I can't understand what he's talking about. Are shorts "challenged by hedgie and took it," or does he mean us? Rice battering rams? This is obtuse stuff. Maybe some kind of short Ebonics? Maybe they should raise the minimum wage.
They clearly are struggling. No long selling on pull-backs. Buyout rumors playing havoc with their plans. One well-placed buyout rumor post CIC will be their end. No war at $4. If this keeps up, even if they do keep the price down some, they won't have enough shares to do anything post CIC. Don't sell to these guys post CIC on any attempt to bring it down and these guys will finally be toast. Let's do this to them, just for the please and profit. Let's hope self interest aligns with a decision not to sell post CIC. I think longs should be preparing people to fight post CIC to finally win the war, not just a battle to $6. Let's get rid of these guys once and for all. They are unified and that gives them an advantage. If we could get unified, we have the power to finally crush them. The cover would be bigger than any profits that could be made swinging. Go for the gold, go for the short-killer. Don't sell the CIC pop. I hate these guys. Can't we work as one? There is strength in numbers and unity. I realize it's like herding cats, but let's try. Let's make it real hard for them. Don't they deserve it? It's within our power as longs here. You've just got to see it.
Beton, you know I agree with you about what's going on now. I had one cheery thought to add to that, ,what if the two bring downs didn't get them any selling? Might warrant a change in strategy.
I don't trust your second thesis that they have resigned themselves into covering at $6 for a loss. I think they will gamble on buyout taking longer and do their thing after post CIC volume drops. I think they plan on covering much lower later if you know what I mean. Glta
Shorts will work very hard to shake at this point as their existence will depend on it. Longs will have to be strong after CIC to win.
Shorts are in "hunker down" mode. They've gone all defense right now. Clearly, they are more afraid of the price getting away from them than they are of the pps right now. So,..when we don't buy, they don't sell, and volume drops to 450k. But the minute you buy, like on Monday, well,...then you get lots of HFT selling and volume skyrockets. They are like dragging a "sea anchor" around with you. Sorry for the recent rants but the SA Article put me over the top. This passive agressive behavior, laying back and only selling when there is buying, actually makes me more angry than when they bring it down. It shows intent.
Think Ding wrote this one for them. Man! Can they do anything else to try to take this catalyst away? Constant selling, rising short interest, fake articles? And instead of covering after the lost the dilution war on financing, they decide to stay and try to cover after phase III? This is spasm war. We've got BANZAI shorts! Maybe one day we'll find out what was really behind it all. And it never made sense that they would cover into the buying going into phase III. Why stay for phase three when they had months to cover before at very low levels. They could have HFT'd their way out of a lot of this and not added instead. Contrary to popular belief HFT shorts don't like to cover into volume of any kind. They preferer to be in complete control in a low volume situation. Their algorithms are most efficient there. Theoretically, they can cover endlessly by buying the bid and dropping it, Then buying the ask, and raising it, then buying the bid and lowering it, ad nauseam. No, none of this really makes sense, particularly with no short thesIs at all but for "its a me too drug." We keep trying to make sense out of this mess, but always fail. It doesn't make sense with what we know. And it all has nothing to do with the drug. Not selling a share to these guys ever. Annual meeting now set for Monday June 8th, at 10. Glta.
Sgyp also presents at the TIDES conference on Monday, May 4th, at 11:20 am. And the UBS GLOBAL HEALTH CONFERECE, takes place on May 18 - May 20. The first is a scheduled appearance for us, the second is unknown.
Glad to hear this Biggun. Wondering about what some old longs who have a basis around $5.50 - $6 will do. They are still very red.
Looks like shorts picked up a mess of shares in the morning (300k+) and we're just about to take it down when buying came in. Ha! Now they're HFT'ing at $4.32. Also, still think shorts plan a daring bringdown after phase iii, to cover as many shares as they can. I'm not going to swing it because of buyout. Not going to risk making $220,000 on 20k shares purchased at $3 by making $20k on a one dollar swing trade at $5.50. Simply not worth it. Way too scary for me. I will be in when these guys cover, and I will be in for buyout whenever that comes.
Company could drop news on us as the selling starts post CIC data to stop it. Maybe you'll miss a swing, but maybe the shorts will get caught with their pants down on more buyout rumors. Potentially profitable swing, but could lose a fortune on it. Risk reward ratio may be acceptable to trapped shorts for a bringdown, but not an old long in until buyout.
On the CIC "pop" to cover. That means 95 percent of shares would have to come from battle hardened longs dumping out of fear to these guys. Just don't see this happening. This is getting interesting.
I think prxl had our second phase III cic data coming out about three weeks after the first. How much value, if any will be created by that. Would a momo trader trade the first or second catalyst. Do we run at all from the first to the second catalyst? Did I screw up your timeline prxl? Frankly never traded a second phase III, and never so close to the first. Is the second phase III a non-event?
And right when people start to sell the news, wouldn't that be the perfect time drop a little news on them. Just a rumor. Just freeze everyone
Assume that shorts are looking to cover into post CIC data profit taking, with some short bringdown help after volume slows. If the company were to leak some buyout news at precisely that time they could freeze post CIC selling instantly, and maybe even incite some buying. If no one sold post CIC I don't think they could afford to hang around over the summer with buyout staring them down. Simply put, a well timed company buyout shareprice rumor, post CIC data release, could hammer the last nail in this short coffin and force a squeeze.
This is the kind of short behavior that makes you wonder if they've already got 20mm shares in their back pocket to cover into themselves. And if there is "something we don't know," that shorts do, it's something like this, and has nothing to do with the drug or data.
Finally, I'll leave you all with the wonderful conspiracy plot that the shorts have finally been set up by the company to take this fall. One could speculate that this runup has all been orchestrated to use shorts to depress the price while tutes load up at thier expense. The buyout press release was perfectly timed the day after their bringdown. And maybe they stopped selling today and decided to sit because they were feeling like a tool. And maybe the buying stopped because they didn't fight to bring its down. Maybe the company will drop some kind of buyout related news on them right when profit taking is supposed to happen? Maybe it's Karma. After all, we all know this "short thing" is personal. Wouldn't surprise me if the company tried to ruin them in return for the dilution. Very Old Testament.
Very, very hard for an outsider to get inside the short head right now. I always start with the proposition that the shorts are always there actively trying to #$%$ me every moment of every trading day. Shorts are always bringing it down, holding it down, or buying shares to sell to bring you down later. It's that simple here. So if they're not bringing us down, and on this volume, they hardly need to hold us down, they must be accumulating what they can down here while they can. So there are really only two possibilities as I see it: They're accumulating to make a run to bring it under four; or they're accumulating to hold it down later if it runs.
I foolishly thought they would have it below $4 by today. In other words, I thought they would take option one and bring it down. Maybe they're going with option two, maybe something is coming like you feel, and they're accumulating what they can to keep to keep it down later.
Very strange trading today. Have no idea what's going on, but just feels creepy out there today, with no one moving at all, on ultra low volume. Good luck. Love to hear and lean about the options. I'm so conservative, I feel like I'm gambling with a share of common.