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PIMCO Total Return ETF Message Board

itsahorserace 248 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2014 12:42 AM Member since: Jun 4, 2004
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  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 30, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    Let all the traders play with the price. We have good data! Data trumps all long term. Being patient is much easier with good data behind you. See you at buy out later this year. Congrats longs. Stay long and strong and don't help the shorts by selling the news. We've got another data point in six weeks!

  • Reply to

    So, Bio and beton, financing question for you?

    by brownsfan407 Apr 29, 2014 2:04 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 29, 2014 8:47 PM Flag

    I also like to point out that the date you speak of coincides with the clasp share lock up. Just coincidence?

  • Reply to

    So, Bio and beton, financing question for you?

    by brownsfan407 Apr 29, 2014 2:04 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 29, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    Biodrift, thanks for pointing out that the 50 m from the ATM (8.4 million shares) has yet to be exercised and is not yet money in our pocket. Like your "long term" thinking. When IRWD raised cash recently with their coffers already full I wondered why. Since then, have been reading many articles about getting funded while getting funded is still good. People seem to expect raising funds to get more and more difficult in the future, particularly for small companies like ours. Like IRWD, I suspect that insiders may choose to raise earlier than later.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 29, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    Ding, they did it for you shorts because they know how easily confused you get. Clearly, the strategy is working. Best for you to focus on selling shares to keep the share price down. Stick to what you guys do best. Thank god they didn't talk about "covering," or you guys would have to look the word up

  • But it has been fun watching the shorts get creamed all week trying to keep the price down. Today was another very expensive day for them. Timing just a little off on the bringdown. Three million dollars mistake. Hey, nobody's perfect. Lower and lower basis for shorts, more and more shares to cover.

    All I know, is that with all the moving parts flying around here, you either need to be a genius or lucky to call what's going to happen next. And that's assuming good data. Let me make a bold prediction: if the data is good the price will probably go up. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Good luck longs.

  • Reply to

    Time to let the data speak!

    by itsahorserace Apr 27, 2014 9:12 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 27, 2014 9:17 PM Flag

    Just read that old patent post. They ran that over a year ago. Thoroughly discredited. The bashing begins pre-data. Don't like to tell people what to do, but this would be a good time to stop responding to bashes for a little while. They'll drop off the board if we don't respond. Start a new thread instead if you just can't stand it. I've been there.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Apr 27, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    Whether it be tomorrow night or the night after. The posturing is over. Everyone's set up. We will soon see who had made the right bet, those who have bet against the data or those who have bet on it. Here's to those who see the wisdom in creating and enormous short squeeze by not selling the news. If the next two data points are good, we will be unstoppable. We have had faith in the company's product, now it's time for them to deliver. Good luck longs, and as usual, hope the short trade fails miserably. If the data is good get ready for a barrage of posters that are having problems with it. I suspect some will bear the call sign wm.craigbarnard. Been through this before, it's incredibly annoying. You hit your top line numbers and you'll hear, "can hardly tell the difference between the placebo response and the drug response. I'm a little worried about that. Your thoughts." Ahhhhhhhhhhhh.

  • Reply to

    Linzess

    by shinystyles25 Apr 27, 2014 7:03 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 27, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    Just saw a print version (of a three page add). If we cold avoid the endless "sever diarrhea" warnings it sure would be a plus. But then again, after hearing the warnings on half the advertised drugs out there, I'm afraid to take anything I don't have to. The Enbrel disclaimer is enough to make a grown man squeamish.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 26, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    Gselevator, all longs agree with the above. Have posted it many times, but never hurts to keep it up top during times like these. Appreciate the work you and your team have done researching Plecanitide , but I never hear you mention sp333. What I find is that the more research done by traders such as yourself on one catalyst, Plecanitide for example, the more they become intrigued with the whole story. Sp333 has shown remarkable anti-inflammatory properties. If sp333 works it will transform the profile of the company and the GI market. OIC phase II for sp333 which comes out in four or five weeks, will be a beginning. Anyway, you know I'm trying to get you guys to stick around through OIC, but I think I, or someone more literate, can make a good case on the merits. I won't bore you with the short squeeze rant. My best. By the way, I like many of your calls.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 25, 2014 10:12 PM Flag

    First, hope you're enjoying your vacation. Be grateful for your wife. Mine not only complains about my posting but actually reads some and criticizes them. Imagine the horror of that! Anyway,..

    Yes to everything you say. I think they added another million this week, keeping it down for five days. Not much chance for them to cover and recycle. It's strange, but I feel a strange sense of foreboding in the shorts. I think they know they will not make a successful cover themselves. But I must say again for longs and momo traders, this setup is unique. But you really have to understand our short history to get it. They have to cover this time, so all we need to do to destroy them is to wait until after the second data release to sell.

    Assuming data is good I see it going as follows: First comes the funny part, where no matter how good the data is a million short posters will start "finding problems with the data." Next they will let it run based on volume not price, until the volume slows. Then they will throw some shares they covered going up to bring it down. This will be the big "scare," that will get everyone to sell. They will take it as low as the selling allows and then cover massively into it all. But they have more shares to cover than there are to sell, so I think they end up driving up the price as they finish covering.

    On the other hand, if when they drop it fifty cents and no one starts selling, they will simply be ruined and we will get a three dollar pop. All we have to do is nothing but wait. They have been holding eight million shares trapped for over eight months at costs retail like us can probably not even comprehend. We are coming into a double catalyst a month apart. Buyout could happen after OIC data readout. Possible buyout is the only thing that really scares these guys. They simply can't hold the position any longer and they're set up to close out. We all know what's going to happen and when.

  • Hate to beat a dead horse but,..this short covering event is unique I think. Shorts HAVE TO cover this time and we know exactly when -- after volume drops off after first data release. 1. They missed covering last time and have been paying hefty interest and margin fees holding for this event for over eight months. 2. They have doubled down (2 million shares or more) to bring us down to here for the event. 3. Right after this event, we have another event, then may be bought out. THEY CANT HOLD ANY LONGER. IT WOULD BE SUICIDE. So they must cover 8 - 11 million shares before the second data point afTer which there may be a possible sale. The only thing you have to do to make three bucks is to NOT SELL after data. The data bounce will be small compared to the short cover. The short cover could be the news!

    All of this makes sense for momo traders too. They just have to see the big picture short term. If you fear them, don't try to be the first out, think of their fear and their necessity to cover into no selling and what that will do to the price. Remember they must cover. Usually shorts can time their cover better but the double catalyst is a killer. If you want, sell into some of their covering at a higher price. They will cover before the second data point. Muchlongerthanu, who I respect, points out that technical, computer driven engines will likely call for selling. Maybe so. But right or wrong at least the shorts have a vision and tell their computers what to do. Are we longs to have no vision, and let our computer programs tell us what to do? I'm sorry. Knowing the position the shorts are in and with a second catalyst coming in a month selling just doesn't make sense. It's not the usual set-up. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Everyone soo afraid of the shorts!

    by itsahorserace Apr 25, 2014 12:35 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 25, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    Appreciate the response but I'm referring to selling "after the news" into the short cover. Pending new is just that, pending. As for my faith in message boards, remember, we don't even have a link!

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Apr 25, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    All you have to do is hold the catalyst and shorts are toast. Not like we don't have another one in a month. So what's everyone planning on doing? What Ding wants! At least shorts act together as a unit and increase their strength by so doing. No wonder longs are fodder for them, we can't do a single simple smart move together,.. hold after this catalyst. They move as a block, we move like a bunch of lemmings. Such a perfect opportunity, and we're going to blow it on purpose. Lemmings! That's why I'm in for buyout. Blow the three dollars short squeeze by selling. Shorts work together, longs trying to slit each other's throats. Guess I shouldn't be surprised.

  • Reply to

    So what is the strategy here?

    by hebrewshof Apr 25, 2014 8:31 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 25, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    With two catalyst back to back, short covering and an ATM, wish I could help you. I'll be holding my core position. Buyout possible anytime or in December. I'm in till then.

  • Reply to

    Just Watch, Wait, and

    by jennbass1980 Apr 20, 2014 10:40 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 24, 2014 8:46 PM Flag

    What's the mystery? Are you intimating that sooner or later some actual news might emanate from the company? We all know we'll find out what's happening sooner or later. It would be nice if weren't the last to know, as usual.

  • Reply to

    IRWD poised to beat earnings estimates.

    by itsahorserace Apr 24, 2014 4:59 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 24, 2014 5:42 PM Flag

    Your post epitomizes what I just told people to ignore. Count on you to post it.

  • This is contrary to what some have written on this board. Also share price is over twelve today. Bodes well for the future of SGYP. See article on yahoo summary page for IRWD. All the millions they're spending on marketing this new class of GI drug inures to our benefit. Now the TV ads to create public awareness of the drug. They're doing all the heavy lifting over there. Forget about all this talk about the negative effects of being second to market, if we're best in class, people will simply stop taking Linzess and start taking Plecanitide. That's why being best in class is important. I mean really, trust your instincts as a human being, if you were constipated and needed to take something for it and I said I had two new drugs that worked great but one was better than the other, which would you pick?

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Apr 24, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    Keep selling guys. That's what we want to see. Looks like we're goin into data above your basis.

  • That means Friday could be a big day if things keep going like this. Now that we're above $5 tutes can come in. Can't believe the shorts have lost all the money they spent holding this down. Millions. If people just hold through this catalyst for five weeks, shorts will have no cover. But that may be a bit much to ask for from momo guys. Think momo guys, of the possibility of a giant short squeeze if you hold and what that could do for your share price. And that would walk you right into sp333 data release.

  • Being overwhelmed by volume finally. Don't know who's doing it, but thank you. Maybe tutes want it above five on close of Friday.

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