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PIMCO Total Return Active ETF Message Board

itsahorserace 218 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 5, 2015 11:39 PM Member since: Jun 4, 2004
  • Many have tried to get SGYP longs to sell, and failed. Most old longs are now up over a 100% here. Shorts will continue to short and longs will continue to hold. We see where this all leads, just look at the short interest numbers increase. And let's not forget, shorts are HFT'ing in the $9's here going into phase IIIB DATA. Let's see how far this must go up before shorts decide they've had enough. WHAT IS THE SHORT THESIS NOW?
    That we won't be sold as fast as longs here think? Wow! Now there's a reason to go short. Long and strong until buyout. Relax. Let the shorts do their things for a couple more months, and then catch the brass ring of buyout. Trust me shorts, dropping the pps 30% is not going to get a long up over 100% to sell. How are shorts supposed to scare me when I've got my eye on buyout in the months ahead instead of daily pps?

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Jul 4, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    Occasionally, you get a momo guy who's new to the stock come on the board. They talk like they barely know how to trade and try to suck information off the board. They make their play and sell, then their posts start to get more sophisticated. As long as they're not shorts, it's not so bad. Longteam did that. That's why so many people think he's a short and he has trouble posting here. He's here long now I believe. And now that he posts as himself, has made me think from time to time. Thoughtful guy. Itsa, who are you man? Are you doing the "newbie post thing?" Get real.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Jul 4, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    1. Never tell anyone how they should "feel,"
    2. Some intelligent longs don't "understand." Some are also growing weary of your self serving posts.
    3. That Hawktim is thanking you for your post speaks volumes.

  • Reply to

    Is this the SA article Seer was referring to???

    by hawk25702 Jul 3, 2015 10:48 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Jul 3, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    A good read.

  • For those of you that know me, I'm sure this won't surprise you. That fact notwithstanding, for some time people have put forward a theory that note holders are shorts. I think I have decided that this could be a very good thing for longs, but the thinking is a bit strange, and I could use some help from some deep-think longs here.
    1. When shorts borrow shares and put them into circulation, it has the "effect" of dilution on the stock, but the float does not actually increase. Technically speaking, there is no dilution. Ergo, when a short buys a share from the existing float and returns it to the borrower (covers) the effect is anti-dilutive but, again, the float remains the same.
    2. But what if a Short were to buy a share that "did not yet exist," a convertible share for example, and return that to the borrower. Again, the short purchases a share "not part of the existing float and returns that share to the lender?
    3. It seems to me that this would actually reduce the number of shares that could ultimately be converted. It would act almost like a corporate buy-back.
    4. Since all convertable shares convert on buyout, the actual number of shares at buyout able to be converted would be reduced, and the total dilution at the moment they all convert on buyout would be reduced thereby finally ACTUALLY reducing the float at the moment of conversion and buyout.
    5. If we could reduce the float by 20mm shares at buyout, I'm sure it wouldn't be to hard to calculate, but it's immediately clear we would all make more money.
    Am I right or am I missing some obvious point here.
    I kinda like the idea of noteholders actually reducing the float at buyout. Is it too good to be true?

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Jul 2, 2015 9:45 PM Flag

    Tell it like it is indiansfan. There will be no dilution except in shorts minds.

  • Reply to

    Convertible Notes

    by richinjun Jul 1, 2015 9:05 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Jul 2, 2015 7:47 PM Flag

    No. Can't do it. It would be great, but no.

  • This is very bad for shorts. In all honesty, I never thought we'd run this far. The data has been transformational.
    There will be many newly minted millionaire longs here very soon. I remember going on a board shortly after they had been bought. One simply posted, "I'm a multi-millionaire! I can't believe it actually happened!"
    As for all those who wonder if the shorts are gone. No! They're not. But if you want them to be gone, DONT sell to them, particularly in the months before buyout. Long and strong until buyout.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Jun 30, 2015 6:31 PM Flag

    Yes, SGYP Is a graveyard for many short aliases. Better stock up now, because you'll be burning through them fast. Will be very interesting to see next short interest report. Good luck aany, nice to see a name I recognize.

  • Still not to late to lose all your shares to shorts. Keep setting those stop lose trades momo's, shorts need your shares!

  • Reply to

    things are getting fun...

    by biodrift Jun 29, 2015 11:08 AM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Jun 29, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    Hate you folks that are good options traders. I'm envious! Got to increase my skill set to play with you guys. Good luck to you biodrift.

  • Reply to

    Shorts playing with momo traders.

    by itsahorserace Jun 26, 2015 1:41 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Jun 29, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    I'm thinking I nailed the $8.20 Friday close strategy. Think I guessed right.

  • Reply to


    by hawk25702 Jun 27, 2015 1:35 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Jun 27, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    We don't even track with the IBB. We live in a strange world trapped at the edge of a "short gravity well." If that's to esoteric, it's like on Star Trek when the enterprise gets stuck in some energy sucking cloud and everyone is going to die unless they break free. No worry. They always break free and truth and justice prevail. I mean really, what does it take to convince the skeptics to go long SGYP? We will be purchased. Patience. For those who can't wait, I have a good fortune teller.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Jun 26, 2015 9:17 PM Flag

    It's taken longs a long time to get a grip on short trading here and how they work. Newbies are using news letters and charting programs waiting for buy and sell flags to appear. Boy are they all in for a rude awakening. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. Add to that the fact these guys aren't "strong hands," and I believe You have a wonderful short setup to creat some serious momo pain coming after second phase Iii data read. Oh well. Hardened longs are ready for volatility up here. Experience! Don't sell these guys a single share. They trade with multiple accounts and a single algorithmic mind. Longs are completely disorganized, jumping over each other's backs to feed the short HFT machine. If only longs could be as organized as shorts. It gives shorts such an advantage, as if their HFT platform didn't already un-level the playing field. It's going to be volatile until buyout, absent some serious tune support. Don't worry. Long and strong until buyout is the answer.

  • Reply to

    Shorts playing with momo traders.

    by itsahorserace Jun 26, 2015 1:41 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Jun 26, 2015 4:16 PM Flag

    A few final unusual thoughts on the trading today. First, everyone should look at this chart today on a three minute candle. It's almost a perfect short HFT pattern day with them controlling both sides. The multiple green up moves punctuated by single red candle sells to trip the computer back down before buying more, then at the top of the green candles the selling starts and you go down down down. But if you count the shares traded more were aquired up than on taking it back down to the same price. Oh oh. Use the difference to keep driving the price down to new lows.. Rinse and repeat.
    I really thought these guys would close U.S. at $7.99 for the weekend. They certainly aquired the shares to do it. So why $8.23? Then it occurred to me that $8 - $7.90 is where all the stop losses are. So here's the plan, accumulate shares in stead of dropping it to $7.99. Hold the price at $8.20(missed by a few cents). Then swoop down in the morning with the accumulated shares and clean out all the stop loses again then take it from there. Have a good weekend longs. Long until buyout.

  • Reply to

    Shorts playing with momo traders.

    by itsahorserace Jun 26, 2015 1:41 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Jun 26, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    Shorts running it up and down. You can see it all in a 3 minute candle chart. Three to five up candles then three to five down candles. Count the shares on the up and down moves. They're able to pick up more on the up moves than down moves relative to Pps. HFT trading is the worst and should be taxed or outlawed. This is ALL short manipulation now. We need to wait until some new buying comes in.

  • Reply to

    Shorts playing with momo traders.

    by itsahorserace Jun 26, 2015 1:41 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Jun 26, 2015 1:48 PM Flag

    I'm conservatively with Cantor at $14.50.

  • Just ignore them. They know nothing about this stock.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Jun 26, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    Those trading channels don't last very long with shorts. If I was short, I'd be trying to close us under $8 for the weekend to depress longs. We might close oner $8 end of day, we'll see. Stop looking at charts and resistance. It's all about short will at this stage. Surprised we haven't traded in the $7's yet. Buy low, and don't sell to these guys once you do. Do you really want them to keep doing this to you forever?

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Jun 26, 2015 12:38 AM Flag

    Totally agree. It's called "the short wedgie" formation. I didn't see these results coming either. It's really changed things, and Paulson has put us on the celebrity map. Much less emotional disciple required when your up hundreds of K. Watching shorts thrash about now is just annoying. So are all the newly minted SGYP trading wizards. Man, the stuff you hear. And I thought we came up with weird theories. My best.

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