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PIMCO Total Return ETF Message Board

itsahorserace 215 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 24, 2014 10:20 PM Member since: Jun 4, 2004
  • It seems to form the core premise for them believing our raise will be dilutive. I use shorts as a leading indicator here since charts are meaningless illusions with them drawing them. Fifteen short aliases can't All be wrong. I agree with them.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 24, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    Now this is a meaniful post. Hate having to figure out what you guys are thinking. So you're betting financing will be dilutive rather than non dilutive, and the lower you force the raise the lower the stock will go, that will induce selling and you can cover and get out on a long runway. This makes sense. I can understand this. I'm always amazed that you guys don't make your case. Although I disagree, I thank you for the lucid moment. Next thing you know you'll be talking about us needing to raise 50 million "shares" instead of fifty million "dollars" and the pps shares dropping to some short dreamland.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 24, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    You guys need to find work that does not involve using the language. Bioknow did not say a press release "was" going to be released tonight. He speculated that if one "were" to be released tonight it would suck for you. I agree. So the point to you is if the press release "we're" to be released tonight would it suck for you or not. You never speak to that. It would also appear that you take no exception to his topic that non dilutive financing is coming. Everyone here experience typos because of iPads and phones, but we all make sense, except for you. Your posts are akin to non sequiturs.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Oct 24, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    MM not cooperating with shorts today. They like to cover while they hang around down here. They are trying to trade in a narrow channel between $2.78 and $2.82, but can't pick up any shares. They are net negative today. See the volume. There is none. MM will give these guys shares at $2.84 - $2.86 but they don't want to go that high. If shorts want to cover some shares they're just going to have to take it up a bit.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 23, 2014 7:59 PM Flag

    Bingo. First phase III CIC in the bag, then decide to stay or not if you haven't already. I wouldn't use price targets, but rather catalyst timing here. I am also of the belief that retail rarely really makes out unless they stay until buyout. The system is biased toward those that wait. The whole valuation system for the drug and company shift in an instant. Buyouts are all about projected earnings of the drug based on size of market and market share, not on the pps. Both Tutes and shorts can manipulate the pps, but if real value is created in a drug, it will only be fully unlocked when sold. People fret about the pps lowing the price of buyout. Most drugs don't have a direct proxy. We do with IRWD. With sp333 we become IRWD + sp333 + best in class. I think it will be pretty easy to figure out what the company is worth, although a deal may take 6 months if there mor than one suitor. Glta

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 23, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    I wouldn't sell prior to buyout, but for those considering not waiting, I think June would be a good month to decide. I say June in part, because I believe by then the PPS will be such that no one will sell for the reason you state.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 23, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    Glad to hear you warn people, but I think these short folk are in for a rude awakening. No one sold at $6.50 last time, and they won't again. We've got really greedy, battle hardened longs here. While I might have sold some at $8.50, I will now be holding my trading position through buyout. Clearly, Dbaaa doesn't understand that knowledge is power. Strategies such as his only work when people don't know what's actually happening, that is, being manipulated by shorts. We've done a good job getting the word out. And with tthe size positionshorts now have, every move they make now is blatantly obvious. My feeling is they're going to assess their position when financing news comes out whenever that is. They will adapt form there. I think things only start to become dangerous for them in March. June 2015 is when longs should decide if they're in for buyout or not.

  • Shorts have re-established their price and position at these levels after beating off another IBS data dump. Status quo restored. Ergo, nothing will change with shorts until something changes. Walking the dog and enjoying the fall colors. Time to sit back and watch the war unfold over the next four months. Shorts still playing "chicken" with the company. Company made its move its the press release saying no financing. Shorts were confused for a day, then decided to keep it down anyway to pressure the raise. It's the company's move again. And doing nothing is a move.

  • Reply to

    Financing

    by suinibus Oct 22, 2014 12:32 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 22, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    Nice post jr. Even though Im in till buyout, I couldn't bring myself to sell shares here,..and shorts can't buy them. I've been thinking of the silence of the company regarding the financing. Seems to me, it could be a number of things, but let me mention two.
    First, that the company's burn rate was higher last quarter than this quarter owing to the initial costs of two major phase phase III trials. If we lowered our burn rate for the third quarter to maybe 15 million, although low on cash, we might simply have more cash on hand than we know and don't need it as soon as believed. Also, we could have picked up more ATM cash somewhere along the line to stretch us into end of November after OIC, when raising would certainly be easier than now.
    Or two, that although we have entered into a financing deal, the share price of it has not yet been determined. It could be set on the average of 30 day's trading or any other number of terms. Maybe we can't talk until the share price is fixed and we're trying to wait to fix the price hoping for a higher pps. This may be why, when the company announced it would wait to raise, the shorts sputtered for a day, then went back to holding us down. Perhaps shorts still can't allow the pps share to rise at all until the price of financing is locked in. Just thinking out load again.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Oct 21, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    Take it down, keep it down. That's it! The whole plan. Shhhhhh, Don't tell anyone.

  • Reply to

    Can't believe it, but...

    by biodrift Oct 21, 2014 9:24 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 21, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    Shorts just dumped over 200k shares to keep it below $3.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 20, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    We are the "Kings of KaKa." Thanks for the read Beton.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Oct 20, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    I must say that out trading today is pathetic. Perhaps the most damaging legacy of our endless short Attack is retail's reluctance to buy. Shorts are hanging on here by a thread right now! They are covering in tiny Price channels to hold this on no shares. This is literally all shorts. They are doing all the buying AND the selling. It's so bad it's actually screwing them up. I mean if someone other than a short would buy a share this could really run right now. And we're coming into a secondary drug catalyst!
    BUT WHO WANTS TO SWIM WITH SHARKS? Glad to have Tute support, but we need retail to stop shaking long enough to buy some shares. As Beton likes to say, "they are trying to CONDITION you,.." They might not have broken longs here who tend to trade on intellect, but retail is scared (s)hitless. Get it together retail, we"re in the $2's. Put your "big boy" pants on.

  • Reply to

    Major dilution ahead..

    by hawktim17 Oct 19, 2014 8:14 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 19, 2014 9:27 PM Flag

    Funny thing that Cerrrone is working overseas now and CTRV magically comes up with European money. Wonder where that European money is coming from and who's orchestrating it? Don't tell me your friends that tip you off from local brokerage houses aren't wired into the European markets? Guess you guys are flying blind. Welcome to the real world. And threatening naked short selling just confirms you guys are out of shares for now. Keep covering and maybe you can pick up enough shares to scare us again. Boo! Scared you. Going to cover now?

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 19, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    I follow zero hedge, but missed this gem. These guys are straight out thugs. Even this article only focuses on what some HFT traders do at the close. Here they manipulate all day every day for 18 months at a time. Anybody got news connections that could get someone to write a story on SGYP. Maybe then, the SEC would be forced to move. They could get our shorts on every type of HFT violation that exists. Our guys do it all, all day, all the time. Thanks for the post. If only it were new to me.

  • Reply to

    horserace---

    by indiansfan407 Oct 18, 2014 7:13 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 19, 2014 12:49 AM Flag

    They covered in earnest one day, the 1.4 million share day. Lots of selling that day, so it's hard to tell how many shares they really got. But even using very favorably estimates for them, it would take them about forty days to cover at that rate. Besides, they only did that one day because they were out of shares.
    So, first there is no evidence they are trying hard to get out. Then if they wanted to, it would still take them forty heavy days (1.4) to get out. Which would coincide with any run up to OIC data release, which makes no sense. There is no time now. And no financing news from the company. I refuse to even attempt to say when these guys will be gone. I thought they'd have to cover long before IBS. Wrong. They doubled down. But it's definately starting to look like their going to be here in January and February.
    The company could announce news that could cause a swift and violent cover, but I wouldn't hold your breath. waiting for that here. I'm beginning to think they're in "squish mode" for OIC like for our stunning IBS data release.
    Calling a day or a recent pattern is one thing. Calling what the shorts will do next, well that's something entirely different.
    This is what I do believe. We will raise the cash we need to continue our trials at whatever price. If the trials succeed we will create great value. When the trails are far enough along, someone will offer to buy us. If shorts have not covered yet, they will do so then. With luck, someone else will make and offer and we will get into a small bidding war. Sell for $20 on or before NDA with two positive phase Ii's for OIC and UC with sp333. Glta.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 18, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    Well said! You do "preach" instead of post. Find a "short" church with a podium instead of polluting our board

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 18, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    I strongly disagree. You've got this all wrong. They will be needing "lube" not Plecanatide. But I have a feeling pigs will fly before these guys serve time. My favorite quote come from the CEO of Charles Schwab, "most people are unaware that 95 percent of HFT trades are cancelled. What's up with that?"

  • Reply to

    I've been thinking,..

    by itsahorserace Oct 17, 2014 11:15 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Oct 18, 2014 1:37 AM Flag

    I know what you mean. You don't want to be perceived as naive, but you find yourself constantly amazed. And here it's not just the size of their position but it's duration that strains credulity. I'll be interested, if and when it ever happens, to see just how many shares they can cover per 10 cent move. I'm already sure it's not a fixed ratio. Surprisingly I'm finding the MM actually seems to affect tthis a lot. It appears they need to HFT in a 10 cent range or so, but that the more you cover the more the MM tightens the range until your can't get any shares at all HFT without having to notch up five cents on the range. I think to get a true picture you'll have to average over a time period. This lack of volume is also killing them. It's all so bizarre that I wonder if they might cover more shares into some buying volume than no volume at all because it would take more size on the bid to move it. Strange stuff. Learn everyday here. GL.

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