For those of you that know me, I'm sure this won't surprise you. That fact notwithstanding, for some time people have put forward a theory that note holders are shorts. I think I have decided that this could be a very good thing for longs, but the thinking is a bit strange, and I could use some help from some deep-think longs here.
1. When shorts borrow shares and put them into circulation, it has the "effect" of dilution on the stock, but the float does not actually increase. Technically speaking, there is no dilution. Ergo, when a short buys a share from the existing float and returns it to the borrower (covers) the effect is anti-dilutive but, again, the float remains the same.
2. But what if a Short were to buy a share that "did not yet exist," a convertible share for example, and return that to the borrower. Again, the short purchases a share "not part of the existing float and returns that share to the lender?
3. It seems to me that this would actually reduce the number of shares that could ultimately be converted. It would act almost like a corporate buy-back.
4. Since all convertable shares convert on buyout, the actual number of shares at buyout able to be converted would be reduced, and the total dilution at the moment they all convert on buyout would be reduced thereby finally ACTUALLY reducing the float at the moment of conversion and buyout.
5. If we could reduce the float by 20mm shares at buyout, I'm sure it wouldn't be to hard to calculate, but it's immediately clear we would all make more money.
Am I right or am I missing some obvious point here.
I kinda like the idea of noteholders actually reducing the float at buyout. Is it too good to be true?
Tell it like it is indiansfan. There will be no dilution except in shorts minds.
This is very bad for shorts. In all honesty, I never thought we'd run this far. The data has been transformational.
There will be many newly minted millionaire longs here very soon. I remember going on a board shortly after they had been bought. One simply posted, "I'm a multi-millionaire! I can't believe it actually happened!"
As for all those who wonder if the shorts are gone. No! They're not. But if you want them to be gone, DONT sell to them, particularly in the months before buyout. Long and strong until buyout.
Yes, SGYP Is a graveyard for many short aliases. Better stock up now, because you'll be burning through them fast. Will be very interesting to see next short interest report. Good luck aany, nice to see a name I recognize.
Still not to late to lose all your shares to shorts. Keep setting those stop lose trades momo's, shorts need your shares!
Hate you folks that are good options traders. I'm envious! Got to increase my skill set to play with you guys. Good luck to you biodrift.
We don't even track with the IBB. We live in a strange world trapped at the edge of a "short gravity well." If that's to esoteric, it's like on Star Trek when the enterprise gets stuck in some energy sucking cloud and everyone is going to die unless they break free. No worry. They always break free and truth and justice prevail. I mean really, what does it take to convince the skeptics to go long SGYP? We will be purchased. Patience. For those who can't wait, I have a good fortune teller.
It's taken longs a long time to get a grip on short trading here and how they work. Newbies are using news letters and charting programs waiting for buy and sell flags to appear. Boy are they all in for a rude awakening. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. Add to that the fact these guys aren't "strong hands," and I believe You have a wonderful short setup to creat some serious momo pain coming after second phase Iii data read. Oh well. Hardened longs are ready for volatility up here. Experience! Don't sell these guys a single share. They trade with multiple accounts and a single algorithmic mind. Longs are completely disorganized, jumping over each other's backs to feed the short HFT machine. If only longs could be as organized as shorts. It gives shorts such an advantage, as if their HFT platform didn't already un-level the playing field. It's going to be volatile until buyout, absent some serious tune support. Don't worry. Long and strong until buyout is the answer.
A few final unusual thoughts on the trading today. First, everyone should look at this chart today on a three minute candle. It's almost a perfect short HFT pattern day with them controlling both sides. The multiple green up moves punctuated by single red candle sells to trip the computer back down before buying more, then at the top of the green candles the selling starts and you go down down down. But if you count the shares traded more were aquired up than on taking it back down to the same price. Oh oh. Use the difference to keep driving the price down to new lows.. Rinse and repeat.
I really thought these guys would close U.S. at $7.99 for the weekend. They certainly aquired the shares to do it. So why $8.23? Then it occurred to me that $8 - $7.90 is where all the stop losses are. So here's the plan, accumulate shares in stead of dropping it to $7.99. Hold the price at $8.20(missed by a few cents). Then swoop down in the morning with the accumulated shares and clean out all the stop loses again then take it from there. Have a good weekend longs. Long until buyout.
Shorts running it up and down. You can see it all in a 3 minute candle chart. Three to five up candles then three to five down candles. Count the shares on the up and down moves. They're able to pick up more on the up moves than down moves relative to Pps. HFT trading is the worst and should be taxed or outlawed. This is ALL short manipulation now. We need to wait until some new buying comes in.
Just ignore them. They know nothing about this stock.
Those trading channels don't last very long with shorts. If I was short, I'd be trying to close us under $8 for the weekend to depress longs. We might close oner $8 end of day, we'll see. Stop looking at charts and resistance. It's all about short will at this stage. Surprised we haven't traded in the $7's yet. Buy low, and don't sell to these guys once you do. Do you really want them to keep doing this to you forever?
Totally agree. It's called "the short wedgie" formation. I didn't see these results coming either. It's really changed things, and Paulson has put us on the celebrity map. Much less emotional disciple required when your up hundreds of K. Watching shorts thrash about now is just annoying. So are all the newly minted SGYP trading wizards. Man, the stuff you hear. And I thought we came up with weird theories. My best.
Big wedge formed in shorts underwear. If you were short, how would you want to close out on
Friday? Strong negative 8 one day money flow today (Nasdaq stock consultant) correlates perfectly with today's bring down. Last couple of days have been mostly all shorts on both sides of the trade. Right now they can do whatever they want. Guessing what they want to do is harder.
Sorry profitize, I was posting at the same time you were. Would have simply joined your thread.
Shorts may be averaging up as trader suggested. I keep thinking that shorts only cover and sell, but they can average up too. Frankly, I don't think you can churn millions of shares in the $8's without doing that. I like all the buyout talk, but people expecting a deal tomorrow, every day, seems premature. I try not to call the unknowable, like buyout. Hell, we've already paid a fortune for our first ibsc Phase Iii trial. And the last phase Ii data set for ibsc was even better than for Plecanitide. Fantastic secondary endpoint data. Maybe we should get more bang for our buck here. Certainly in no rush, irrespective of the short consequences. Glta.