old longs, "to the beginning of the end." My best. Enjoy the hoops.

  • Reply to

    Strange thought about buyout.

    by itsahorserace Mar 26, 2015 11:38 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 26, 2015 11:50 PM Flag

    Yeah, not the time to swing all your shares for fifteen cents. Good luck to you Bioknow, fellow short quant hater. We will outlast them.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Mar 26, 2015 11:38 PM Flag

    It has occurred to me that with with 60mm shares not converted and thus not part of the float, if shorts were forced to cover at higher levels, into such a low float, that the share price could actually exceed the buyout price for a period. At buyout the shares will immedately convert and we will suddenly be diluted by roughly a third. The problem with this thinking is you have to guess the buyout price correctly to trade it. Still something to keep in the back of your head.
    Also, would love to hear from someone who has more experience than me in trading a buyout. Do you just wait to have the dollars show up in your account? Also, I have heard form some that the price actually goes up after buyout and that you can still trade for days after buyout sometimes at higher prices. Since this doesn't make sense to me, if someone understands this stuff I'm sure I, and other longs, would love to hear a primer on how it should go.
    Finally, I'm a greedy little pig. We've sent out our smoke signal to big pharma that we are thinking about selling. Let's see if anyone sees it. We need more than one company seriously interested in us to really prosper. Bidding war could add $3 - $4 dollars to a deal this size. Would all be gravy. Turn a double into a triple.
    Thanks to all the longs who have held through hell and back. More shakes to come I expect, but I've always written that the only thing that scares shorts is buyout! They're talking buyout. It might even be possible in a wet dream that they have been set up for this. The timing is incredibly bad for shorts what with phase III data
    and all. In all honesty, I thought we'd hear talk of buyout after NDA, not before. My bad. Glta

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Mar 26, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    I have always written that shorts fear nothing but buyout. They've got to be worried about this one. But no one has mentioned that this could be an opening salvo to get other bidders in. We need two guys going after us to really unlock value. Let's see if anyone else is interested in us in the coming month.
    Just watching these guys HFT at $3.10 is fun. Trust me, this one is scaring the #$%$ out of them.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Mar 26, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    Look at the volume and price action. Short nightmare. Does my heart good.

  • Higher highs and higher lows. So it seems.

  • Reply to

    Isn't that special.....

    by hawk25702 Mar 25, 2015 4:01 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 25, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    Even when I know it's coming, it still #$%$ me off every time. Oh well.

  • Reply to

    1005 size on the bid at $4?

    by itsahorserace Mar 25, 2015 10:36 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 25, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    Convincing people not to sell here is like herding cats. Always hate it when these guys play us like a fiddle and people sell into them below their (short) basis, what can you do though, it's a free world. They are unified, we are not. Dictators are always more efficient than democracies. Unfortunately, usually their evil.

  • Reply to

    1005 size on the bid at $4?

    by itsahorserace Mar 25, 2015 10:36 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 25, 2015 11:03 AM Flag

    Well, they took out over 100k at $4 and threw it all back at us to take it to $3.95. Wild stuff. These guys don't want anyone to think its up from here. They really want you to SELL! Actively painting the down move chart.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Mar 25, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    Someone or something is supporting $4 right now. We are levitating. Shorts working hard to HFT down to $3's. It's war at $4. Shorts taking it heavy off the bid. Do we hold $4 or close in $3's like shorts want? Your guess.

  • Reply to

    Short interest up 1.8mm to 16mm

    by itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 4:20 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 25, 2015 12:22 AM Flag

    How many shares do you think these guys covered?

  • Reply to

    Key to share price after first phase 3

    by prxl Mar 24, 2015 11:02 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 25, 2015 12:16 AM Flag

    Sounds right to me. I think our secondary endpoints are important in determining "best in class." But we all know that less diarrhea is the key to success. Just think if we could come in under 10%. Then we could say, "less than ten percent of our patients,....." Further, we would then become indisputably best in class. Phase II CIC was a huge trial, with like 950 participants. With dosing improvements, maybe we can break the magical 10%.

  • Reply to

    Short cover?

    by itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 9:20 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 10:34 PM Flag

    We basically agree. These guys want to pick up some swing trade shares at $4, but their real target is post phase III, not to cover here. Shorts are in for phase III and the profit taking thereafter. And they won't be covering at $5. The real cover isn't here, it's later. I think it a pipe dream to think phase III will blow shorts out, could happen, but unlikely. I just want longs to realize that nothing will be right until these guys are gone, even after phase III. Swing some after phase III if you must, because I think the opportunity will present itself, but hold your core for buyout. It's not over yet, but the clock is running.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 9:20 PM Flag

    Why would shorts work so long and hard and spend so much money trying to keep this down for months waiting to finally cover into all the buying of the phase III run up? Don't shorts cover into selling? And one would expect this to be perhaps the single greatest buying event in SGYP history. Why wait for that time to cover? Short interest will ultimately tell the tale. If they don't cover 6-8 million shares they will shake it out after phase III. May wait until the dog days of summer to do it. Could be nice swing trade if we get over $5.

  • Reply to

    Short interest up 1.8mm to 16mm

    by itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 4:20 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 9:00 PM Flag

    If they didn't think they could do it wouldn't they logically have covered already beginning at $2.50? And shorts don't cover into buying during a runup, they cover into selling. That comes after the runup.

  • Reply to

    Short interest up 1.8mm to 16mm

    by itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 4:20 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 8:05 PM Flag

    Appreciate all the good thinking here. Nice to be able to talk to other longs without short Bashers destroying the thread. I listen to all the old longs. Biodrift, always one of my favorites. Daily short interest was 68% today. Heavy churning. And all right when volume drops. There are two schools of thought right now as I see it, those that believe shorts have covered massively during the last few weeks and those that think they may have been tamping down real buying, and covering intra day to bring us down. I'm leaning toward the tamping down theory, but if they've covered that would be fine too. We need them gone. My current theory is that they're here for phase III, and that means they intend to bring it down later one more time to shake out shares and cover after data. I won't sell to them above their basis which I believe to be somewhere around $4 - 4.50. Weren't those last two million shares bought around $2.86 - $3. That got to hurt the short basis. And they added a million before that down low. How do you cover 3mm shares bought around $3. Well, if you could buy your own shares that would work.

  • Reply to

    Short interest up 1.8mm to 16mm

    by itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 4:20 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    Just hand your shares to yourself by walking from your long position room to your short position room. Don't need to trade them. If you're able to cover your short down low, you could even take the loss on the sale of your shares to yourself. Just thought of that. Shorts don't think the data is bad. This is all trading. I'm not saying this is so, but it would make a lot of things that don't make sense now make sense. I gravitate to ideas that make everything make sense.

  • Reply to

    Short interest up 1.8mm to 16mm

    by itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 4:20 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    Consider the following: If shorts already owned 16 million shares of SGYP, then they could cover into themselves at any price. What they lose on their short they make on their long and visa versa. If you knew you could cover into yourself you would have no fear. People think I'm paranoid, but when things don't make sense, you just got to go deeper. These guys have a hard on for us, and inquiring minds want to know why. Will look for covering next reporting period, but Im not as sure as Beton how the numbers will turn out. People have been saying for over a month that they've been covering, but we haven't seen any yet,

  • Reply to

    Short interest up 1.8mm to 16mm

    by itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 4:20 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    Tried to post this three times and it kept getting deleted. Did you hear me mention a conspiracy? Not.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Mar 24, 2015 4:20 PM Flag

    They did load up.

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