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PIMCO Total Return Active ETF Message Board

itsahorserace 186 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Jun 4, 2004
  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 7, 2016 8:31 PM Flag

    Occasionally you get a lone short posting, but no, the guys here were paid. thry try to provide a narrative to go along with the falling price. They're cheap to hire and no self-respecting hedge fund would short you with out hiring one. They past under numerous aliases so hen three new guys show up its usually just one. And the ID's will often talk to themselves. The highest paid guys in the service are called Silver Tongued Serpents. They like to ask "stock questions," if you know what I mean. Let me put it this way, if you knew you were talking to someone who couldn't care less about the stock and actually had no shares at all, how would you respond.
    Don't get me wrong, shorts aren't gone here, all you have to do is look at short interest to know that's far from true. But shorts are opportunists. When the bad news came out about the firings we were at $5.20. A certain group or hedge fund decided to short the bad news at $5.20. They were only able to get it down to $4.40 for moments and, instead of getting selling, they got buying from those that thought the news was non material. Then they spent a few days covering under $5 so they made a profit, but a tiny one. The timing of the new negative posters correlates with the short move. Then I said it looks like they were covering and the posters would go away. They did. They'll be back when the same hedge fund shorts this again for some reason. May have all new names though, sometimes the same. So, just this one short move in relation to the firing news covered. The 4mm short shares are still there. And nothing has changed in the big picture. Just a small failed short move.
    All my instincts tell me this was and is setting up for another run to $6.88 where it will either go sideways for a week ( short head fake) and climb to $9 or get shorted promptly down again to low $5's. By the way if it does get to $9 you can be guaranteed it will be shorted back down to five for a $4 dollar short swing.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 7, 2016 5:32 PM Flag

    Clearly you guys have something going that pre-dates my board appearance here.
    Having said that, I don't think the argument you want to be making is that our CEO and CFO were dumb and did nothing for us or the company while they were here. That makes us all look stupid for having had them here. The argument is that they were smart guys that advanced the company and its interests, but were, perhaps, too smart for their own good. They got greedy and let their temptations get the better of them. Now they're history and there are many smart people in biotech looking for a high paying job with tons of options.
    Greedy, yes; stupid do nothings, no.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 7, 2016 4:31 PM Flag

    Notice all the short posters flew away as soon as the cover happened. I keep trying to tell folks here they are not real people posting, they are paid by short hedge funds to spam and create doubt when they are trying to bring it down or cover. When they come back you'll know one thing: shorts are active here again. Actually, I think this is MM jerking it around above $5, not short hedgies. Don't forget the MM is one of the big shorts in this company. Sometimes it's the MM, sometimes it's short hedgies. Next time we run, shorts will short it at the high and try to bring it down again. Probably around $6.88. But once a year this usually pops to $9. Can never tell if this is the time.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 6, 2016 11:39 PM Flag

    Good riddance to bad rubbish. An accounting error would have been catastrophic, this just adds new life and perhaps gets rid of large contingent liabilities. Onward and forward and upwards and all of that.
    SGYP is my training ground for manipulation. If TROV is a cesspool, then SGYP is an ocean of sh$t. We've got a couple of months to run before Yellen drops her next raise on us in June, then no more for the year because of the election. We need our NDA NOW, if we miss the IBB run we'll stay lower longer. Sure hope we don't screw it up. Failure to dot an "i" right now will just crush us. We'll recover but it won't be pretty. Ibsc trial results should be very good. Good luck Common.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 6, 2016 11:24 PM Flag

    Short interest usually goes up (short selling) when they bring it down. High daily short interest indicates heavy HFT selling by shorts. Low short daily short interest often indicates covering as they buy shares to cover instead of selling them.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 6, 2016 9:50 PM Flag

    Just looked at daily short interest. It was 13%! They definitely covered out yesterday and this morning. Haven't seen a number that low on this stock in a long time. This is good.
    Looks like everyone is waiting around for a reason to bring this up. Some good news would be really helpful right now guys. You listening TROV? And I'm not expecting earnings yet. Way too early. Setting yourself up for a fall imho.

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Apr 6, 2016 7:34 PM Flag

    And some small covering here. We need the NDA acceptance to prosper. These guys are not letting us get away until the NDA is accepted, so the sooner the better now so we can participate in the bio rally.
    Shorts are going to have to get ripped out of their positions. Already happening in IBB today.
    Interest rate hike in June will not be fun though. Hang on longs.

  • That weird price pop and bring down yesterday was them closing out their recent failed short. They went for it, but the news just wasn't bad enough to support the short.
    Some of the paid short posters should drop off the board now that they've covered, with hope.
    Mentioned some time ago this wants to be a $5.20. Staging for next move.
    If a poster is not someone you trust, don't trust them. Thy are an endless negativity machine. Much different from an honest swing trader questioning if $6.88 will hold or be shorted.
    Good luck longs.

  • Reply to

    Whole CEO/CFO Drama Reflects Poor Job By Board

    by bitesr Apr 4, 2016 2:03 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 4, 2016 3:50 PM Flag

    Wisco, can't convince a short that he should go long. Some shorted the firing news and are still covering out. Notice they came on the board right after the news. Just talking their book. If you attack their thinking, they pull a Trump and start attacking you personally. Rhetorical devices are all you'll get from these guys .

  • itsahorserace by itsahorserace Apr 4, 2016 1:06 PM Flag

    And looks like they're covering some in sgyp too. Baby shorts, time to double down on your shorts, this is going to $2. Listen to all of your posting buddies, or do you ignore them all too.

  • Reply to

    Stupid longs who have loaded up here

    by itsahorserace Apr 1, 2016 11:54 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 2, 2016 9:15 PM Flag

    Ron, saw your post and my curiosity got the better of me and I had to unblock Bear for a moment to see what you were responding to. I must say that I was disappointed. In all honesty, I simply can't make sense of the first part of the post. I looked at my post again to see if I said sgyp couldn't be shorted and couldn't find it. We're at the bottom of a big bear raid.
    With respect to the second part of his post that this "could" be shorted down more. Well, that proves "too much." Anything "can" be shorted to zero theoretically. So, although the answer to his question is yes, it proves nothing and says nothing. Which begs the question, "then why say it?"
    Let me put this succinctly so all can understand: It is possible to swing a stock like sgyp buy buying shares at the bottom of highly oversold bear raids, and waiting for some catalyst to happen. Provided you have bought low (preferably right after a huge bear raid from $10 to $3.40 when next the company further diluted to force the conversion of convertible notes and the price runs to $2.50) when one of those catalyst things happen and the price goes up a couple of bucks, you can sell your shares for a profit and buy a car or something.
    Even VRX didn't go to zero. What's the point? Even for shorts.

  • Reply to

    Stupid longs who have loaded up here

    by itsahorserace Apr 1, 2016 11:54 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 2, 2016 12:48 PM Flag

    Agree with much you've said, but the move from $3.40 to $2.50 was not a retracement in my opinion, but rather owing to the retirement of notes. Not planned earlier by shorts.
    Buyout is the thing you don't talk about. It changes the trading dynamic a lot. I will swing FDA approval with 30 to 40k shares so I get paid for waiting for buyout, but will again hold my core of 124k shares for buyout or partnership into 2017. I have the funds to both swing the catalysts and hold for buyout. $15 will be a 50% premium to a $10 catalyst pop. My core shares are all long term capital gains. Held my core through phase III CIC becasue it was possible a buyout could have happened. Not a certainty as some suggested. FDA approval will also present a buyout window. A fifty million cash raise at $8.50 if they don't sell will pose little risk and small dilution. The longer we go, the more the enterprise value increases. $15 buyout becomes the low end for buyout by mid 2017. You can make money swinging, (bought a car for myself off of phase III) but to get rich you have to hold for buyout. $100k a year swinging sgyp is fine, but to get rich, you've just got to hold your core through the lows and highs until buyout or partnership. Got head faked in the $5's for some shares, but apart from that, feel pretty good about my position. Just wish my core was lower than mid $3's. But you can't time everything perfectly. Also, don't think we will ever see $3.50 again after FDA approval. But I could be mistaken. People forget I called the bring down after phase III if buyout didn't happen. Didn't call $2.50, but knew the company wouldn't hold its value if there was no buyout. But I'm long and a swing trader. I make them pay me while I wait. On our worst day in a bear market we sell for $8.50. If that's my long downside, I'm willing to ride my core up and down in the hope of $15. With my size, and long term capital gains treatment , that's a gigantic difference. glta.

  • Reply to

    Stupid longs who have loaded up here

    by itsahorserace Apr 1, 2016 11:54 PM
    itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 2, 2016 1:26 AM Flag


  • Will magically become smarter as the year rolls on. pps down = longs stupid; pps up = longs smart. Cant wait to be smart again. At least we know the MM is choking on shares down here, needs to sell some to some covering shorts.
    Just swung CTRV based on the fact that they were low on cash and the book runner would pop it to raise. Worked brilliantly. Had I been hindered by looking for "resistance," or at charts, or backfilling, or any fundamental measurements of the company, I would have missed the trade. Just sat there with my finger on the sell button as it ran knowing it wouldn't last for over an hour at the peak before being shorted back down. They promptly announced the cash raise as anticipated and the price plummeted immediately. At buyout both tutes and retail will finally be on equal footing. If you're retail, you get one day of the company's entire corporate life to be on an equal footing. It's a cesspool. You shouldn't have to cover yourself in sh:t to trade bio. Just saying,...

  • Have to have the patience of Job and the strength of Hurcules to hold SGYP. These guys will have to pry the shares out of my dead hands to get me to sell to them. Vegaskiller, you are not alone. Wonder if the shorts at Tesla will ever cover. Probably just hold their short for years, like Akman at Herbalife, hoping something goes wrong for them. Meanwhile, TROV's CEO AND CFO team up to steal a corporate opportunity of Trov's for themselves, get caught and fired. Thanks for setting back my swing there for a while with your fraud. It's a #$%$*ing cesspool out there. Got to wear knee- boots to trade or invest. Not even sure you can "invest" anymore.
    Guess you can tell I'm in a good mood today. Oh well. Long and strong. Dead hands I tell you. GLTA.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Apr 1, 2016 1:12 AM Flag

    Weasel answer as set forth above. Cuts the legs off your argument. Ergo, you have no clue as to why the central premise of your argument might be true. Didn't think so.
    This board's going the way of the sgyp board. The minute people start speaking the truth here on the board, it becomes inhabited by paid trolls, to silence the rebellion. It's not enough to control the pps,..they have to control your mind or end reasonable discourse.
    Next starts the clone I'd wars. Posters appear with nearly identical id's to both bashers and longs saying ridiculous things.
    Thought this issue was important enough to to write about.
    After blocking all the paid alias bashers on sgyp which is being heavily shorted right now, I showed three post on the whole board. There is no board there anymore. Hope that doesn't happen here.
    If I have any legacy here I would have it be as a tireless proponent of the idea that baby biotechs are perpetuall manipulated by short hedge funds ganging up with Russian programmed HFT trading platforms and doing whatever they want with the pps. Particularly in small float companies like TROV. Add the MM's complicity and interest in following HFT shorts because of the volume they generate, and you have a real cesspool.
    Just swung 16k shares at Ctrv a few days ago along with a friend. Bought at $1.10 sold at $2.10. So the trade worked well. But the sad thing was our premise. We knew the company was running on fumes and would need to raise. figured the book runners would run it up for a day and and announce a cash raise the next day. They popped it, we sold it and they announce the raise. Being propped up today at $1.23 until the raise settles.
    Point is resistance points and charts and backfilling and and everything else you might think of would only have gotten in your way of making this trade. It was purely predicated on predicting a certain pattern of manipulation.
    Oh yeah, helps to start with a good company.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 31, 2016 7:58 PM Flag

    Perfect! I was going to write about that too, but was already too long winded. Put it together with the intent to keep it secret from the company and it looks pretty bad. Nothing is ever a lock, but it looks very bad for these guys. Hope they all work it out.

  • Some have repeatedly posted that the CEO AND CFO were fired to avoid paying severance. This implies that the board wanted to fire them both before this event and that this simply gave them a chance to fire them WITHOUT having to pay them severance. Here is my question to you: why did they want to fire the CEO and CFO before this event. CEO says this firing came as a complete surprise to him as well. No weasel answers either. Not knowing why would be a weasel answer and cut the legs out of your argument. Tell me why they wanted to fire them before this event.
    More attempts to create controversy where none exists. Ignore these guys. The more I read about the relationships involved, the worse it gets. These guys were like Icarus, they flew too close to the sun and their wings fell off. The company will likely settle, but on their terms.
    What's going to kill these guys is the secrecy and lies to the board. It speaks to intent. If they weren't dirty, why would they have gone to such efforts to hide it all from the company and then lie to the board when asked if they were involved with more. They were drumming up financing on the sly, and never approached the company to ask if they might want to invest? And wouldn't you think if this was all ok they might have asked those at the company if THEY wanted to get in on this deal? All this money sitting right next to them in the office, and they are secretly trying to raise cash out of it and lying to the board about it? Give me a break.
    Someone wants the pps to go down. And who would that be? It's always shorts! I go nuts hearing people argue with paid short posters. They're PAID to post endlessly. You can't compete with that and you can't CONVINCE a paid poster of anything. They're paid to create negativity and doubt! ahhhhhhhhh.

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Mar 31, 2016 3:23 PM Flag

    You have repeatedly posted that the CEO AND CFO were fired to avoid paying severance. This implies that the board wanted to fire them both before this event and that this simply gave them a chance to fire them WITHOUT having to pay them severance. Here is my question to you: why did they want to fire the CEO and CFO before this event. CEO says this firing came as a complete surprise to him as well. No weasel answers either. Not knowing why would be a weasel answer and cut the legs out of your argument. Tell me why they wanted to fire them before this event.

  • I'm locked, loaded, stuffed, bursting with shares, and "raring to swing," but pps is behaving like someone poured gallons epoxy on it and it's slowly hardening. About time we hear from the FDA on our NDA so we can lurch incrementally forward with this whale of a short on our back. Can't wait for Pearson to reveal his previously undisclosed SGYP connection during his testimony. If Hillary mentioned our name we'd probably double just from the exposure. Long and strong. Good night longs.

105.69-0.04(-0.04%)May 26 4:00 PMEDT