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PIMCO Total Return Active ETF Message Board

itsahorserace 195 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2015 11:50 PM Member since: Jun 4, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Huge block trade in afterhours....

    by davemartin8888 Feb 17, 2015 4:17 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 17, 2015 5:07 PM Flag

    Sorry Dave. Didn't mean to be redundant but had an old screen up when I posted. Yeah! I noticed.

  • Im telling you, something's up. If only I could figure out what it was. Short covering or buying? If they just published a daily short interest number, you could figure this all out instantly. But you can't. Just laying back long, watching the action.

  • Reply to

    Shorts are as delusional as the Greeks!

    by itsahorserace Feb 17, 2015 2:03 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 17, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    I liked to smoke short Grey-matter. It gives me that "master of the universe feeling." You know what I'm talking about. Instant arrogance in a puff of smoke.

  • Reply to

    Shorts are as delusional as the Greeks!

    by itsahorserace Feb 17, 2015 2:03 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 17, 2015 2:18 PM Flag

    Rest my delusional case on that post.

  • Love to borrow money, but don't want to pay it back. Both trying to buy more time for a miracle to happen. If they're not covering here, looks like there may be a run on their bank. Put away your pride shorts and go for the bailout. Can't eat pride. Both need a fresh start. Shorts need to cover and Greeks need to go back to the drachma. There will be pain at first, but there is life after years of making bad decisions once you come out the other side.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 17, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    Good question indiansfan. We all wish we knew the answer to that one. If they convert and sell to shorts at $3.11 it will be bad. If they don't, it's probably good.

  • Reply to

    2000 on the bid at $3?

    by itsahorserace Feb 17, 2015 11:38 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 17, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Get it all out Timmy. Just let it all go. We all vent here from time to time. Seems like you've been venting a lot recently. Talk it out, the short doctor is "in'" for the moment.

  • Reply to

    2000 on the bid at $3?

    by itsahorserace Feb 17, 2015 11:38 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 17, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    Someone picked all 2000k up and now there's 800 on the bid at $2.99. This could mean so many things it's simply hard to tell whats really goin on. But stuff is going on big time. Simply can't tell if they're covering or fighting buying. But who is selling 200,000 shares lots here? And then putting 800 on the bid. And how do you accomplish a transaction that big without moving the pps? It's magic!

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Feb 17, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    This is the kind of day you just sit back and try to figure out what's happening I think.

  • Looks like they bought 2/3's of the note offering. Comments.

  • Reply to

    Nice volume out of the gate

    by jaalbers99 Feb 17, 2015 10:07 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 17, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    Shorts put 200 size on $3.05, with 10 on $3.04. That's a hold it down bring it down move. Not a pick up shares move if you ask me.

  • Funny shorts can remember this many year old article, yet can't remember the comparison piece on Linzess.

  • Reply to

    Short trading the last few days.

    by itsahorserace Feb 13, 2015 9:06 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 14, 2015 1:26 AM Flag

    its the total manipulation that attracts my attention. It's like all organic trading is blotted out and you have a rare opportunity to understand how the shorts and Tutes work on a micro level. How they really do it. Not to mention all the head fakes and illusions they try to create, holding your cash raise hostage, popping it before they raise. It's all here. And we have this epic short battle that's reaching a crescendo. Besides, it's all like chess, or a quarterback reading a defense, it's simply "pattern recognition" in numbers. It does feel like sport though when the bell rings in the morning.
    Itsahorserace, glta

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Feb 13, 2015 9:06 PM Flag

    As I've said, with the recent short report out showing they haven't been able to HFT cover at this is level, I've been looking at the bid/ask a little differently. Frankly, I think they've had a bad few days. I could get into detail, but it kind of looks like someone is buying into their selling. I thought earlier it was covering but now we know that it's not. I think this is how shorts lost 500k shares without bringing it down. Hell it went up. Whoever is buying lets them take it down, then stacks the bid and hits the ask taking it back up. Totally messes up their algorithm. It's like someone waits for them to put size on the bid then takes it. I think the 504 on the bid at $2.91 is a wall buyers put up. If you want to take it down you have to pick up 50k shares in a block or go up instead. Since they don't want it above $3, they dutifully bring it back down so the buyer can load up more on cheap shares and bring it back to $2.99 and wait for them to bring it down. And they do wait! This could be a longs dream. I don't know if you call this support or someone is picking up a large position or adding to one. The person on the other side is also HFT trading. Another reason I thought it was them covering initially. If this is going on, shorts won't be able to bleed this many shares for long down here. Bottom line is, if shorts aren't covering here they're getting worked over pretty good right now. And recent evidence would suggest it's not covering. Sooo, this could actually force a cover if it keeps up. Maybe the buying will stop when the position is filled, or maybe someone is starting to slowly squeeze them. A longs wet dream. Hope springs eternal. GLTA.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Feb 12, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    We haven't been below it since. Can shorts stomach adding 500k shares every two weeks to hold it here? Inquiring minds want to know.

  • Reply to

    Tim, post proof to any claim you have made.

    by bioknow Feb 11, 2015 5:37 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 12, 2015 10:03 AM Flag

    Thanks JR.

  • Reply to

    Tim, post proof to any claim you have made.

    by bioknow Feb 11, 2015 5:37 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 11, 2015 10:35 PM Flag

    You guys are being pretty funny arguing with Hawktim. You must be really ticked off. I find you just have to do it every now and then for therapy. It feels great until he replies to you and letting him have the last word is hard. Gotta love the "I'm not selling," long suffering longs here. When the company finally sells, I'll miss all of you.

  • Reply to

    Heavy Weight Support-Support-Support

    by hanskrumbholz Feb 11, 2015 2:18 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 11, 2015 9:32 PM Flag

    This last short interest report was an eye-opener for me. I was really surprised by it. I watch the tick by tick for hours sometime and am to the point where I can say "they'll take one hundred off the ask, seven hundred off the bid and trip the computer down one cent, and have it happen. With the algos running, it's really mathematical the more you watch.
    The problem I'm having is that when the algorithm is bringing it down, it rarely wants to hit the ask (although, sometimes for technical reasons it does to reset the nasdq's computer)and stacks the bid where they buy the least number of shares to the hundred to flip it down. Setting up the size right is just as important as the time ing of the trade.
    But when they cover, unlike bringing it down, they hit the ask all the time. Buys on the ask simply become covering one cent up. So when they bring it down you can SEE SUPPORT hitting the ask. When they're covering you never know if it's them hitting the ask simply to cover one cent up. In effect you become blind to one half of their trading. I saw the ask being hit a lot, but assumed it was them covering. It was buying at market price. So we have been getting more buying than it appeared to me. That's support. looks like someone may have been using the shorts to buy without raising the price. Very bullish. I'm trying to come up with a new short thesis. With clsp shares unlocked, what they're doing isn't making much sense to me now. Other people's theories welcome. I'd pay someone to explain to me what they're doing. Everyone here knows I'm in no rush and am in until buyout. But I still love to watch the trading and understand what's going on. I'm going to outlast these guys no matter what, so it's kind of academic to me. Sure wish I could reasonably figure out what they're going to do next though. Rat brains working overtime, who knows what they'll do next.

  • Reply to

    Occam's Razor

    by itsahorserace Feb 10, 2015 10:13 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 10, 2015 11:02 PM Flag

    Occam's razor doesn't predict what is right or wrong, just that which is more likely to be correct. It allows for the fact, that there may be some complex scheme, but simply argues against it being the better explanation. So all I'm saying is, absent superior information, maybe we should be going with the obvious.
    That they didn't cover during the last reporting period and, instead, added 500k shares is compelling news I think. They are unable to pick up shares HFT covering down here. Considering their daily high short trading %, to be having to add rather than cover must be very disappointing for them. As I have often argued, we are as hard to cover into as we are easy to bring down. Small floats work both ways. And, by design, the conversion shares give them no additional float.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Feb 10, 2015 10:13 PM Flag

    When presented with two theories that explain something, usually the simpler is the better choice. There are many complicated theories out there regarding the shorts. That they are secretly noteholders or clsp holders. Well clsp holders diluted themselves by 40% and note holders could convert it all at $3.11 without adding 500k to their short position at a scary $3 basis. I am more and more being drawn to simplicity of them simply being trapped. Isn't that what Occam's razor would dictate? GLTA.

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