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PIMCO Total Return Active ETF Message Board

itsahorserace 190 posts  |  Last Activity: 54 minutes ago Member since: Jun 4, 2004
  • Reply to

    Price Targets

    by longteam555 Dec 19, 2014 8:54 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace 54 minutes ago Flag

    Hank, don't forget Cantor downgraded IRWD to $10. Since then, they've moved up to trying to hold $15, and they are our proxy!

  • Reply to

    Price Targets

    by longteam555 Dec 19, 2014 8:54 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace 18 hours ago Flag

    Great post on clasp. Thanks. Didn't know CLASP shares could opt out before lockup. Definately puts the shares in stronger hands. Still, 22 mm shares out there to be had. Shorts may still make a play. Always waiting for the other shoe to drop around here. Will have to get over it some day. Just not yet.

  • Reply to

    Worth noting.

    by itsahorserace Dec 20, 2014 12:08 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 20, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    Thought this would be a a fairly clear indicator. Not! Guess we'll just have to go back to tried and true indicators, like volume of short posting, to predict the future. Merry Christmas Hank. My best to you and yours.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Dec 20, 2014 12:08 AM Flag

    Although I have been posting that this looks the same as previous trading on triple witching, which has, without fail, boded poorly for near future, I checked my candle chart and noticed that all previous events had been BIG RED CANDLES: THIS CANDLE IS A BIG GREEN ONE. THATS DIFFERENT. I have no idea what it means, but it is different. Maybe shorts just got shares on the ask instead of the bid. Why try to predict the very near future. We'll know soon enough if shorts are going to make one final play for clasp shares. Still going to sit this one out and see. Still over 15mm short shares trapped out there and no real possibility of a squeeze (or a sale for that matter) for six months. They are audacious and have their rat brains working overtime now. Still watching and learning as they try to extricate themselves from this mess.
    I've also been watching IRWD touch $15 repeatedly. I'm beginning to believe that buyout hopes over there are helping to prop the stock up (despite the Cantor downgrade to $10 a month or so ago). If they did sell, that could be wonderful for us. IRWD sells for $22. Would that be a sweet headline or what! Maybe we should be rooting for two buyouts, theirs and then ours. Green candle instead of red? What the hell does that mean? Let the slight of hand show continue.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 19, 2014 10:08 PM Flag

    Hey, a12, yeah, looks like they may have loaded up again. If they did, its to shake out clasp holders. So we shouldn't have long to wait to find out. I'll sit tight until after clasp releases and see if shorts try to take it down one last time before the release. If they do you'll need dry powder, because it will be the opportunity of a lifetime. If they get this to the low $2's I'm buying another 20k shares. Until shorts cover, assume they are in control of the trading. But this will end next year. My feeling is that clasp holders in general are sophisticated. Consider they bought shares in a company that held shares of another company. What kind of investor does that? Not regular retail I think. Think they'll hold. If they do, it will be a short bloodbath. Let's see how it plays out end of January. Good luck longs. Not selling, but looking to buy at the bottom this time.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 19, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    Sure looks like the last three triple witchings to me. Sorry. The way the shares move is magic to me, but it looks identical. Look at IRWD, it was triple witching for them too, they need to rebalance too. They traded a quarter of our volume. Two million after hours was also bad juju. First let me say that I don't know if they've loaded up. But It won't be long until clasp shares unlock and if I was going to bring it down I would do it before they unlock mid January. If this weird volume hadn't happened, I'd say it's a buy right now. With this,...I'm goin to wait now to see if they bring it down for clasp. I'm freeing up cash now. If they do bring this down it will be epic and the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Not long to wait. Just think it's prudent. I also wouldn't look for an immediate reaction from them if they did load up. January maybe.
    The good news is if I'm dead wrong we are goin up right? But with clap the last possible selling event, I'll hold my powder for another month or so. Hope I'm wrong. But this is worrisome. Also, the possibility of aquiring on another bear raid is tempting. Not like I don't have a 100k shares already.

  • Reply to

    Do you think shorts may.....

    by commonsenseareus Dec 17, 2014 7:34 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 18, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    No, "load up" as I'm using it means borrowing more short shares to pound us with.

  • Reply to

    Do you think shorts may.....

    by commonsenseareus Dec 17, 2014 7:34 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 18, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    If they load up i would look at the SGYP summary page at 6:00 p.m. If millions of shares trade, is probably them. The numbers fall off the board later in the evening, so looking at 10:00 p.m. may show nothing until the next day. Shorts taking this down this afternoon bodes well for us though. Like I said above, I would want to cover into a higher basis so if I were going to borrow shares I think I would let it run some here. Maybe these guys have finally reached their limit. We're all watching. Everyone has their threshold of pain. Been wrong too many times to predict what a trapped short will do at $3.04. Shorts best days are behind them with the cash raise. If they load up one more time, they will creat the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Getting in below the note holders has to mean something. GLTA.

  • Reply to

    Do you think shorts may.....

    by commonsenseareus Dec 17, 2014 7:34 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 18, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    If I were going to add to a short position, I'd let it run up on low volume so I had a higher basis to cover into. I'm watching. News on the 19th shows up after hours on Friday. So we won't know anything until Friday evening. If they don't load up its a buy.

  • Reply to


    by biodrift Dec 16, 2014 12:02 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 16, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    I think size suddenly shows up when we rebalance on triple witching. I totally confess to it being magic to me, but there is no question when you go back and look at a one year chart that those are the days they load up. I can't believe they will add millions here, but if they don't or can't, "buy the dips." I know, sage advise, with this stock. Thnk the warrants issued to management by the company were to make up for evicerating their shares earlier in the raise. Where are my warrants? After the clasp event passes, I will have to come up with a new theory as to why shorts here never cover and relentlessly hold us down. As for people not buying, you've got me. Retail is clearly scared, and we seem to be a black hole that traps momo traders. But the big money is nowhere to be found, and being under $5 may have something to do with that. Not selling. Glta

  • If shorts load up to shake out clasp shares wait for the bringdown and buy, if they don't load up, just buy. Nothing happening until then. As for today, mm lets them bring it down on a down IBB day. When the IBB turns we'll drift back up to $3 again. Unless they load up on the 19th. Anyone willing to bet on if they'll load up some more or not? It's anyones call. Just trying to find the bottom to buy more, and hoping I'm not missing today.

  • Reply to

    short interest up 200k, not much covering

    by brownsfan407 Dec 10, 2014 1:58 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 11, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    19th is triple witching when shorts have borrowed millions of shares traditionally. Go back on a year chart of the company and look for each triple witching day. Check the volume on those days and see the what happens to the share price thereafter. If someone intimates that this is somehow normal rebalancing that happens all the time on triple witching, go look at IRWD's chart, or Mack, or anything and you won't see it. If strange stuff goes on with volume after hours in particular, and big number shows up magically, it has always been shorts loading up to do a bringdown. I have no idea how they do it then or why you see 5mm shares trade down suddenly. I do know that bear raids happen next.
    The question seems to be whether they will load up once again to bring it down hard for clasp share unlock in January or are just trying to hold it here hoping that $2.85 will shake enough shares out on its own. Let's see what happens on the 19th. Hard to predict what such a totally manipulated stock will do. Since shorts control, I try to think like a short, with limited success. GLTA.

  • Reply to

    short interest up 200k, not much covering

    by brownsfan407 Dec 10, 2014 1:58 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 10, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    The added short shares were used to crush our OIC run. I'm with you on seeing what the 19th brings. Should be interesting. I can't believe they will load up again at these prices. Think of what their basis would be! They'd have to cover those shares under $3. On the other hand, our shorts are insane. Stopped trying to call what they do next, just look at what they're doing and try to understand it.

  • Reply to

    I told you all to buy Sucampo.. On fire..

    by dbaaaa Dec 5, 2014 3:03 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 5, 2014 8:11 PM Flag

    Glad to see short interest down and you guys covering. Financing screwed you.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 5, 2014 1:28 AM Flag

    Respect your right not to like the line. Having said that, I got called into my sons elementary school because he brought a pencil embossed with a picture of a witch to class on Halloween. I was perplexed, until they calmly explained to me that the pencil with the witch on it was a "pagan object" and was, therefore, forbidden. Can't quote a famous movie line? Can't bring a pencil with a witch on it to scool at Halloween? Where does it end? Maybe I'm a little touchy after having had to deal with the "thought police" at school. GLTA

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 4, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    Don't usually respond to posts like this, but,...
    Google the quote, "I love the smell of napalm in the morning," and you will find it's a famous quote from the movie Apocalypse Now, by Francis Ford Coppola. Maybe you should drop him a line and tell him his pantheon movie is insensitive, although I'm flattered you thought I made it up myself. Also, if you read the whole quote you may be able to discern what I was actually trying to say, "it smells like victory." Just saying,...

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 4, 2014 12:11 AM Flag

    I have always been in until buyout. It's one of the reasons I picked this company -- it was always the business plan to sell it. The endless manipulation we endure has only convinced me more that my initial position was correct. Retail has a hard time making money chasing the big boys on both sides.
    I will get mine next year. But it does tick me off to see these guys trade with themselves. When I look at the trading day to day, I assume there is no organic volume at all. If you count the shares traded up and down, all of the "up" shares have to be them to make the numbers on short covering work out. We have no organic volume.
    Still waiting for triple witching to pass. I'm not looking for a squeeze, just some real volume on the bid. It would make them raise the price to cover. But with no buying at all they can cover 50k a day HFT style and keep us pinned below $3 at the same time as everyone here has witnessed. Some buying please.

  • Watching shorts cover in slow motion is tough to swallow. One day.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Dec 1, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    I think what clasp shareholders decide to do will have much to do with that. I don't know what CLASP shareholders will do, but if i were a trapped short I'd make a play for 28 million shares. But I'll also be interested in seeing if shorts pick up more shares on triple witching. No shares borrowed, then they've got nothing. With the cash all raised, it's kind of the shorts playing retail and the MM while they HFT cover their way out of this mess.

  • Shorts covered a million shares last month without raising the price. Just think, in only 15 more months they will have covered completely without raising the price! Sure hope the pps doesn't go up before March, 2016.

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