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PIMCO Total Return ETF Message Board

itsahorserace 216 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Jun 4, 2004
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  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 18, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    Sorry, number two was supposed to be $100,000. #$%$!

  • If you don't have an $80,000,000.00 position in SGYP then you simply have to follow the following process to determine how shorts are feeling now.
    1. Determine exactly how queezy your gut is and just how bad you feel when you look at the PPS. Remember that feeling.
    2. Divide the number of dollars you have invested into $80,000,000.00 and arrive at the dividend. For example, if you had $1,000,000 invested, the dividend would be 800
    3. Now recall how you feel and multiply it by your dividend. For example, if you were to have a $100,000 position you would feel 800 times worse if you were short.
    Now imagine what feeling 800 times worse would actually feel like. I know,.. your puking and the anxiety is like having straps around your chest.
    Whatever you feel, they are feeling it in far higher multiples. It's war. It's meant to be scary.
    But the bottom line is, that the company will get the money they need to finish the research, they will be best in class and sold at a very high price, and we will all make a lot of money. As always, hope the short trade fails miserably.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Sep 18, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    We'll see if they borrow more shares of a hard to borrow stock. Never thought these guys wouldn't find shares if they wanted them. Let's see if shorts load up tomorrow and continue the onslaught on Monday. I've got more dry powder. I am I'm going to catch the low here with some shares. This chart pattern is entirely different from the last two days. Next couple of weeks should be interesting. These are kamikaze shorts. Going down with the plane in the vain hope that they will win the war. Didn't work for the Japanese in WWII. But you have to respect their bravery in sacrificing themselves for the hope of some small success. Good luck longs. Keep your powder dry.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 17, 2014 10:26 PM Flag

    I have to disagree gentlemen. Start with a faulty premise and you can prove anything. The premise here is that the marketplace sets the fair value and then you move on. That is not the case here. The market is not setting the price, we are being manipulated, with a very small float, buy a couple of HFT trading hedge funds who are trying to cover. What they are doing is, as you all know, illegal for a reason. That they do it for sure is evidenced in biodrifts article posted recently. It's just about getting caught or not and paying a fine. As for the demand side argument, I believe that this constant manipulation and total suppression of our last major catalyst, and endless bear raids has had a chilling effect on retail demand. Even old longs don't know if they're "going to bring it down some more." For Chartists, who seems to dominate swing traders, well our chart looks like #$%$. We are NOT operating within the confines of a demand economy here. Without a fair marketplace, there can be no fair market price. Therefore the price is not a function of demand failure but rather selling manipulation. Watch what happens to demand for SGYP when the shorts cover. That said, I do believe our volume is pathetic. There is no "fair market" here with 17 million short shares trapped. And any argument based on there being a fair market fails for me as a result. It's more like war. GLTA.

  • Reply to

    bioknow is short

    by stallionitaliano26 Sep 17, 2014 12:40 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 17, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    No need to respond. As we all know, it just keeps the post on top.

  • Reply to

    About pattern recognition.

    by itsahorserace Sep 16, 2014 4:57 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 17, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    You think it might be some short HFT covering? That weird sawtooth chart pattern has got me thinking. Also need to watch out for triple witching. That's when they've borrowed shares previously. Your thoughts? As biodrift mentioned, the company only need 125,000 shares a day. I think it's at least possible. But I'm probably getting ahead of myself here.

  • Reply to

    About pattern recognition.

    by itsahorserace Sep 16, 2014 4:57 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 17, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    Looks like some of the ATM is being filled to me. And they're slowly walking it up as they do it. This is the second day of this now. I'm definitely beginning to think that that is why the shorts changed their strategy and brought us down hard with their remaining shares. Not because they knew the raise was coming. I think this is bad news for shorts. They saw us filling the ATM at $3.70 - 3.90. If people see the uptrend they might just start buying again. That would help. We may not be going down anymore.

  • Reply to


    by indiansfan407 Sep 16, 2014 7:42 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 16, 2014 8:37 PM Flag

    Indiansfan, unfortunately still sick, but thanks for asking. In answer to your question, I can only say that I don't know. If anyone else purports to know the PPS, immediately discount them as a charlatan. The longs here are a pretty savvy bunch though. You know the names, aany, Betonbio, biodrift, Bioknow. I'd do what they're doing. As for buying here, I just did. I don't think you can go wrong. It may drop a bit, but at $4 you'll be looking like a genius. I'd just watch it close, as it appears you are, and average down in increments. That's the way I'm playing it right now. Best of luck.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Sep 16, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    I believe biodrift is right. I have seen today's pattern before, at Christmas and when we were last at $6. Both times we raised. We raised cash today at $3.30. They kicked it up in morning and then we entered that strange sawtooth pattern of accumulation. They didn't bring it down because they're not shorts, but they took all buying today. Attribution to biodrift for realizing that we are filling some to push off the raise and keep us cash flow neutral so we can raise later under better conditions. I could be mistaken, but the pattern is undeniable. This may be why shorts decided to bring it down again days ago. They are trying to punish us for filling the ATM to buy time. IMHO this very bad for shorts. They are #$%$ off. Clearly, if they could cover they would. The longer the timeline for the raise, the more precarious their position becomes. Thanks biodrift for your deep think. Between us all, I think we're starting to get the picture. Absent a loan, this is the best way to screw the shorts, so I'm in. Just thinking out load again.

  • Reply to

    interesting read

    by biodrift Sep 16, 2014 11:38 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 16, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    Great article.

  • Reply to

    WOW! 70% of yesterday's volume was short selling!

    by bioknow Sep 16, 2014 10:54 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 16, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Bioknow, thanks for the breakdown. I find posts like this incredibly supportive for longs. By constantly bringing the short story home, they lose their power to generate fear and selling. Knowledge is power. These guys can't prosper in the light. They feed on lies, fear, and illusory chart making. Their arrogance and disdain for "retail" will be their undoing. It leads to mistakes. Manipulation alone will not prevail, sooner or later you have to be right about the position you took, and they are wrong. They are putting off the inevitable by throwing more money at it. And they are being hammered by "retail" that will not buy into their lies and refuse to sell. Keep it up longs. Let's show them what retail is all about.

  • Reply to

    Kinda cute in a very wierd way

    by commonsenseareus Sep 15, 2014 10:44 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 15, 2014 11:33 PM Flag

    Will buy the last of my position when the worm turns. Wonder how many shares they have left. I too wonder how many shares they can cover for profit. All know is that when the worm turns I'm getting the first cheap shares. I'll buy the ask because it won't stay put long.

  • Reply to

    Horse u called this last week

    by aany23 Sep 15, 2014 4:02 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 15, 2014 6:14 PM Flag

    Indiansfan, I've got a cold so will be brief. Shorts have been dumping the last three days to bring us down on no news. Short interest is probably closer to 17 million now. They covered about 130,000 shares on the close, probably to use on us tomorrow. They are clearly setting up to cover into the announcement of a raise. Either they have inside information and know when the raise will hit and have brought it down in anticipation of the event or they know the terms of the raise and they're not favorable to shorts and are trying to bring it down as fast as they can to cover. But holding things down here is clearly a very expensive proposition for them. So we could see some more down side depending on the offering price of the raise. If they announce the raise and shorts pile on it, although they must be pretty light on shares to sell after this onslaught, the cover will come after the post raise bringdown. No covering yet. One final though may be that the raise isn't coming yet.

  • Once in a lifetime opportunity. How often do HFT shorts get trapped with 17 million shares.

  • Reply to

    Gonna be buying here on the cheap!!

    by aany23 Sep 15, 2014 12:35 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 15, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    I always though they would wait until the raise to dump all their remaining shares and drop the price. The fact that they are dumping before the raise is announced makes me think that that the terms of the raise may not be good for them. It's really got me thinking. Whatever news they got they got three days ago. If the terms of the raise were good for them, I think they would have waited. We'll see soon, that's for sure. I'm beginning to think they won't completely cover. They can't.

  • Still have dry powder if this is not done yet. I'm going to catch the bottom this time!

  • Reply to

    Gonna be buying here on the cheap!!

    by aany23 Sep 15, 2014 12:35 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 15, 2014 1:42 PM Flag

    They either know the raise is coming or have decided to get out now before it comes. Three days ago their pattern changed. Started to dump all their shares. Very interesting. I am ready to buy more.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 14, 2014 10:09 PM Flag

    Clearly, you guys have every angle covered. There is simply no way you can lose. Resolve will only take you so far. Sooner or later you actually have to be right.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 14, 2014 8:11 PM Flag

    This is a very funny post. Numbers 1. and 2. aren't even questions. Number 3 seems like a plea. Is short unity fracturing?

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Sep 14, 2014 6:53 PM Flag

    Thanks for the info.

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