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PIMCO Total Return ETF Message Board

itsahorserace 248 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2014 12:42 AM Member since: Jun 4, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Short theory hold water?

    by tcollins108 May 19, 2014 11:07 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace May 21, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    Aany, good summary. I'm always surprised that even some of the bigger traders on pulse seem to have no understanding of the shorts here. Being dumb retail, it's hard to get the point across. I find it interesting that the guys trading a couple hundred thousand shares don't see themselves as "retail." Have yet to see the tutes post anywhere. To each their own.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace May 20, 2014 7:15 PM Flag

    When it's just me venting, I have a tendency to attack shorts. Also, I have a rental condo that I'm trying to renovate. You think it's hard to renovate your house? You ought to try to do it in high rise with approval required to lay floor tile! That's it! The shorts are messing with my condo association. I knew it! Have a good one. Nothing going on around here for a while unless it's extraordinary.

  • Common guys! You've already cleared out the selling here twice. What's the point! Did you pick up all those long shares trapped at $3.70? I've figured out your new thesis: you're bored and don't know what to do with yourself. As my mum used to tell me, "if your bored, read a book and don't get into trouble." Do I really need to phone your mum and tell her what you're doing?

  • Thanks for the best buying opportunity in years. All loaded up for early next year. Expect you guys will still be trying to cover going into buy out. Good luck with that. So funny that they took away your catalyst. Now you can look forward to OIC and phase III CIC followed by buyout. Love your strategy. No one is going to give you guys more money for this ever again. Better marshal you assets closely or this could turn out to be a bloodbath for you guys. Also, thanks for letting us pick up our over allotment. That really helped our cash position.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace May 19, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    Took a while to fill, but finally got them at $3.73. It's time to sit back and relax now for the summer. Very happy at to fill at this level. I'll have to be content with a $4.05 basis.

  • I figure that one day, just by pure luck, something good will happen here. I mean no one has bad luck forever do they? If there is a secondary, will load up one last time, and hold for the long run. I will break even here if it kills me, and it just might. But you can average down in this stock for chump change at this price. Good luck long suffering longs. If they don't dilute, well, we'll all just be pleasantly surprised.

  • Reply to

    Will try to accumulate more this week.

    by itsahorserace May 18, 2014 10:31 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace May 18, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    Envious of your basis. Trying to get mine below $4. Good luck. Good thing I don't post looking for love. As always, long until buyout. Of course we didn't intend to release sp333 data in July. It was just a typo that got corrected. Some people -- born yesterday. All good for our situation. I told you they would have to do something. Two days later, the company releases delay of sp333 data. Oh excuse me, not a delay, just a correction. What do shorts do now? I love it.

  • Reply to

    Will try to accumulate more this week.

    by itsahorserace May 18, 2014 10:31 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace May 18, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    $SGYP typical Friday low volume; if long, go enjoy the day/wknd; pps not going anywhere fast. still waiting for 3.5 buy range. Hold 80k plus shares long. Am I missing something?

  • $3.60 would be acceptable, but $3.50 would be better. Any thoughts on how the conference on Monday may affect share price next week?

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace May 16, 2014 10:21 PM Flag

    In Betons defense, many of his posts are directed at the less sophisticated investors here, including his personal responses. Many will read this thread and benefit. He knows this. To be unaware of our short history would put one at a sever predictive disadvantage. It is good that he laid it out for you and that you are inclined to believe it. I would love to know which fund is doing this to us. Longs here vacillate between being in awe of their HFT trading abilities and deep hatred for their endless total manipulation of our share price.
    Also be aware that our tradable float is lower than many believe. We have something like 28 million shares of the company locked up in clasp. With tutes not selling, longs not selling, 28 million shares of clasp locked up and insider holding millions of shares the tradable float is much lower than it seems. It's a really hard stock to cover into. Attribution to biodrift for his deep think. Nice to have an intelligent long join the conversation. Continue to call it as it as you see it! Already read you on pulse.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace May 16, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    Aany, nice think piece. We pretty much see things the same way most of the time. Not sure bringing it down today makes a whole lot of sense to me with IOC delayed, but they can go for it if they want.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace May 16, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    That's funny. I knew I liked you. Can't think of anything here.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace May 15, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    Looks like the company knows what we know and is changing up. I'll have to think everything through again. The landscape has suddenly changed. First impression is they're forcing the shorts to double down right when a sale is supposed to happen in November or December. The only thing shorts fear is buyout. Let them face their fear! Also will be going into double catalyst release. Always interesting here. No point in taking it down hard now is there? Now we have 15 million shares trapped. No peaceful way to end this. There will be winners and losers. As always, I'm good till buyout. Shorts need to reevaluate entire strategy now. Looks like a long summer ahead for all, both longs and shorts. But they have more money tied up than me.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace May 15, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    Makes sense to me.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace May 15, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    This is the time not to sell. If you do you play right into short hands. The cash raise in January was brilliant on the company's part. Only way to get rid of these shorts is to have cash.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace May 15, 2014 4:17 AM Flag

    Go to a two year chart and overlay the IBB over SGYP chart. Answer will be immediately apparent. Shorts here have had a problem for a while so they have devised a "strategy" to get out. Very "short thinking" to turn defeat into victory, to try to #$%$ victory from the jaws of defeat.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace May 14, 2014 10:56 PM Flag

    Part 2. And the second half after OIC. To be brief (and try not to laugh too hard at that), we must raise the cash on the OIC data release or we will get caught in a dead period, with no news before we need to raise cash, that is before the data read on CIC phase III. This is the big game the shorts are playing. If we don't get the cash with OIC they will simply keep the price down all summer until we finally sell 9 million shares because we couldn't fill our ATM. Despicable but true. So, if you're long, it really makes no difference. Won't affect buyout at all in my opinion. But it will make for a very long summer for longs if they don't. Mind you, there are many varied opportunities available to the company to raise this cash before then at a reasonable price. But for any who think that a cover may be coming, I wouldn't count on it until this issue is resolve. Let's see how sp333 data plays out and if they can get it done. The company knows what's going on this time and how much it might cost them in the short run if they're force to raise cash at short levels. Let's see how they handle the sp333 data release and if they're able to raise the cash. Screw the ATM and do an offering at $5 if you need too. Not all cash raises lead to a lower share price. Have seen m any lead to a pop under the right circumstances. This might be one. Make my day and get is done SGYP. Good luck to all my long friends. Sorry the board has become so unfamiliar.

  • We have a great product for CIC and IBS now. If sp333 works, for OIC AND UC, it will increase our value at buyout from $15 - $18 to $20 - $26 (closer to the higher end I would think). No partnership ever. Buyout, in early to mid 2015. Most likely, after phase three CIC data read out (there will be numerous sp333 data releases prior to this). This will happen, with our without the success of sp333. Just a higher price with it.
    We have serious short problem. We have had one since their first cover failed to launch. 8 million shares trapped at, let's say, $4.60. Cutting right to the chase, they now have about 14 million with a basis I gestimate at $5.20. Trying to cover into a post catalyst selling induced panic won't work for them. They're in much too deep and at way too low a basis. For their strategy to work they must force us to raise cash at their levels.
    We need money to finish all of our trials and/or take us to buyout. How do we know this? They have an ATM. How much money do they need to feel comfortable? They need or want 50 million, coincidentally the exact size of our ATM. They intend to wait us out and or force our hand. This is their ONLY OPTION. Their will be winners and losers here. They will try to keep us below 5.50 before, during and after sp333 OIC data release. If for any reason this stock goes over $5.50 for any extended period AND we are able to raise our cash they will simply be crushed! All of their leverage will be gone. They will no longer exist any event that can happen into which they could cover 14 M shares.
    The company will raise cash when they get to $30m. This gives us six or seven months to solve this problem. The more trials we run, the more cash we burn. Shorts came on hard when we announced starting our second phase III CIC trial. Why? They knew it would increase our cash burn. Company was caught by surprise on the IBS data release by the shorts. Probably expected to raise half the cash

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace May 12, 2014 7:26 PM Flag

    It's the only way to fight HFT shorts that can't cover. Accumulating and holding. Go sp333.

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